Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

612
FXUS63 KOAX 152028
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
328 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

...Chilly Start Then Above Normal the Rest of the Week...

Forecast challenges in the short term will mainly be the low
temperatures tonight and coverage of frost.

Most locations in northeast Nebraska have experienced freezing
temperatures and farther south, the frost has been hit or miss. We
have a nice explainer related to where and when we will still be
issuing frost/freeze headlines on our nws office web site and
social media. Basically, we are nearing the end of the growing
season in east central and southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa,
but are not quite there yet.

A weak surface trough is pushing across the Northern Plains and
drier dewpoints from the mid 20s to the lower 30s are working
eastward with mixing helping to dry things out. The h85 thermal
trough is over the Great Lakes and although there is weak warm air
advection aloft. Thus...the synoptic pattern is not perfect for
the coldest temperatures. Despite this...forecast soundings
support the development of a very steep low level inversion with
favorable low level radiational cooling near the surface.
Dewpoints should range from around 30 to 35 degrees. Any light
wind will make the temperature go up, so will count on a good
variance from location to location due to wind and cool air
drainage differences and winds from calm to 5kts.

The MET/MAV guidance is lower in the know cold spots (LCG 29 and
OLU 32) and have trended forecast lows toward guidance. Most lows
should range from 33 to 37...however the cool spots in northeast
Nebraska could dip to the upper 20s to 32 and hilltops/urban
areas could stay in the upper 30s.

With the above in mind, we have a frost advisory for all of our
county warning forecast area that we are still issuing headlines
for...including east central and southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa.

The active weather Monday will be along the East Coast. Although
there will be weather systems tracking across the Northern
Plain...warm and dry air will prevail. As of Oct 10th, harvesting
was running behind last year or near the five year average in all
crops, so looks like a great week for the fields to dry up and
the field harvest operations to catch up.

Our normal highs are in the mid 60s and normal lows in the upper
30s to lower 40s. Through Wednesday...highs should top out in the
70s both Tuesday and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Thursday through Saturday, we continue to experience above normal
temperatures. By Friday night, we do have a cold front pushing
into the Western High Plains with shower/thunderstorm chances
returning Friday night into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle, with clear
skies and unrestricted visibility. Winds this afternoon will reach
around 10 mph out of the northwest, becoming lighter at around 5
mph tonight as direction shifts to southwesterly. Wind speeds
should increase again to around 10 mph by mid to late morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for NEZ044-045-
     051>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for IAZ055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...Mayes



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.