000
FXUS63 KOAX 100847
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
347 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BEFORE
THEN...THERE ARE SOME MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONTINUED VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.

BY 05Z...THE WINDSHIFT HAD MADE IT TO ONEILL AND WAS BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND BY 08Z...IT WAS PUSHING THROUGH
THE OMAHA/COUNCIL BLUFFS/LINCOLN AREAS. GUSTS WERE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY 25 TO 35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WSR-88D
DID HAVE A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER FROM PIERRE
SD TOWARD ALEXANDRIA MN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH ECHOES ALOFT
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. BY 08Z...THE LINE OF LIGHT RAIN HAD
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST ABOUT 60 OR 70 MILES. THE WIND SHIFT DOES MAKE
IT TO THE EDGE OF THE CWA BY THE START OF THE TODAY PERIOD. BASED
ON THE RADAR TRENDS...THERE MAY BE ECHOES ALOFT AND
SPRINKLES/ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO THIS MORNING...HOWEVER
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES BECOME WARM ENOUGH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LOW
ENOUGH THAT THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
AT 15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTY SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD HELP KEEP THE FIRE DANGER TO BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 60S. DROPPED LOWS
TONIGHT DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE DRIER...COOLER
AIRMASS...VARIABLE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION DOES INCREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. AGAIN...MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE 70S.  FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY A SHORTWAVE TROF DRAGS
A WIND SHIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEEPER
MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY INCREASES TO
1000-2000 J/KG WITH HEATING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 20 TO
40KTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INITIALLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
A CAP...HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE...THIS IS ERODED. IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE VICINITY. OVERNIGHT...THE BOUNDARY
SETTLES INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI.

LITTLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...SO LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE CLOSE TO THE DAYTIME HIGH. THE
MID LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND WITH
THE MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER/RAIN
DEVELOPMENT. COOLER TEMPERATURES DO WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INDICATE A POSSIBLE RAIN SNOW MIX. FOR
NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON RAIN/SNOW MENTION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
EVENT IS WINDING DOWN. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IS MAINLY DRY
AND COULD SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
SUN-THUR PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CEILINGS AROUND 10-12KFT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT...AND WITH
INCREASING GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MAYES