922
FXUS63 KOAX 250453
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1153 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

A well-defined short-wave trough over the Dakotas today will
weaken while tracking into the upper MS Valley tonight, ahead of a
stronger mid-level trough traversing central Canada. In the low
levels, an area of low pressure will develop across the northern
Plains into upper MS Valley through Tuesday, while a trailing
cool front settles southeast across those same areas. Strengthening
southerly low-level winds ahead of the front will result in hot
and humid weather returning to the region on Tuesday. The warmest
temperatures (95-100F) are anticipated across our northwest
counties, immediately ahead of the surface boundary. Afternoon
heat indicies will creep back to above 100F across much of the
area owing to the combination of warm temperatures and dewpoints
rising into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and north of the front
Tuesday afternoon/evening from western NE into SD as large-scale
forcing for ascent is enhanced by a low-amplitude perturbation
moving across SD and NE. Model guidance suggests that episodic
thunderstorm activity will occur across the mid MO Valley Tuesday
night into Wednesday afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the
front moving through the area. While vertical shear will not be
particularly strong, pockets of modest instability will yield the
potential for locally strong wind gusts and areas of heavy
rainfall. The clouds and precipitation will limit daytime heating
on Wednesday with highs primarily in the 80s.

Showers and thunderstorms could linger across portions of
southeast NE and southwest IA Wednesday night into early Thursday,
along the leading edge of a cooler Canadian air mass overspreading
the region from the north. Afternoon highs on Thursday will be
mainly in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

A long-wave ridge will re-intensify over the Interior West and
High Plains during the long-term forecast period with troughing
from the MS Valley to Atlantic Coast. This large-scale pattern
will yield generally dry conditions with near-normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

VFR conditions will prevail thru the fcst pd.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...DEE