Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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480
FXUS63 KOAX 281803
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
103 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AFTER A VERY BUSY DAY YESTERDAY...MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AS WE RELOAD FOR MORE RAIN. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE CWA AT 00Z AND IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES EAST/NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. REMAINING SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
DAY.

OUR NEXT UPPER LOW TO TAKE AIM AT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY DIGGING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PCPN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. IF THE NAM VERIFIES...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WOULD BE DRY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS
IT`S WAY INTO THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS CONSIDERS THIS SOLUTION AN
OUTLIER SO WILL KEEP HITTING THE POPS HARD OVER THE WEEKEND FOR
ALL AREAS. WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
HIGH...WILL NEED TO MONITOR HYDRO CLOSELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND MAY
PHASE IN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. PCPN WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY UNTIL THIS FEATURE PASSES EAST
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK IS TRENDING DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NATION`S MID SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME DIURNAL LIFTING...THE RAP SEEMS TO HOLD ON TO THE CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE CIGS ARE LIMITED HEATING.  THE SHORTWAVE
PULLS AWAY TONIGHT...HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN. KOFK
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING MVFR AND COULD LOWER TO
IFR AFTER 06Z. AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES KOMA AND KLNK SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR CIGS FL050-070 WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



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