Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 210442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1142 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.


Northwest flow aloft will persist over the next 24
hours as high pressure aloft drifts to the Sun Country of West
Texas. Wind speeds will rapidly diminish around sunset as a
surface high settles in to our northeast. Return southerly flow
should set up overnight across the western 2/3rds of the area
though the Rolling Plains may end up with near calm winds toward
sunrise though overall, winds will be fairly light area-wide. This
scenario begs concern for freeze potential overnight. At this
point, surface dewpoints to our north do not indicate any
substantial drying. The lowest objective Td values make it down to
only about 30 degrees which would tend to make it quite
challenging for the air temp to hit 32. While a station making 32
or a degree or two cooler is not out of the question, confidence
is only about 20-30 pct and thus shy of watch criteria. If a
freeze occurs, it would most likely affect Castro, Swisher,
Briscoe, Lamb, Hale, and Floyd counties and likely be confined to
low-lying areas which experience cold air drainage. Perhaps the
most likely counties to see a light freeze might be Floyd and
Briscoe as they should see the best juxtaposition of light winds
and minimized southerly flow.

Warming temperatures will again dominate the weather pattern
through next week.

Temperatures will quickly warm up after today`s more fall like
day. A 589 decameter ridge will move across central Texas this
weekend increasing heights/thickness values. Surface pressure
troughing to the west will increase afternoon winds out of the
southwest giving us a more favorable pattern for warming
temperatures as well. A cold front will stall out north of the
region as surface ridging spills onto the Northern Plains and
Midwest. Although record values are not anticipated, temperatures
on the order of 10-15 degrees above normal are expected. We may
see a little reprieve around Tuesday next week as a weak short
wave moves overhead bringing cloud cover and lower heights. Some low
level moisture will return but thunder chances will be low with
the weak short wave. After Tuesday, both the GFS and ECMWF bring
even stronger upper level ridging overhead keeping warm
temperatures around.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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