Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 302000
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

RAINY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE PREVIOUS 18 TO 24
HOURS...AN ADDITIONAL ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH IS
FORECAST...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG/NORTH OF I80.

HEAVIER STEADIER RAIN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING. REPLACING THE STEADY RAIN HAS BEEN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR
ON/OFF SHOWERS WITH COOL TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S. UPPER LOW
SPINNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT
INTO OUR AREA...THEN EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS
THIS MOVES IN...WE DO EXPECT MORE HEAVIER SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AGAIN WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION WHICH WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTH
OF I80.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
NEAR THE AZ/CA/NV BORDER REGION OPENS AND SKIRTS JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT AFFECT THE
NE/KS BORDER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BUT CURRENT MODELS KEEP ANY
PRECIP ACROSS KS.

A VERY WEAK REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY COMING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
WILL BRING STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HINTING OF AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 BY LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE IT SCOOTS OUT OF THE ARE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THERE STILL REMAINS SOME IMPORTANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES THAT BEGIN
TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY WITH WARMING
TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH A WESTERLY WIND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE DRY WITH PRETTY DECENT AND
NEARLY OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. WE
MAY BEGIN TO SEE SMALL PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED ON THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
REMAINS DRY WITH A STRONGER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS...SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE BULK OF THE
STEADIER RAIN IS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AND DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE...5 TO 15KTS AT KOMA AND KLNK
AND 10 TO 20KTS AT KOFK. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AT KLNK THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL
WILL WORK INTO TO ALL THE TAF SITES AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20KTS
AND GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



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