Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 092133
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
333 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE REGION REMAINS IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN A
DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON SO
WILL KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY MENTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
WARMER DOWNSLOPING TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST WITH COLDER AIRMASS STUCK
WITHIN THE TROUGH. A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER 20S IN OUR NORTHEAST AND LOWER 40S IN OUR
SNOW FREE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A WEAK AND QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT PRODUCING
A NARROW BAND OF PCPN WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING ON THIS HAS SLOWED SEVERAL
HOURS SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE START TIME OF THE PCPN IN OUR AREA
UNTIL AFTER 12Z WED. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO
OUR EAST WITH ONLY OUR EASTERN FRINGE OF IOWA COUNTIES SEEING ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...POSSIBLY AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.

THERE IS ANOTHER VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
AGAIN...LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND SKIRT TO OUR EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A BAND OF PCPN IN WAA REGIME AROUND
THIS HIGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA WITH PCPN CHANCES
REMAINING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES PROFILES SHOW A
POTENTIAL MIX OF PCPN TYPES BUT QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN UNDER 0.05" SO
NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT IN TIME. OTHER
THAN THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED WITH A
CONSENSUS OF A WARM UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT INITIALLY MID-LVL
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AT ALL 3 SITES BY LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
-SN AT KOFK/KOMA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MRNG BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO
LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTN AND THEN BACK TO THE SE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
WED.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD


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