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000
FXUS65 KABQ 241124 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
524 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist outside of
scattered to numerous showers and storms later today into tonight.
KGUP and KFMN are the terminals most likely to be impacted,
followed by KSAF, with short-lived MVFR conditions possible.
Potential for mountain obscurations will trend up overnight as
increased moisture from over Arizona rotates around the upper high
circulation into W/NW New Mexico.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Monsoonal moisture will remain in place for the next several days
across northern and central New Mexico. Storms will initially favor
western and central areas through Tuesday but shift to the eastern
half Wednesday and Thursday due to a boundary passage. Most areas
will benefit from the Monsoonal moisture on Friday. High temperatures
overall will be near normal through the week although below normal
across the northeast half mid week due to the frontal boundary.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Some slight model difference but the overall theme remains monsoonal
through the next several days. Western and central areas will be
favored near term but shift eastward Wednesday and Thursday due to a
convectively enhanced frontal push. Always tough to discern where the
boundary will end up due to overnight convection so decided to go
with a progressive approach Wed into Wed night which sets up
convection further west and south Wed night into Thursday. Either
way...adopted the more ECMWF/NAM aggressive strategy vs the drier
GFS. The boundary will help replenish moisture for the Monsoon system
to generate larger footprints of significant rain. The east slopes
of the central mountains and perhaps some plains locations would be
favored for some flash flooding. The main near term flash flood
threat would be Catron county and perhaps Cibola and McKinley
counties although decided against issuing a watch.

Temperatures overall will alter some due to where the heaviest
convection occurs, especially with left over overnight convective
debris clouds. Otherwise...the main impact to temps would be the
frontal boundary midweek. Decided to hedge temps below guidance
across NE and some EC areas Thu as a result of that boundary passage.
May have gone too low but will be watching that trend in the
modeling.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Atmospheric moisture continues to trend up and will result in good
coverage of wetting rain with storms later today/tonight as the
upper high relocates over far eastern New Mexico and the TX
Panhandle. The best chances will generally be along/west of the
Continental Divide where an anomalously high PWAT atmosphere
resides. The upper high will strengthen and expand across New Mexico
Tuesday, but higher PWATs will continue across the area and result
in another productive round of storms with daytime heating.

By Wednesday, the upper high will be directly overhead near 596dam
at 500mb. The pressure height increases will correspond with a bit
of an uptrend in daytime temperatures to near normal by Wednesday.
Coverage of wetting rain will decrease some by Wednesday, but
significant rainfall amounts are possible given slow or near
stationary storms. Some model disagreement with the strength and
timing of a backdoor front across NE New Mexico Wednesday, but if
the more bullish NAM is on track then the NE quarter may be in for
some significant rainfall.

00z medium range model solutions depict the upper high over the Four
Corners by late Friday, with good coverage of wetting storms
persisting. However, both the 00z operational GFS and ECMWF
solutions show the upper high orienting from CO down over NM and
strengthening to near 597dam at 500mb by Sunday and corresponds with
a downtrend in PWATs back closer to normal.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

50