000
FXUS63 KOAX 091121
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
521 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 12KT WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO
22KT RANGE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THOSE WIND WILL THEN
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER 06Z. ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST.

DERGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013/

DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND FRESH SNOW
COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO BOTH THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. COMBINED WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH...WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE DROPPED ANYWHERE FROM 15 TO 20 BELOW
ZERO...BUT MAINLY NORTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER. INHERITED WIND CHILL
ADVISORY EXTENDS ABOUT TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF WHERE
CRITERIA IS CURRENTLY BEING MET...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE OVER THESE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS WINDS PICK UP AND TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY DROP
A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. THAT SAID...WILL JUST KEEP HEADLINES SIMPLE
AND CONTINUE WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY OUT.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD PUSH HIGHS ON TUESDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S. THIS SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER WILL DROP OUT OF THE BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PUSH
ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION SETS UP.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
INCH AND SHOULD BE ON THE DRY/FLUFFY SIDE AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY.

WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE LAST OF THE VERY COLD DAYS IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...LOW TEMPS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO WITH
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 20 IN
OUR SOUTH.

WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 30S. A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO KANSAS
AND COULD REACH AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY
NIGHT. A CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY.
THE BULK OF THE VERY COLD AIR WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH LEAVING HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 20S. MODELS DIVERGE TOWARD DAYS 6 AND 7 WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS TOWARD THE REGION WHEREAS
THE GFS REMAINS MORE MODERATE.

KERN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069.

&&

$$