Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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373
FXUS63 KOAX 030330
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
930 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THINGS GOING PRETTY MUCH AS PLANNED THIS EVENING. A MATURE MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER SE NEB AT 00Z AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK NEWD THROUGH IOWA TONIGHT. TROWAL FEATURE SEEN ON THE 300
KE SFC EXTNDD FM CNTRL MN INTO NE NEB AT 00Z. DIRECT AGEOSTROPHIC
FRONTAL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAS HAD WEAKENED THROUGH
THE EVENING WHILE A NEW FRONTAL CIRCULATION WAS DEEPENING OVER SE
NEB INTO WESTERN IA. THIS DEVELOPED IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK
STATIC STABILITY /EVIDENT FROM THE 00Z KOAX SOUNDING/ AND WE SAW
SOME 1+ IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. THIS BAND IS
NOW MATURING AND WILL CONT TO DEVELOP EWD INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SN EXITING SW IA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID UPDATE A BIT EARLIER TO
INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THAT BAND FROM WESTERN IA TO NEAR THE
MO RIVER IN NEB WHERE SOME 2-3 IN TOTALS WILL BE COMMON. ELSEWHERE
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDCD A 997 MB LOW WAS NOW LOCATED OVER
SRN IA WITH 3-HR PRES RISES OF 3-5 MB MOVG THROUGH ERN NEB. THUS
WINDS CONT TO BE STRONG OVER NE NEB...AND THIS WILL SPREAD EWD
INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT. WE ARE STILL SEEING FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 40
MPH AND ROAD CAMERAS STILL INDC BZ OR NEAR BZ CRITERIA BEING MET
IN NE NEB DESPITE THE INCREASE IN VISBY ON ASOS/AWOS SITES. THUS
WILL LET THE BZ WRNG CONT...AND WITH THE BAND OF -SN AND WND MOVG
THROUGH THE LNK/OMA METROS CURRENTLY WE WILL CONT WITH THE
HEADLINES THERE AS WELL.

NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

ONGOING WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD IS STILL THE MAIN FOCUS. SUBJECTIVE
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEP...NEARLY VERTICALLY-STACKED
LOW...WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN WEST CENTRAL KS.  210M 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS WERE NOTED AT KDDC...WITH 120KT 500MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE LOW...AND WITH A 150+KT UPPER-LEVEL JET
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW.  850MB LOW ALSO WAS CENTERED IN
CENTRAL KS...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE KS/NEB AND MO/IA
BORDERS...AND WITH STRONG FLOW BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE LOW.
SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN NORTHEAST KS...WITH WARM SECTOR
DRAWING TEMPS IN THE 50S (!) INTO THE KFNB AREA.  INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE LOW THROUGH KBIE/KLNK/KTQE.  SURFACE TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WERE IN THE LOWER 30S BUT MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...WHILE TEMPS BEHIND WERE IN THE UPPER 20S. TEXTBOOK
FRONTOGENETIC SNOW BAND WAS NOTED FROM KSUX TO KOFK TO KBVN TO
KGID...ALIGNED CLOSE TO AROUND A 700MB FRONTOGENETIC SIGNATURE.
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE LOW WERE PRODUCING
RAIN AND SLEET SHOWERS FROM AROUND KLNK TO KOMA TO KHNR AND
SOUTHWARD.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT WINDS
DOWN AND EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  UPPER LOW AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TOWARD THE
EAST...BRINGING MORE OF THE COLDER AIR IN BEHIND IT.  DO EXPECT SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW TO CONTINUE IN NORTHEAST NEB FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE BLIZZARD WARNING...EVEN
THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE INTERMITTENT THAN CONTINUOUS AT THIS
POINT.  AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA...WHILE WARMER/CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVE EAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA.  SHORT-TERM MODELS HINT AT DEVELOPMENT OF A
SECONDARY BAND IN SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL IOWA AS THE NORTHEAST
NEB/NORTHWEST IOWA BAND FINALLY WEAKENS...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE A QUESTION AS TEMPERATURES LINGER ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF
THIS EVENING...AND HAVE KEPT WORDING AS A MIX.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD REALLY START TO DECREASE OR EXIT ALTOGETHER
CLOSE TO 06Z. HAVE KEPT BLOWING SNOW MENTIONED NEAR THE HEART OF
THAT FRONTOGENETIC BAND...BUT ELSEWHERE...SNOW IS TOO HEAVY AND
STICKY TO DO MUCH BLOWING ONCE IT IS ON THE GROUND. MAINTAINED A
RIBBON OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING JUST SOUTH OF THE BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR THAT POTENTIAL FOR JUST A BIT MORE SNOW...AS WE DID NOT
WANT TO LET THE GUARD DOWN JUST YET...BUT DO THINK ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THAT AREA WILL BE MINOR. ALSO DROPPED THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AS WELL AS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AS VERY LITTLE SNOW HAD ALREADY FALLEN AND
NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL IS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE TOMORROW...UNDER COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT A MODERATING TREND WILL
BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THURSDAY...WITH QUIET WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND...WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ON FRIDAY MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
BUT SHOULD NOT SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON/AROUND SUNDAY MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EVEN
A BRUSH WITH FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN OR NORTHEASTERN
CWA. THE SUNDAY TROUGH ALSO WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THAT TAKES
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL READINGS THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY ON AT
KOMA...AND SNOW AT KOFK AND KLNK. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
THIS TAF CYCLE WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS...WINDING DOWN TO
FLURRIES AND BLOWING SNOW AFTER 06Z. NORTH WINDS 15-25KT AND GUSTY
BECOMING NORTHWEST 20-30KTS AND GUSTY. CIGS IMPROVE 15-18Z WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER 18Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ045-051>053-
     066-078-088.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>044-050-065.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ055.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOUSTEAD
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



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