000
FXUS63 KOAX 081747
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1147 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN TODAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AT 09Z WILL BUILD SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DECREASE AND WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND LOOK FOR HIGHS
TODAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR TONIGHT. INITIALLY LIGHT
WINDS THIS EVENING AND SCATTERED CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING. WENT WITH LOWS MAINLY 20 TO 25...
BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS
INCREASE. MODEST SOUTHWEST WILL PROVIDE GOOD MIXING AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF 10-12 DEGREES C WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 60 IN
WESTERN IOWA AND 60 TO 65 ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
PROBABLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...
BUT AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER COULD BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD INITIALLY
DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. PCPN TYPE WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS IT
DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AS
TEMPERATURES WARM IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THE PCPN THERE MAY BE
MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY. USED A BLEND OF MAINLY THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS FOR PCPN POTENTIAL SINCE THE GFS APPEARED TOO WEAK
WITH ITS DYNAMICS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
WEDNESDAY MODERATING A BIT TO MOSTLY 50S THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND EVEN
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND SHORT WAVE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT