000
FXUS63 KOAX 021122
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
522 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL END ALTOGETHER BY 6 AM. FOCUS SHIFTS TO
RECORD COLD TEMPS THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS A
1040MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS THIS
MORNING SHOULD REACH 10 TO 14 BELOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND
FROM 0 TO -5 ELSEWHERE. WHEN COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 15 MPH...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN FROM 20 TO 32 BELOW THIS
MORNING. WITH SNOW ENDING...WILL CONVERT THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA TO A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AND WILL LEAVE OTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN PLACE...
EXPIRING AT NOON. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WHICH WILL BREAK COLD MAXIMUM RECORDS FOR THIS
DATE.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN DROP WELL BELOW
ZERO...WITH COLDEST TEMPS AGAIN IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE DEEPER SNOW PACK EXISTS. WHILE WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISH...THE COLD TEMPS WILL STILL RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 TO 30 BELOW...THAT WOULD LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. WILL LET THE FIRST ROUND OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES
EXPIRE THIS MORNING AND THE NEXT FORECAST SHIFT WILL NEED TO ISSUE
NEW HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT APPEARS TO POSSIBLY MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE NAM APPEARS TOO FAST WITH THIS FRONT. WITH
A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT FORECAST...THIS COULD BRING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE
WARMER...IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT IN THE LOWER30S
SOUTH OF IT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

PINNING DOWN DETAILS OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE. THE FIRST WAVE IS NOW
DEPICTED A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST THAN PREVIOUS MODELS...AND WOULD
SUGGEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST
IOWA. WITH AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND...AM NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING SO HIGHS STILL IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

FINALLY SHOULD START TO MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING ON THURSDAY WITH
DECENT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP...WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 30S EAST TO UPPER 40S WEST. MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP THOUGH ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE GFS IS NOW
MUCH QUICKER MOVING THE FRONT IN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON DAY 7...WILL
NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO EXISTING FORECAST AND WILL LET MODELS TRY
TO RESOLVE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. MID-LEVEL
CEILINGS AROUND 6KFT WILL BREAK...WITH SOME INTERMITTENT SCATTERED
CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. NORTH WINDS
OF 10-15KT WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 5KT...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

NO RECORDS HAVE BEEN SET YET WITH THIS COLD AIR OUTBREAK.

RECORD COLDEST DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TODAY (MARCH
2) ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL SITES. HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND THE
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES:

SITE     RECORD COLD MAX TEMP    YEAR             FORECAST MAX TEMP
OMAHA          13                1943                3
LINCOLN        14                1916                7
NORFOLK        10                1916                2

THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY (MARCH 2) MAY ALSO
PUT THE COLDEST DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MARCH IN JEOPARDY. THOSE RECORDS ARE:

SITE     RECORD COLD MAX TEMP    DATE
OMAHA    5                       3/10/1948, 3/18/1923
LINCOLN  6                       3/10/1948, 3/18/1923
NORFOLK  2                       3/10/1948

RECORD COLDEST DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MONDAY
(MARCH 3) ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL SITES. HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND
THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES:

SITE     RECORD COLD MIN TEMP    YEAR             FORECAST MIN TEMP
OMAHA          -5                2002               -12
LINCOLN        -10               1978               -9
NORFOLK        -10               1960               -16

THE FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY (MARCH 3) ARE NOT QUITE
DOWN TO THE RECORD COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF
MARCH...BUT THEY ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THOSE
RECORDS ARE:

SITE     RECORD COLD MIN TEMP    DATE
OMAHA         -16               3/11/1948
LINCOLN       -19               3/4/1978, 3/11/1948
NORFOLK       -20               3/4/1960

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ050>053-065>068-
     078-088>093.

IA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MAYES
CLIMATE...MAYES