Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 160440
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1140 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017

Clouds are lingering today, but temperatures are warming despite the
clouds, thanks to increased southerly flow and mid-level warming.
Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis indicates a deep upper-level low
from the mid-Atlantic into New England and a broader upper-level
ridge over the western  US, with northwesterly flow still prevailing
across the central US. Mid-level warm air advection was evident,
with a gradient of 11-13 degrees from east to west across NE/KS/SD
and with southwesterly winds behind a mid-level ridge passing
through eastern NE/eastern KS.  Surface high at 19Z was centered in
the lower Mississippi River valley, with a surface low centered over
the Black Hills and a fairly tight pressure gradient across SD/NE/KS.

Main forecast concern through Saturday is an overall milder
temperature trend, with a few fluctuations. Substantial low- to mid-
level warm air advection will continue through Thursday as the
surface low lingers over the High Plains. An upper-level trough
moving along the US-Canadian border will drag a cold front through
the central US on Thursday night/Friday. GFS/NAM do hint at low
cloud and possibly even drizzle potential on Friday morning possibly
skirting our southeasternmost CWA, but have left out a mention of
anything like fog/overcast/drizzle for now as the location is still
in flux run to run.  The airmass behind the front is not
substantially colder, but it will be enough to bring temperatures
back to readings less above normal, and perhaps even a touch cooler
than current forecast if the clouds do materialize and hinder
warming on Friday.

As the trough digs over the Great Lakes into Saturday, it will bring
northwesterly flow back across the central US and should reinforce
the cooler airmass toward the northeast. Thus, temperatures on
Saturday should be cooler yet, with readings even closer to normal
(but still just a touch above).

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017

Warm air advection and upper-level ridging should return in earnest
on Saturday night/Sunday, bringing temperatures soaring back to well
above-normal readings in the 60s and 70s on Sunday. The warmth will
be somewhat short-lived as yet another upper-level trough pushes
across the US-Canadian border and drags a cold front through the
central US.  GFS suggests that precipitation (showers and perhaps
thunder) would break out along the front on Sunday evening, while
the ECMWF/GEM solutions keep the frontal passage dry. Have let the
blend POPs ride in the southeastern CWA for now. Monday temperatures
should return to readings that are only slightly above normal, with
near=normal temperatures Tuesday. GFS/ECMWF/GEM do fairly well at
agreement with the trend toward near-normal temperatures into
Tuesday, but they exhibit significant differences with the position
of the trough leading into Wednesday, resulting in significant
differences in precipitation distribution/convective potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A layer of mid
level clouds will push east across the area through 12Z in advance
of upper ridge axis with high clouds moving into the area on the
backside of the ridge as upper trough moves into the northern
plains by 00Z. Surface trough will move through the area between
00Z and 06Z with winds shifting to the north by the end on the
period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mayes
LONG TERM...Mayes
AVIATION...Fobert



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