Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 100404
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1004 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

The forecast has been updated to increase PoPs areawide and
highlight the potential for some ice accumulation late tonight
into Tuesday morning. A fast-moving short-wave trough --evident in
water vapor imagery-- over n-cntrl NM as of 04z will eject
northeast into KS overnight, driving a deepening surface low
through eastern NE and western IA. Latest convection-allowing and
parameterized model guidance indicate that increased large-scale
forcing for ascent and mesoscale frontogenetical forcing will
yield an expanding precipitation shield within the deformation
axis of this weather system late tonight into Tuesday morning.

Forecast soundings suggest that the predominant precipitation type
will be freezing rain north of I-80, possibly mixing with sleet
and light snow before ending by mid to late morning on Tuesday.
Liquid amounts of a few hundredths of an inch have been included
in the forecast, but locally higher amounts will be possible. We
are closely monitoring the situation for the need for a Winter
Weather Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

Fast zonal flow aloft will continue through the period with several
short wave troughs tracking across the region before deeper waves
come into the picture late Thursday into the weekend.

This pattern will result in mostly cloudy conditions through the
majority of the short term with a chance of some periodic light
precipitation, the first late tonight into Tuesday morning and
again on Wednesday night. A period of drizzle or freezing drizzle
is possible tonight in parts of southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa with light snow possible Wednesday night across most of the
area. Amounts will be minor in most places but far northeast
Nebraska could see up to an inch.

Warmer temperatures will make a brief appearance in the area
tonight and Tuesday before a cold front moves through Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Subzero wind chills are expected across much
of the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning as arctic air
moves into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

Cold temperatures and subzero wind chills will extend into
Thursday night and Friday before temperatures begin to moderate
a bit by the weekend. A strong weather system coming out of the
southwest U.S. will bring the potential for widespread snow or
ice to the southern plains region from Friday through Sunday.
The timing and track of this system is not certain at this time
but it could impact far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa
with a period of freezing rain Sunday and Sunday night. Light snow
is possible elsewhere in the area during this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 825 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

With latest model guidance hinting at a possible brief -FZRA
event early Tues morning...particularly at KOFK/KOMA...haver
therefore updated TAFs to reflect this. It appears that there is
a potential for ice accumulations around a hundredth of an inch
mainly btwn 10 /09z-12z at both terminals.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mead
SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...DEE



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