Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 220942
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
442 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
00Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850HPA.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD
FRONT STALLED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN
A SOMEWHAT MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME MID TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THESE
WILL BE CARRIED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY
SUNRISE.  EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE RIDGE APPROACHES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND CARRY IT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  THE MOST OPTIMISTIC
ARE THE TTU-WRF AND NAM12 WHICH BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
MIX FAIRLY DEEP THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH
INVERTED-V PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION.  A SMALL INVERSION ON TOP OF
THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MEANS THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A CAP TO
OVERCOME DURING THE DAY AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.  ONLY POSITIVE IS THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION AND SUSTAIN ANY STORMS...ALLOWING THEM TO MAKE IT
ACROSS THE STATE LINE.  FEEL THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAKING
IT INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS IS PRETTY SLIM BUT NON-ZERO.  WILL
CONTINUE CARRY NON-MENTIONABLE POPS AROUND 10-12 PERCENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL THEN BE IN STORE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 15 MPH KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO GET THE LION/S SHARE OF ATTENTION IN THIS
LONG TERM PACKAGE COURTESY OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND ACTIVE
DRYLINE. FOLLOWING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EARLY MORNING
SPRINKLES ON WED FROM A LEAD IMPULSE...STRONG HEATING AND DEEP
MIXING LOOK TO EASILY BREACH THE MODEST EML LID BY EARLY-TO-MID
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS AND THE STREAK OF MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE BEEN
CONVECTING THIS DAY...DECIDED TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTORM WORDING IN THE FORECAST AS INITIATION IS A GOOD BET IN SUCH
A SETUP. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO THE DRYLINE RESIDING WEST
OF I-27 BY 18Z WED...SO ISOLATED TSTORMS WERE NUDGED WEST A BIT...
HOWEVER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT WILL SEE TO IT THAT THESE
STORMS ARE SENT PACKING OFF THE CAPROCK BEFORE 00Z. POINT SOUNDINGS
ARE MOST IMPRESSIVE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SBCAPES APPROACH
3000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER LCL HEIGHTS RELATIVE TO LOCATIONS
FARTHER WEST. SUBSTANTIAL CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER ALONE
IS A RED FLAG FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...BUT ADD TO THIS FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND ANY HAIL COULD CERTAINLY GROW TO
SIGNIFICANT SIZES. RATHER HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WOULD ALSO FOSTER
DOWNBURSTS...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LESSER OF THE THREATS SO FAR.

THE DRYLINE SHOULD HANG UP IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WED EVENING
WITH THE BRUNT OF STORMS QUICKLY DEPARTING EAST...BUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY BE HARD TO COME BY AS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT UPPER
FLOW MOVES IN WITH THE BASE OF THE 300MB TROUGH. OPTED TO LEAVE
SOME POPS IN THE EVENING OUT EAST BEFORE NIXING MENTION ALTOGETHER
BY 06Z. A COLD FRONT IS THEN DRAGGED SOUTH BEHIND THE TROUGH EARLY
THU MORNING BEFORE A MODIFIED RETURN FLOW RESUMES ON FRI AHEAD OF
A MORE VIGOROUS AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON SATURDAY. DID KEEP
THE INHERITED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTN AND
NIGHT OFF THE CAPROCK AS SUCH A FORMIDABLE LOOKING TROUGH COULD
EASILY ACCELERATE THE RETURN OF EVEN RICHER MIXING RATIOS BACK
INTO THE REGION...WHILE ALSO PULLING THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN
MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST. WEST OF THIS DRYLINE...BLOWING DUST MAY BE
IN THE CARDS PROVIDED A 30-40 KNOT 850MB WIND MAX UNFOLDS AS PROGGED
BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THEREAFTER...THE NEG TILT TROUGH LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF AND BEGIN WOBBLING E-SE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE
A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS UPPER LOW...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER BOUT OF SOME FREEZING LOWS
IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THREE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOW LOOK A BIT
MORE ATTAINABLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS WEST OF A MORTON
TO DIMMITT LINE. POST-DRYLINE WINDS BY THIS TIME SHOULD REACH 20
MPH AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND
EVENTUALLY SINGLE DIGITS. THE STRONGEST AND MOST CONSISTENT WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE FARTHER NORTH IN THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
UNDER A 30-35 KNOT WIND MAX AT 850MB...SO THERE IS STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE NECESSARY WIND SPEED AND DURATION MAY PROVE TOO
INTERMITTENT DESPITE VERY LOW RH VALUES. THEREAFTER...A MORE
DEFINITIVE FIRE WEATHER SETUP MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK BY SATURDAY IN EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  54  83  45  75 /   0  10  10   0   0
TULIA         82  56  84  47  76 /   0   0  20   0   0
PLAINVIEW     82  57  84  49  77 /   0   0  20   0   0
LEVELLAND     82  60  87  48  79 /   0  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       83  59  87  51  79 /   0   0  20   0   0
DENVER CITY   82  61  86  51  77 /   0  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    81  61  87  48  79 /   0   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     85  57  86  58  79 /   0   0  50  30   0
SPUR          83  59  86  54  80 /   0   0  30  20   0
ASPERMONT     86  59  88  60  80 /   0   0  20  30   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033.

&&

$$

14/93





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