


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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514 FXUS65 KABQ 031925 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 125 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 121 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will impact the region through tonight. Storms will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall with flash flooding possible within central and eastern NM, particularly over area burn scars. - Drier air sweeps in on the Fourth of July and Saturday, limiting the development of showers and thunderstorms before rain chances rise again Sunday through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 121 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Scattered thunderstorms have already developed across the high terrain, with continued development likely as we progress further into the later afternoon. PWAT from the 18z KABQ sounding shows 1.18" along with relatively long, skinny CAPE profiles, both of which support an atmosphere capable of efficient rainfall rates. Flash flooding will be the main threat with any storm today, especially for burn scars, poor drainage areas, and locations which received substantial rainfall last night. The current Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the HPCC and Ruidoso area burn scars for the higher confidence in flash flooding. Even with that, flooding is possible across much of the area given the atmospheric setup, though with lower confidence. As storms develop and move off of the high terrain, SBCAPE values above 1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear sitting around 20-30kts supports the potential for a stronger storm or two, with damaging winds and large hail being the main hazards. Any stronger storm is likely to favor the eastern plains of NM, along with the threat of heavy rainfall. Activity is likely to be cut off across western central NM by the early overnight hours, with a slight chance of storms continuing in eastern NM through midnight tonight. Drier air shifts into NM late tonight and into tomorrow, cutting off precipitation chances for just about all of the forecast area except for the far northeast and southwest, where isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible. Breezy and dry northwest winds are likely across much of the state. Temperatures rebound back to the lower to mid 90s for much of the lower elevations, which sits near or just below average for early July. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 121 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Dry, upper level southwest flow, mixed with minor ridging, continues to entrench the state Saturday, continuing another dry, warm day for the region. Near to slightly above average temperatures are likely, especially along and south of I-40. The ridging becomes a full high pressure by late Saturday into Sunday, located near the bootheel of NM. Moisture begins to wrap around its northern periphery Sunday morning, beginning several days of more traditional afternoon terrain-driven convection. Sunday may be a slightly more active day across eastern NM as model guidance is hinting at higher shear and instability values, raising the chances for strong to severe storms in the afternoon/evening hours. Much of the same can be expected Monday through at least Wednesday as the upper high creeps northwestward. The only change this would bring is the mean storm motion, shifting more north to south as the week goes on given the high`s position. Slow and erratic storm motion is likely with weaker upper level flow, so flash flooding remains a concern especially over burn scars. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across NM today, beginning over the higher terrain by 18z in western and central NM and shifting off to the lower terrain later in the afternoon. Scattered MVFR to isolated IFR conditions are likely in any direct hits by showers or thunderstorms. Highest confidence remains along and east of the Rio Grande Valley for thunderstorms impacting terminals (excluding KROW, where confidence is lower). Storms are most likely to move off into eastern NM later this evening, mainly after 00z and continuing as late as 06z. VFR conditions are very likely to prevail after this, with dry air moving in from the west to east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 121 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 No critical fire weather conditions are expected in the next several days. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are likely through the evening tonight. Wetting footprints are likely with any shower/thunderstorm, and locally heavy rainfall remains possible, especially across recent burn scars. Storm motions are likely to move slowly to the east/northeast throughout today. Friday and Saturday turn much drier with upper level dry southwest flow entering the area. High pressure builds over western NM Sunday into next week, returning a more traditional afternoon cycle of thunderstorms. Slow storm motions and increased low level moisture will make for higher chances of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 57 89 58 92 / 20 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 45 86 43 89 / 40 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 52 83 54 88 / 60 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 47 86 49 89 / 40 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 50 82 53 87 / 40 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 50 86 52 91 / 40 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 53 83 54 88 / 50 5 5 10 Magdalena....................... 59 86 62 90 / 40 5 0 0 Datil........................... 53 82 56 87 / 40 5 0 5 Reserve......................... 49 89 50 94 / 40 10 0 20 Glenwood........................ 54 92 55 97 / 40 20 5 20 Chama........................... 44 78 45 84 / 50 10 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 56 83 61 87 / 60 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 55 82 58 87 / 60 5 0 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 51 81 53 86 / 40 10 0 20 Red River....................... 44 73 45 76 / 40 10 5 20 Angel Fire...................... 42 76 39 79 / 40 10 0 30 Taos............................ 50 84 50 88 / 40 5 0 10 Mora............................ 48 81 51 84 / 50 10 0 20 Espanola........................ 57 91 57 94 / 60 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 57 84 61 89 / 60 0 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 56 88 58 92 / 60 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 90 67 95 / 60 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 62 91 64 97 / 50 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 94 63 99 / 50 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 63 92 65 97 / 50 0 0 0 Belen........................... 62 94 61 97 / 50 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 62 93 63 97 / 50 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 60 94 60 97 / 50 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 63 94 63 98 / 50 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 62 94 62 97 / 50 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 61 88 63 93 / 60 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 62 92 64 97 / 50 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 65 96 67 99 / 40 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 56 84 58 89 / 60 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 57 86 60 91 / 60 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 54 85 55 90 / 50 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 86 51 92 / 50 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 55 81 57 86 / 50 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 55 84 57 89 / 60 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 56 84 57 89 / 60 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 62 89 64 94 / 60 0 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 57 81 59 87 / 50 5 0 5 Capulin......................... 54 81 55 83 / 50 20 10 30 Raton........................... 54 86 55 88 / 50 10 5 30 Springer........................ 55 88 55 89 / 50 10 5 20 Las Vegas....................... 53 85 55 87 / 50 5 0 20 Clayton......................... 62 89 63 90 / 50 20 10 10 Roy............................. 58 86 59 88 / 70 10 5 10 Conchas......................... 63 93 64 95 / 60 5 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 62 90 62 93 / 50 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 63 91 63 92 / 60 0 0 5 Clovis.......................... 65 93 65 94 / 60 0 0 5 Portales........................ 65 94 64 96 / 60 5 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 65 94 63 97 / 50 0 0 5 Roswell......................... 69 96 69 100 / 20 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 62 90 64 94 / 30 5 0 0 Elk............................. 60 88 61 92 / 30 10 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215-226-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...77