Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 140602 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1202 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

IFR conditions are in place at all three TAF sites and will remain
through much of the night. Will see a bit of improvement into MVFR
by Tuesday morning after sunrise as some light precipitation
develops and as the main storm system approaches. Once the low
moves east of the TAF sites, skies will improve to VFR with a
north to northwest wind.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017/

Our upper low is spinning away centered just west of El Paso this
afternoon, and is still poised to move across West Texas tonight
and Tuesday crossing the South Plains region generally along a
Wink/Hobbs to Wichita Falls line. Moist convection persists ahead
of the low mainly to the east of a Turkey to Lubbock to Denver
City line. This area should remain generally in place through the
night, moving slowly eastward with time. To the west of this area,
a dry slot has moved in which has helped end precipitation across
much of the western part of area. Some convection now developing
on the western edge of the dry slot as ascent increases in advance
of the upper low. Some questions, particularly, for Tuesday
regarding positioning and strength of deformation axis and TROWAL
as well as surface and low level temperature profile. As the low
moves out over the high plains late tonight a weak TROWAL sets up
from far western Oklahoma into the eastern Panhandle maybe as far
south as the northern row or two of this forecast area. Further
south underneath the low might favor some scattered convective-
type precipitation with a sharp cutoff across the southern tier of
counties or just into Midland`s area. In general, a shift to the
north for highest forecast precipitation chances while lowering
PoPs across the south and west. Surface temperatures will be
limited by relatively high dew point temperatures, cloud cover,
and lack of cold/dry advection. Do not anticipate temperatures
falling more than a degree or two for most locations. That would
limit freezing temperatures to the northwest and north central
zones, and even there temps likely staying above 30. Given lower
confidence in precipitation in that area and temperature concerns,
will not be issuing an advisory at this time.

The only other issue in this forecast is thunderstorm potential at
the weekend. Models continue to advertise a trough, either neutral
or slightly negatively-tilted, that would work on relatively rich
low level moisture for this time of year, mainly off the caprock.
Model solutions are a bit slower than previous, but in general not
much in the way of change with 20-40 pct PoPs Saturday night and




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