Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 190851
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHINESS ON BOTH
COASTS WITH RIDGING ALONG 100W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAKNESS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.  BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS EVIDENT
FROM NWRN MEXICO INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH ANOTHER LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS ACROSS THE SWRN 2/3RDS OF TEXAS. THE
BEST...ALBEIT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIV-Q FIELDS WILL REMAIN OVER SE TX
THOUGH A FEW RIPPLES OF ENERGY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SOCAL LOW WILL
PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT MAINLY TO OUR NORTHWEST.  MORE IMPORTANTLY
THOUGH MAY BE THE FACT THAT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE WEAK IN AN
AIRMASS SUCH AS WE HAVE THIS MORNING.  GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
MONSOON-DERIVED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING MOST NOTABLY AT H7.  THIS WILL HELP AID
IN DESTABILIZATION AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ESTABLISH SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION THOUGH SUBSIDENT INVERSION AROUND 550MB MAY SERVE TO
SUPPRESS UPDRAFTS INITIALLY.  WITH ANEMIC SHEAR PROFILES...FAIRLY SHORT
DURATION PULSE STORMS WITH OUTFLOW REGENERATION PROCESSES APPEAR
PROBABLE WITH STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL.  INSOFAR AS SPATIAL
EXTENT...THIS IS A BIT TRICKY.  A WEAK AND BROAD MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP PULL DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AROUND TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.  THETA E FIELDS FROM THE SFC TO H7 DO
SHOW A MINOR MAXIMUM FROM S TO N ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES.  HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD BE A JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WED WILL START OFF WITH A DEVELOPING LEE TROF AS A CLOSED LOW OVER
SOCAL BEGINS ITS PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THIS TROF OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE GREATEST COVERAGE. FOR
NOW THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES LINE UP
WELL WITH THE FORECAST AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE SLIGHTLY BEYOND WED NIGHT ON HOW THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL
WILL EVOLVE. THE GFS OPENS THE LOW AND KICKS IT EASTWARD FAIRLY
QUICKLY WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF BOTH HOLD THE LOW BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA UNTIL FRI MORNING...WHICH SEEMS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE THAN THE GFS. THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROF WILL STILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES ON THUR WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THUR EVENING. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE AS ENERGY FROM THE LOW WILL STILL BE
TO THE WEST OF THE FA. AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...WE WILL BE IN A
PATTERN OF HAVING A TROF TO OUR WEST AND RIDGE TO OUR EAST. USUALLY
THIS WOULD BE A FAIRLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH WILL BULGE JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN WOULD BE
WANTED WHILE THE TROF STAYS JUST A BIT TOO FAR NORTH. WHILE WE MAY
NOT BENEFIT FULLY FROM THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE...AREAS TO OUR WEST
AND NORTH SHOULD RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINS INTO MID NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES...POSSIBLY
JUST A BIT ABOVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  64  90  63  90 /  10  10  10  20  20
TULIA         90  66  92  65  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     89  65  91  66  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     89  64  91  65  91 /  10  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       91  68  91  68  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   91  65  91  66  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    91  65  92  66  91 /  10  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     94  71  97  71  98 /  20  20   0   0  10
SPUR          92  66  94  68  95 /  30  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     96  70  95  71  95 /  30  20   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/51/26






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