Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 282046
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE AS A SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY SETTLES IN
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF YSTDY/S COLD FRONT. THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS IS NOT EXCEEDINGLY DRY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING
NEAR 30F IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 40F IN THE SOUTH...SO THE THREAT OF A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS LOOKS PRETTY
LOW. STILL...IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE IN SOME OF
THE LOCAL DRAINAGES ACROSS THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CURRENT CIRRUS
FIELD SHOULD SHOULD PASS EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RANGER FROM THE UPPER 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW COMPELTE WITH ONE MORE DRY COLD FRONT BY
LATE THURSDAY WILL BUCKLE SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID-WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH NO INTRUSIONS OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS FORESEEN DURING THIS TIME...MANY LOCALES
ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD EASILY SURPASS THEIR AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE
DATES BY A WEEK IF NOT EVEN LONGER.

THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED REALM CONCERNS PRECIP
CHANCES...THE FIRST ON FRIDAY WITH A SECOND AND MORE PRONOUNCED
OPPORTUNITY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING A DRY BACKDOOR COLD
FROPA LATE THURSDAY...A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STALLING FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS. DRY SURFACE
RIDGING HOWEVER LOOKS QUITE STOUT ACROSS THE CWA ALL DRY FRI WITH
ONLY SOME THICKER CLOUDS ADVANCING ACROSS THE TX-NM STATE LINE...
SO PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO BELOW MENTION AREA WIDE.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO BE SHIFTING OVERHEAD DURING THIS
TIME FURTHER LIMITING BACKGROUND ASCENT.

BREEZY RETURN FLOW ENSUES THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SPUR LEE TROUGHING ACROSS NERN NM AND ERN
CO. MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD RAMP UP BY SAT NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LOW CLOUDS FOR SUN MORNING...BUT THIS MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE
SHALLOW UNTIL PEAKING BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT.
DEEP SWLY FLOW COULD SHUNT MUCH OF THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINING ELSEWHERE. LOW RESOLUTION RUNS OF THE ECMWF SINCE LAST
EVENING HAVE ABANDONED THE ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW IN THE DESERT SW
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN FAVOR OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH VERY MUCH AKIN
TO THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN...SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAS TRENDED
DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH DECENT RAIN
CHANCES /FOR DAY 7 STANDARDS/ REMAINING OFF THE CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  70  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         37  69  44  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     38  70  45  72  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  70  48  74  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       40  70  48  75  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   40  71  50  75  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    40  71  50  74  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     41  74  46  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          40  72  49  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     43  74  50  81  52 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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