Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 022323
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
523 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-40 WILL
TRY TO SAG SWD TWD KCDS. BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEY WILL NOT
MAKE IT...SO WILL KEEP VFR ATTM. VFR TO RULE AT KPVW AND KLBB WITH
SOME MID LEVEL CIGS AOA 6 KFT. NW WINDS ALREADY DIMINISHING.
SHOULD BE AOB 12 KTS FROM 01Z OR 02Z ON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/

SHORT TERM...
SURFACE MIXING HAS BEEN UNDERWAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW ACROSS THE
REGION MIXING ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN
FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE AVERAGED IN THE 25
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS REGULARLY REACHING ABOVE 30 MPH. WINDS WILL
STAY FAIRLY GUSTY UNTIL SUNSET WHEN MIXING WILL CEASE. THE COLD
FRONT IS AT THE EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 20Z. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FA JUST AFTER 00Z. MODELS
HAVE HINTED AT LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS AREAS ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
BEHIND THE FRONT. ONE BIG ISSUE WITH SEEING PRECIP...WHICH WOULD BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WOULD BE DRY LOW LEVELS ALLOWING MOSTLY VIRGA.
SOME FLURRIES MAY MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
AND WARRANT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT MAKING WAY FOR HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH WILL CALM WINDS A GOOD BIT WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS
OCCURRING ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. CLOUD COVER MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING TO NASTY LEVELS DESPITE
THE LIGHT WINDS. LOWS BY TOMORROW MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S AREA WIDE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
WHICH WILL SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMING AT THE SURFACE.
CAA AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH AND
WILL KEEP THEM IN THE 40S. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
UA TROUGHINESS WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AND MAKE WAY FOR LOW AMPLITUDE UA RIDGING.
CONCURRENTLY...SFC WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW AND THIS COUPLED
WITH AN UPTICK IN BOTH 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND 850 MB TEMPS...WILL
RESULT IN SEASONABLY WARM WARM TEMPS ON THURSDAY /50S/. THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE IS POISED TO MOVE SE
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY /PER THE
NAM AND GFS/ OR SATURDAY /PER THE ECMWF/. THE NAM AND GFS ARE
WEAKEST WITH THE DEPICTION OF THE UA DISTURBANCE...AS IT IS
EXHIBITED AS MORE OF AN UA TROUGH AND THUS LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP...VERSUS THE ECMWF SHOWING SIGNS OF IT TRYING TO CLOSE OFF
WHILST INSINUATING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. WITH THAT SAID...UL
SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND PWATS INCREASING TO
0.30-0.40 INCHES /ALBEIT NOT SUBSTANTIAL/ CAN NOT BE IGNORED.
THEREFORE...THE SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION STILL HINTING AT
PRECIP...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN A COLD FRONT USHERING IN A
COOLER AIRMASS...IS PLAUSIBLE. WE WILL FINE-TUNE THE DETAILS AS THE
DAY DRAWS NEAR. A BRIEF WARM-UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S MAY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AS SFC WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY VEER TO THE W-SW AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE NW /DUE TO A FROPA/. THEREAFTER...DRY N-NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVENT TEMP FROM MODIFYING MUCH GIVEN SFC RIDGING
MAINTAINING A STRONG HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
HENCE...SPILLING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. AS SUCH...HIGHS COOLING
BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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