Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 300454
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

AVIATION...
WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW HAS PASSED TERMINALS
SWITCHING WINDS TO NERLY FOR THE TIME. NEW CONVECTION IS FORMING
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH WINDS RETURNING
SOUTHERLY BY TUE AFTN.

.UPDATE...
AN MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AREA AND
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO HAVE SHOWN IT TO BE SLOWLY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP OVER
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR BACKS UP THE SW MOVEMENT OF THIS COMPLEX.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. ALSO BUMPED UP
WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO REFLECT THE
ONGOING CONVECTION...HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHTER AND
MORE VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS STORMS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DISSIPATED LATE THIS MORNING
LEAVING BEHIND A SOMEWHAT STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPED
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS ALSO DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONGER JET STREAM DIVING SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS. ALL OF THESE
WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. BELIEF IS THAT THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHING
ANY CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DAYTIME MIXING
HAS INCREASED THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH AND COMPUTER MODELS PLACE
CLOUD BASES SOMEWHERE AROUND 7000 FEET AGL AND WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS... EXPECT TO SEE A FEW STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY EARLY
ON. CONVECTION MAY LAST PAST MIDNIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AS
LIFT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAM MOVES SOUTH OVER
THE AREA.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND A BIT WARMER AS SUBSIDENCE SETTLES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE STILL IS
SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE BUT A LACK OF BOTH FORCING AND
SURFACE FEATURES TO SERVE AS INITIATION POINTS PRECLUDES PUTTING
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
TODAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONVECTION COULD EASILY MAKE A RETURN LATER THIS
WEEK AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
DRIVING MUCH OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTION. STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS
WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WHICH COULD
PRIMARILY LEAD TO STORMS PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE COULD EVEN SEE A WASH OUT FOR THE JULY 4
FESTIVITIES WHICH HAS BEEN KNOW TO OCCUR. A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVING DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST WILL LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER STRETCH OF BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

CONVECTION MAY HAVE A TOUGHER TIME DEVELOPING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA. THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY KEEP CONVECTION RELEGATED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE BUILDING
HEIGHTS...WEST TEXAS MAY BE SPARED FROM THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  67  94 /  20   0   0  10
TULIA         65  92  69  94 /  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     66  92  68  92 /  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     66  92  68  93 /  20   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       68  92  70  93 /  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  91  66  93 /  20   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    66  93  67  93 /  20   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     71  97  74  98 /  30   0   0   0
SPUR          68  93  70  93 /  30   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     71  96  73  96 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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