Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 271133
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
633 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
FRIDAY/S FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ROUGHLY ON LINE WITH THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY THIS MORNING...WHILE AN UPSLOPE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME DEVELOPS ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST WEST OF
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. STEERING FLOW REMAINS TOO NORTHERLY
TO BRING MUCH IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE LONE STAR STATE...BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REMAIN TO
SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE BEST TOPOGRAPHIC LIFTING INFLUENCE.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO
APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGING AND A WESTWARD SHIFTING THETA-E MAXIMUM.
CONVECTION THAT INITIATES ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL AGAIN TRY
TO MEANDER INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...BUT FLOW ALOFT MAY ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT TOO MUCH OF
A NORTHERLY COMPONENT OWING TO CORE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING
ANCHORED ACROSS UTAH. DESPITE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE...A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BELOW H50 WILL KEEP ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS BENIGN AND LOW-
TOPPED IN TERMS OF INTENSITY. A ROGUE WIND GUST TO 40-50 MPH WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS INDICATING A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS SOUTHERLY AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF OUR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE STRONG
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST
THROUGH 240 HOURS.  THE INFLUENCE OF COURSE IS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
INTERACTION WITH THE JET WHICH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY.  MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
NORTHWESTERLY INTO MONDAY BEFORE A BIT OF A GYRATION OCCURS WITH THE
HIGH THUS VEERING THE FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR TUESDAY
AND THENCE NORTHEASTERLY INTO WEDNESDAY.  AFTER A BIT OF A
REORGANIZATION OF THE HIGH...THURSDAY SEES A BACKING OF THE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN WHICH PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  WITHIN THE MEAN
FLOW...A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PASS TO
OUR NORTHEAST THE FIRST OF WHICH WHICH WILL TRAVERSE ON MONDAY A
SECOND DISTURBANCE PASSES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER TROUGHS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

INSOFAR AS TANGIBLE EFFECTS ON OUR WEATHER...THINGS LOOK A BIT MORE
MUDDIED THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MOST GUIDANCE HINTING AT A DRY SUNDAY
THOUGH THE NAM...WHICH HAS DONE ABOUT THE BEST JOB OUT OF THE BUNCH
TODAY...GIVES ISO T CHANCES IN THE SERN PANHANDLE WITH OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY.  THE GFS ALSO CATCHES
THIS TREND WHICH IS COMPLETELY IGNORED BY THE EURO.  GIVEN THE
TENDENCY TOWARD NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS OF LATE...AM INCLINED TO
MAINTAIN LOW END POPS SUNDAY NIGHT TO ACCOMMODATE THIS TREND.
INDICATIONS THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM ACROSS NERN NM ALONG A BACK
DOOR FRONT WHICH CONCEIVABLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THANKS TO COLD POOL
PROCESSES. GIVEN MODEL ACCURACY ON THE FRONT LAST
EVENING...CONFIDENCE IN NAILING DOWN EXACTLY WHEN OR WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY IS PRETTY LOW.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHEASTERLY.  DETAILS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEAK ARE QUITE
NEBULOUS.  WEAK FLOW REGIMES GENERALLY CALL FOR PERSISTENCE
FORECASTS AS THE BEST BET BUT WILL ROLL WITH THE BLENDER FOR THE
TIME BEING AND TREND CLIMO AS APPROPRIATE.  WEAK FLOW REGIMES ARE
ALWAYS A CHALLENGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  62  89  64 /  20  20  10  20
TULIA         85  65  88  65 /  20  20  10  20
PLAINVIEW     85  65  87  66 /  20  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     86  65  88  66 /  20  20  10  20
LUBBOCK       88  66  88  68 /  20  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   89  64  88  65 /  20  20  10  20
BROWNFIELD    87  65  88  67 /  20  20  10  20
CHILDRESS     88  67  92  69 /  10   0   0  20
SPUR          88  65  88  67 /  10   0   0  20
ASPERMONT     90  65  91  70 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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