Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 302315
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. WILL ALSO
HAVE TO DEAL SOMEWHAT WITH CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM 12Z SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JET
STREAK OF AROUND 120 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING NORTHEAST FEAR THE NORTHEAST
ONTARIO/NORTHWEST QUEBEC BORDER. THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH THAT HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 150 METERS. CLOSER TO
HOME...A WEAK TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM WISCONSIN BACK INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. A BROAD AND FAIRLY FLAT RIDGE WAS TO OUR WEST. 700 MB
TROUGH WAS TO OUR EAST BUT SOME MOISTURE AT THIS LEVEL WAS
LINGERING. AT 850 MB...RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED FROM MANITOBA INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. SINGLE DIGIT 850 MB TEMPERATURES WERE NOTED FROM
CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ZERO DEGREE C ISOTHERM
WAS AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED
FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. DRIER DEWPOINTS
CONTINUED TO MOVE IN WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS.

TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LINGERING NEAR THE
MISSOURI BORDER AREA THIS EVENING. SOME OF THOSE CLOUDS COULD MOVE
BACK TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO START TO PUSH TOWARD NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA LATER TONIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY...LOOK FOR VARIABLE CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS. MIXING WILL NOT BE THAT DEEP AND CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD
TEMPERATURES BACK SOME TOO...SOME PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS LOOKED
PRETTY GOOD. CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...
BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE BETTER TO OUR WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. SO FOR NOW...WENT DRY IN THOSE PERIODS. DID KEEP
SOME LOW POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. THERE
ALSO APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY...HAVE POPS 20 TO 30 PERCENT MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION AT THE
START OF THIS PERIOD. THROUGH THURSDAY...THAT TROUGH WILL DIG FROM
OREGON SOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. RIPPLES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS FROM THAT WESTERN TROUGH. CHANCES LOOK HIGHEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES
SOUTH. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE THAT SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KOMA OVERNIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN



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