Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 280441
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1141 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

EVEN THOUGH HRRR MODEL GENERALLY HAD TOO MUCH PCPN DURING THE
AFTN HOURS...THAT MODEL ALONG WITH SOME OTHERS GENERATE ISOLD
TO SCT PCPN ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. INCREASED POPS A BIT
BUT NO OTHER SGFNT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY 7 PM. OTHERWISE...
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CLIPPER COMING OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE TAIL END OF THIS COULD CLIP A COUPLE OF
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF
RAIN SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN IOWA AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THIS WAVE WILL
SWEEP A SURFACE TROUGH THE THE AREA SWITCHING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE NEXT CLIPPER COMING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA MOVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
WILL HAVE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER MOVES IN
FOR THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE AREA COULD
STILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON FRIDAY FOR
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT MOSTLY SHOULD BE DRY. THE NEXT
WAVE COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WILL PROBABLY BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SOUTH OF I80. TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

STRONGER STORMS THAT WERE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA HAD WEAKENED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS ON COVERAGE BUT THINK KOFK AND KOMA COULD GET SOME LIGHT
PCPN. ANY CEILINGS WOULD LIKELY BE ABOVE 4000 FEET. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AND MAY BE A
BIT GUSTY BY SUNDAY AFTN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER


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