Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 232035

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
335 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

A well defined short wave seen on water vapor imagery was moving
overhead. As expected, the only direct result was high level
cloudiness over the Rolling Plains and portions of the South
Plains. It has kept temperatures a few degrees lower across the
Rolling Plains than the rest of the area, however. Subsidence will
fill in the wake of the departing short wave this evening leading
to clearing skies. This will allow temperatures to drop a few more
degrees than seen this morning for areas off the caprock. Short
wave ridging will move overhead tomorrow but thickness values will
be decreasing. Therefore, temperatures will be lower than observed
today as a stalled out cold front retreats northward tomorrow.

The ridge will quickly flatten out during the day as another
shortwave moves across the region on Tuesday. It still appears
that the passage will be dry as the only model showing
precipitation is the GFS late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning. All other models generate quite a bit of cloud cover as
low level moisture returns ahead of this wave in the early morning
hours. Still is some question how thick the cloud cover will be
but it should be enough to keep temperatures from warming up much
while also limiting the amount of surface-based instability. After
the shortwave passes, a weak front will move into the area
Wednesday but do little more than hold temperatures in check. The
last 3 days of this forecast will be marked by ridging aloft with
southerly flow, and temperatures remaining generally around 5
degrees above normal for this time of year.



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