Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 241809
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
109 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

DRY SPELL COMES TO END FOR THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AT 07Z IN ADVANCE OF
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND ALONG 850MB WARM
ADVECTION MAX. 850MB FEATURE WEAKENS AND UPPER WAVE BECOMES
PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM THROUGH SUNRISE.

PRECIP AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND UPPER WAVE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INCREASING UVV. PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREAT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INDICATED
BY MODELS. INSTABILITY THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH POPS DECREASING FROM THE WEST AS UPPER WAVE REACHES
THE IOWA NEBRASKA BORDER. LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA BEFORE ENDING AS SYSTEM
TRACKS TO THE EAST.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COLDER THURSDAY WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW STARTS OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
AREA BETWEEN A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS ENERGY DIVES
OUT OF CANADA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL
ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND COOL DOWN INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY WARMING TEMPS MONDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE
COVERAGE IN GENERALLY WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON AT
KLNK AS PART OF THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. CONTINUE TO MENTION
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DECREASE. THE FOG MAY REDUCE
VSBYS LOWER...HOWEVER THIS CAN BE ADJUSTED ONCE PRECIPITATION
EXITS THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY


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