Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 240845

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
345 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Regional obs this morning showing no lack of llvl moisture with sfc
dew points in the low/mid 70s spread across the CWA just ahead of
the leading edge of a cold front currently extending from about swrn
MN to wrn KS. This bndry is progged to continue pushing swd this
morning as associated vort max treks ewd along the U.S./Can border.
The bndry this then progged to stall out along the NE/KS border then
later today and remain in the vicinity of the srn CWA well into
tonight. Expect TSRA development late this aftn/early evening along
and south of I-80 where hefty moisture//PWS 2"//phases well with max
omega and MUCAPE 2000J/KG. By Monday then...sfc high pressure
building in from the north will shove the bndry farther to the

Low level moisture return begins in earnest Monday night advecting up
along the high plains with TSRA development mainly over the wrn SD
within waa regime with upper level support implied via Qvect convg.
Models are in general agreement brunt of TSRA activity will remain
just north of the CWA on Tuesday where low level theta-e advection
will be most prevalent thru the day. However...mid lyr QG forcing in
combination with passing upper shortwave will help induce TSRA
Tuesday night. And with a moisture rich environment in place...the
potential for locally heavy rainfall will increase...particularly
over the nrn CWA. Overnight svr threat cannot be totally discounted
either as it appears that adequate effective shear will be place as

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Both the ECM and GFS indicate the large scale flow transitioning
from near-zonal to a low amplitude upper ridge becoming situated
over the wrn conus with a downstream trof east. Several minor
impulses are progged to ridge down the front end of the upper ridge
and cross thru the region which could aid in initiating TSRA within
the extended pds. Thus low end pops seem to be the best fit given
low confidence of timing/placement of activity.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Look for VFR conditions through the period. Some patchy fog is
possible around sunrise but will not mention in 06z TAFs. Mid
clouds are mainly southeast of KOMA and KLNK. Any chance of
pcpn should be mostly south or east of the TAF sites.


.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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