Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 262126
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
326 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Short wave ridging currently overhead will move east tonight as
sharp long wave troughing moves farther into the western CONUS.
This will set the stage for a modest wind event on Sunday.

Tonight, however, strong low level moisture will be advected
northward into the region ahead of this trough. This will continue
the low stratus we have seen all day today. The moisture surge is
strong enough so that fog may develop despite fairly unfavorable
low level winds.

A lead short wave trough within the long wave will move out from
the four-corners into the central Plains on Sunday. As a result,
very strong wind maxes aloft will spread overhead. The jet streaks
at 500 and 250mb will be more squared on the Texas Panhandle.
However, the 700mb wind max will be more squarely centered over
the South Plains with values on the order of 50-55kt. Surface lee
cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado will drag a Pacific cold
front/dryline through the area during the daytime. Advisory level
winds are likely as far south as the extreme southwestern Texas
Panhandle but will also be possible extending into the
northwestern South Plains. The Pacific front/dryline moving east
will advect in much drier surface air leading to at least elevated
fire weather conditions.

.LONG TERM...
Dry air will remain in place for Monday as another trough moves
over the forecast area through the day. It still appears that
another breezy and possibly windy day will develop Monday
afternoon and will have to watch closely again for possible fire
weather concerns along with possible wind advisory conditions.
Temperatures will be about 8 to 10 degrees cooler Monday behind
the Pacific front with continued weak cold air advection through
the day.

Another cold front will arrive on Tuesday ahead of the next wave
that quickly swings across the area through the day wednesday.
Little to no low-level moisture recovery will take place with this
system so model blends came in dry again. A bit of warming tries
to take place on Thursday but this will mainly be seen across the
Rolling Plains as high clouds increase from the west in advance of
the next trough that rapidly dives down the coast and starts to
deepen into a closed low. Another weak cold front will sag across
the area Friday bringing temperatures down a few degrees but will
also mark the start of a downward trend for temperatures to fall
below normal for next weekend. Models are in decent agreement with
creating a closed low over northwestern Mexico by the end of next
week but the impacts remain uncertain. Pacific moisture will be
pulled ahead of this system across the region so precipitation
chances should increase. Precipitation type is pretty uncertain
and will depend on what the diurnal temperature range will be.
Something to keep an eye on as we move through this upcoming
week...

Jordan

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 5 PM CST Sunday for TXZ021>023-027-
028.

&&

$$

01/14



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