Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 080945
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND REALLY RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WE WILL SEE SUNNY
SKIES TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING THAT HAS BUILT
IN BEHIND YESTERDAY/S FROPA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND
AVERAGE TODAY. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT
ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA /STRONGEST NEAR CHILDRESS/
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR AVERAGE
/MOSTLY IN THE 20S/.

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST DETAILS WITH WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC WEST. SURFACE
FLOW BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A
RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM WEDNESDAY PEAK BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AND FLATTENS BY NEXT
WEEKEND. STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF QUICKLY
DISINTEGRATES FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF PROMOTES A MORE COMPACT
AND PROGRESSIVE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE POLAR JET GLANCING US
TO THE EAST AND REINFORCING NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHILE
THE GFS SPLITS UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHILE DEVELOPING AND PUSHING A
CLOSED LOW SOUTH ACROSS THE SE PACIFIC. BOTH SCENARIOS KEEP US DRY
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...THE GFS WOULD
MERELY ALLOW FOR WARMER GULF AIR AND GULF MOISTURE TO ENCROACH OUR
LATITUDE FROM THE SOUTH.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CONCERN IN SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. WE MAY SEE SOME BREEZY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK AND
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL FIRE WX CONCERNS ON THOSE DAYS
BUT WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE INCHING CLOSER WINDS WILL
OTHERWISE BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER...

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT DRY AIR WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST /SUSTAINED AT 15 TO
25 MPH/ AND TEMPERATURES HIGHEST /IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S/...A
PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL OCCUR OFF
THE CAPROCK FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH FIRE DANGER.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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