Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 181149

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
649 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Upper level trough still edging across the area, with low level
outflow spreading southward from the Panhandle. A few showers as
well, but at the moment too sparse to immediately approach any of
the TAF`s. Low cloud bands associated with outflow appear to be
near high end of the MFR layer, based on upstream reports from
KAMA. The KPVW Metar has been out all night, unsure why, but we
are unable to access by any means. However, have opted to retain
the KPVW TAF though along with the "AMD NOT SKED" remark appended.
Quite a bit of convective energy will be around again with good
surface warming today. Solutions a bit mixed on thunderstorm
potential, as a somewhat more subsident airmass should be
following. Current TAF`s will not indicate a thunder mention for
later today. VFR otherwise with modest low level southeast to
southerly flow. RMcQueen


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017/

Chances of precipitation will generally be lower until this
weekend when a change in the weather pattern occurs.

A ribbon of stronger jet level winds will shift more to the south
today. This will lead to more large scale subsidence over the
forecast area. However, a surface pressure trough over eastern New
Mexico will enhance the low level convergence by this afternoon. A
low level theta-e ridge will be jetting up through the I-27
corridor this afternoon. Models are progging a respectable
1500-2000 J/kg within this axis of higher theta-e air. Models are
either mixed or waffling on whether any convection will occur
today. Isolated convective activity is still possible this
afternoon but less coverage than Sunday is expected. Tuesday will
bring more uncertainty as stronger westerly flow pushes a dryline
off the caprock. Thunderstorm activity appears to be probable east
of the dryline, over the Rolling Plains on Tuesday. A brief drying
out looks to take place around Wednesday and Thursday.

Attention will then turn to this weekend where a deep trough will
carve itself out of the western CONUS. Upper level winds will
begin to back as early as Wednesday in advance of this system. A
slow moving trough suggests that a possibility of several days of
thunderstorm activity persisting into the first half of next week.
The upper level pattern suggests that we will be under a deep
stream of Pacific moisture. Initial activity early in the weekend
would favor western areas spreading eastward late in the weekend
into early next week. CIPS analog guidance also indicates a wet
pattern with a swath of heavy rainfall through the region.




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