000
FXUS64 KLUB 161722
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN STORMS FORMING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT
TIMING OF THIS WAVE MAY BE TOO QUICK TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN WEST TEXAS. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
AROUND 70KT WAS MOVING OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND SPREADING OVER WEST
TEXAS. ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT BE ON THE FAVORABLE SIDE OF THIS JET
WITH MORE FAVORABLE AREAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND AREAS NORTH.

TWO AREAS MAY BE FAVORED FOR INITIATION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A
DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH WAS FORMING NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. CONVERGENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY
STRONG ALONG THIS FIRST POSSIBLE AREA OF INITIATION. WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN LOCATIONS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 27/US HIGHWAY 87. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KT
OVER THE FA IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS ALTHOUGH BETTER
SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF HAIL WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
EAST. THIS MORNING BEGAN VERY JUICY AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME MID
TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS STILL HANGING ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. SURFACE INSTABILITY VALUES
WILL GREATLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODEL PROGS DEPICTING
CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CAPPING. AREAS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT REMAINING CAPPED.
A VERY RICH LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO GROW THIS
AFTERNOON CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE FA. GIVEN YESTERDAYS TREND OF
STORMS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE LOCATION OF THE THETA-E AXIS
INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN STORMS FORMING OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS.

A SECOND AREA OF INITIATION MAY BE LOCATED IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED IN THE
PANHANDLE LATE THIS MORNING AND MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUS FOR
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE...MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MAY BE EXPECTED OVER
THE PANHANDLE. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE
DISCUSSED ABOVE AND STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT
BECOMING SEVERE. CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE PROLONGED THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDING FAVORABLE LIFT.
JDV

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED AT
BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WEST OF KLBB AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS
THE TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT KCDS EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THIS CYCLE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

SHORT TERM...
UA RIDGING STRETCHING FROM NERN OLD MEXICO /WHERE THE CENTER IS
LOCATED/ TO NEAR THE NW PACIFIC CONUS HAS RESULTED IN WNW FLOW
ALOFT. FURTHER AMPLIFICATION LATER THIS EVENING WILL VEER FLOW CLOSE
TO NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS WILL BE EXPLAINED
SHORTLY. LOOKING AT THE SFC...LIGHT SERLY SFC WINDS AND A 20-30 KT
LLJ ENSUED EARLY THIS MORNING ...THUS CAUSING MOIST LOW LEVELS TO
PERSIST /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/. THE MUCH DRIER AIR WAS NOTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO. RADAR ANALYSIS DISPLAYED A SMALL COMPLEX
OF STORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THANKS IN
PART TO AN EMBEDDED WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP HAS COMMENCED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHWARD PERIPHERY OF THE COMPLEX...WHICH
COULD NEAR THE SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BEFORE IT FINALLY DWINDLES
LATER THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTN...MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ENDURE AND THEREFORE PROGGED PWATS
AOA 1.00 INCH WILL EXIST. THE NEARBY UA RIDGE WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK
IN HEIGHT FIELDS AND HENCE...TEMPS WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORM
/MID TO UPPER 90S/. A SFC TROUGH DRAPED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CI. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...FLOW ALOFT VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE NW IS IMPORTANT
BECAUSE THIS IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR NEW MEXICO STORMS BEING
CAPABLE OF IMPACTING THE CWA. WITH THE BEST MID-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS
AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO SETUP ACROSS THE CWFA /ALONG
WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES AND THE WNW FLOW ALOFT/...IT IS NO WONDER
THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW STORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTN-TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND 2.0 KJ/KG OF MID-LEVEL
CAPE...BUT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A NOTABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
MECHANISM...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. FORECAST
SOLUTIONS SHOW AN MCS MOVING SE ACROSS SW KANSAS...POSSIBLY BRUSHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND THE FAR SERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH 1.00 INCH PWATS...ONE WOULD
THINK THAT MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PLAUSIBLE.
HOWEVER...ADEQUATE SPEEDS ALOFT IS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE THE
OVERALL STORM MOTION SHOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY SLOW.

LONG TERM...
STILL LOOKING LIKE PRETTY GOOD RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
WEAK...FLAT UPPER RIDGING WITH WEST TO WNW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE FCST AREA
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST STORMS ROLLING IN FROM THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND POSSIBLY ALSO FORMING ALONG THE FRONT. CHC
POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK FINE WITH A NUDGE UPWARDS FOR POPS MONDAY
NIGHT AS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FURTHER.

TRANSITION THEN OCCURS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE SRN AND CNTL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NWRN CONUS. AS A RESULT SHOULD SEE STORMS REMAIN ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF CNTL NM FROM
MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S WITH SOME TRIPLE-DIGIT READINGS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION PARTICULARLY TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO BE AT ITS STRONGEST POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  65  88  63  86 /  30  30  30  50  30
TULIA         93  68  88  64  82 /  30  30  30  40  30
PLAINVIEW     93  69  89  66  85 /  30  30  30  50  30
LEVELLAND     92  69  92  66  89 /  40  40  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       95  71  93  67  89 /  40  40  30  50  30
DENVER CITY   93  67  92  66  92 /  40  40  30  40  20
BROWNFIELD    94  69  92  67  91 /  40  40  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     96  72  94  70  88 /  50  50  30  50  30
SPUR          96  73  95  69  88 /  30  30  30  50  30
ASPERMONT     97  75  98  73  90 /  30  30  30  50  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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