Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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382
FXUS64 KLUB 211135
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
635 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.AVIATION...
Continued VFR with southerly winds gusting to around 20 knots by
midday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
At least one more day of hot and dry weather will be in store for
the area as the ridge remains in place one more day before
starting to weaken. By Saturday afternoon, mid-level moisture will
start to increase from west to east and a disturbance will start
to strengthen over the area at the same time. With the best
moisture aloft arriving from the west, precipitation chances still
look to be limited to the western third of the forecast area
Saturday afternoon and evening. High temperatures will start a
downward trend as well with the decreasing heights over the area.

By Sunday, the highest moisture content will be in place but the
GFS and ECMWF have lost the cold front signal that was in previous
runs. The only model still showing a front is the NAM which pushes
the front into the northern counties of the forecast area/far
Southern Texas Panhandle by Sunday morning. Most of the push
behind the front in the NAM looks to be driven by convective
feedback from storms over southeast Colorado so there is still
considerable uncertainty on whether this boundary will be able to
help increase rain chances Sunday and Monday. Even if the front
doesn`t make it into the Texas Panhandle, anemic upper level flow
today and tomorrow will increase enough Sunday and Monday to help
provide at least some weak deep-layer shear. North to
northwesterly direction may help to push storms from the higher
terrain of New Mexico into our area. The flip side is that even
meager deep-layer shear could allow some storm organization and
movement to keep any storms that develop in our area from
collapsing on themselves. The increased moisture, cloud cover, and
rain chances will also result in high temperatures falling below
normal with mid to upper 80s on the Caprock and mid 90s for the
Rolling Plains.

Temperatures will start to climb back to normal or above normal on
Tuesday as the ridge starts to reorganize and build back to the
east. The center of the high is looking like it will set up
somewhere roughly in the NM/OK/CO border region and extend over
our forecast area. Only question that remains is how strong the
ridge will be as the GFS and GFS Ensembles keep a 594/595 dm high
near the area while the ECMWF is weaker around 591-593 over a
much broader area.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

93



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