Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 161106
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
606 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high fire danger today and Sunday. Near-extreme
  conditions are expected in northeast NE this afternoon, and a
  Red Flag Warning may become necessary.

- Turning colder Sunday into Sunday night. Warming early next
  week with growing uncertainty in the temperature forecast by
  mid week.

- Low precipitation chances (20-30%) from Wednesday night into
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Today into Sunday night:

A vigorous shortwave trough translating through the ND-MN Red
River and upper-MS River Valleys early this morning will
contribute to the formation of a broad midlevel trough east of
the Rockies this weekend. In the low levels, an associated weak
cold front is advancing through the Dakotas and MN with that
boundary rapidly moving through our area later this morning.
Steepening low-level lapse rates within the post-frontal
environment will allow for the downward transfer of drier air to
the surface amidst strong northwest winds with gusts of 30-35
mph. As a result, fire danger will be very high today with
conditions on the margins of Red Flag Warning criteria over
northeast NE where less rainfall occurred this past Wednesday
night into Thursday. At present, confidence in Red Flag Warning
criteria being met is too low for a headline issuance. However,
wind and moisture data will be re-evaluated later this morning.
Regardless, we encourage people to avoid activities that could
ignite a fire.

Highs today will be similar to those on Friday; in the mid 50s
to lower 60s.

A second, stronger front will move through the region tonight,
accompanied by a colder low-level air mass. Winds will remain
strong from the north-northwest Sunday with highs mainly in the
40s. And even though it will be colder, the strong winds
combined with dry conditions will result in widespread very
high fire danger during the afternoon and evening hours.

Surface high pressure will build into central NE Sunday night,
allowing winds to diminish. When coupled with mostly clear
skies, the setup should allow for fairly good radiational
cooling with lows falling into the teens to low 20s.

Monday through Friday:

A split-flow, midlevel pattern will be maintained through much
of the upcoming week with the mid-MO Valley remaining between
the two primary belts of westerlies. In the low levels, the cold
air mass which moved into the region Sunday will be scoured on
Monday by a strengthening warm advection regime. By about mid
week, the global models hint at a fairly strong baroclinic zone
developing from the northern High Plains toward mid-MO Valley.
In fact, NBM maximum temperature standard deviations depict peak
values across SD into northern NE on Wednesday and Thursday,
which suggest a considerable amount of model spread in exactly
where the front will set up. So while the current forecast will
indicate highs in the 50s and 60s both of those days,
temperatures, especially across northeast NE, could end up
cooler if the front ends up a little farther south.

The forecast will indicate low PoPs (20-30%) beginning Wednesday
night and continuing into Friday to account for any
precipitation development in the vicinity of the above-mentioned
boundary lingering in the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 559 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Northwesterly winds 10-20 knots are expected at all TAF sites
through the forecast period. This afternoon, wind gusts up to 30
knots will be possible, particularly between 17Z and 23Z across
northeast Nebraska (KOFK). Low level wind shear will be a
concern across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa (KOMA and
KLNK) through 13Z, but should quickly diminish over the course
of the morning. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all
TAF sites for the duration of the forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Darrah


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