Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 230938

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
438 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016


A low pressure system is located across southern
Saskatchewan this morning with a couple of waves rotating about
it. The first, of little consequence to us, is approaching the
Great Lakes with the next extending from srn WY into wrn Sonora.
The trough to our west is attempting to establish a closed
circulation. The trough axis will remain to our west today leaving
us southwesterly flow aloft. A jet axis will be placed from KTCS
to KDHT to KSLN this afternoon leaving us in the right entrance
region and thus providing a favorable lift regime.

Unfortunately southwesterly surface winds will bring in somewhat
drier air and help to limit coverage to some extent for much of the
day.  Into the evening hours, however, there are some hints that
winds will start to back just a little as the trough axis nudges a
bit closer.  Overall, the setup is far from a slam dunk for rainfall
so will highlight the corridor near the area of max theta-e this
afternoon and tonight for the best shot of rain.  With little shear
yet good instability, we may see a few storms pulse to become strong.


The cold front that models had been showing to move through and even
stall across the South Plains on Thursday now appears to be backing
off. The high pressure across the southeastern U.S. may be building
in slightly too strong, keeping the front from being able to make
its way very far south. Models now want to keep the front in the
northern to central TX Panhandle, though they do hint at a pre-
frontal trough of precipitation...much like we saw this
weekend...moving through early Thursday morning. This would give the
entire FA a shot at showers/thunderstorms, but the cooler
temperatures and soaking rains do not look likely. We do at least
look to stay at or just below normal for highs through the extended.

We do keep slight chance PoPs in through the weekend as moisture
should continue to rotate around the southeastern high. By the
beginning of next week, though, we see a flattening of the ridge
with the start of the transition to a ridge over the south central
and southwestern U.S., effectively cutting off the monsoonal
moisture from our area.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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