000
FXUS63 KOAX 290432
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1132 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
POP UP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ASSIGN
POPS DUE TO LIMITED NATURE OF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BY THE GFS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. GFS MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY BE
OVERDONE AS ECMWF DRIER AND ALSO FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE
UPPER WAVE SO LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER RAIN SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF TAF SITES. THEN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT FL040 CAN BE EXCEPTED BETWEEN 15Z
AND 00Z WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN