000
FXUS63 KOAX 250857
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
257 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE TYPE AND EXTENT OF PRECIP AS SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THEN COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS APPROACHING CRITERIA THURSDAY MORNING. JUST
PLAIN COLD FRIDAY MORNING.

SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOATA AT 08Z
WITH PRIMARY BAND OF PRECIP FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP
SLOWER IN BRINGING THE PRECIP SHIELD SOUTH TODAY WITH PRIMARY BAND
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED
TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE
AND ALSO REMOVED THE TWO SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES AS TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THERE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH BETTER QPF EAST OF THE AREA.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
AND BACKED OFF FURTHER ON PRECIP AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AND DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI. A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIP...WHICH COULD INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN...IS POSSIBLE FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA BEFORE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE.

THE ARCTIC AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY SOUTH TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERN COUNTIES APPROACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL COVER THE COLD IN HWO FOR NOW BUT ADVISORY LOOKS
LIKELY IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THURSDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. SLOW
WARMING???? ON FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL TRENDS. WEEKEND SYSTEM STILL KEEPS MAIN
PRECIP AXIS TO THE SOUTH WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTH HALF
OF THE CWA. MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
MAIN WAVE COMES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY AND MIXED PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP. COLD AIR
MOVING IN WILL CHANGE THE PCPN TO SNOW...AND EXPECT THAT IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHEAST...THEN NORTH WITH GUSTS TO 39 KNOTS OR
MORE AFTER THE WIND SHIFTS TO NORTH. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE WITH STRONG WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ015-034.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR IAZ055-056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR IAZ043.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CST
     THIS EVENING FOR IAZ069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER