Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 101759
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1059 AM MST Tue Jan 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM MST Tue Jan 10 2017

...Strong winds possible again today/tonight in the lee of the
eastern mountains and along the southern I-25 corridor...

Main portion of the upper trough was exiting Colorado early this
morning, though strong upper level jet/plentiful moisture and
numerous trailing disturbances will keep snow and wind going today
and tonight. Will keep Winter Storm Warning in place for the
Continental Divide until expiration at 18z, as radar/obs/mesoscale
models suggest a few more hours of snow and wind over the higher
elevations. Then appears we`ll have a lull in snowfall late in the
day and the first half of tonight, before precip begins to slowly
increase toward Wed morning along the divide, especially from
Monarch Pass northward. Eastern mountains and upper Arkansas Valley
will see some spillover snow showers and flurries this morning and
again overnight, though snow amounts here will be minor.

Winds have finally begun to decrease early this morning, though
still some gusts in the 35-45 kt range along the I-25 corridor as of
10z. Suspect we`ll see a relative lull in winds this morning through
about midday, before speeds begin to increase in the afternoon and
evening. While conditions later today and tonight look much less
extreme than yesterday, various model cross sections and mesoscale
models suggest at least a marginal threat of high winds in the lee
of the eastern mountains late this afternoon and into the evening,
as shear profile is roughly neutral and forecast mountain top winds
increase to 60-70 kts. At a first guess, have hoisted a new High
Wind Watch for Teller County, the Wets/Sangres and southern I-25
corridor beginning 21z this afternoon and running into early Wed
morning. Left out Pueblo/El Paso counties for now as highest winds
may stay close to the mountains, but both areas will certainly be
windy at times with gusts in the 40-50 kt range from late afternoon
into the evening. Max temps today/mins tonight will continue on the
mild side most areas with strong mixing persisting.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 420 AM MST Tue Jan 10 2017

Active weather pattern through the weekend.

Storm system off the Pacific Coast will have shortwave energy rippling
through the strongly westerly flow ahead of it, impacting mainly
the Continental Divide, with bouts of snow and wind into
the weekend.

Wednesday...

The potential for a mountain wave wind event looks to wane, as
upper level winds increase, causing forward shear. Mild and
breezy to windy conditions are forecast by all models across the
lower elevations.

The Continental Divide will see a ramp up of snow activity during the
day with wind driven snow. Snow amounts will be in the high
end advisory to low end warning categories. After collaborating
with BOU and GJT, decided to hold off on any highlight issuance
for now until done with the current snowfall along the
Continental Divide.

Thursday and Friday, the next pulse of energy moves in during the day
Thursday bringing another spray of moisture and bout of snow and
wind to the Continental Divide. Some cooler air will infiltrate
the eastern plains and with the wind swinging around to upslope,
increasing the chances of precipitation some. Friday will be
colder in the east, with the likelihood of continued snow across
the Continental Divide and eastern mountains, and a shot of
moisture reaching into the far southeast plains.

Saturday and Sunday, closed upper low over southern California
will begin moving east or northeast. GFS has a more southerly
track into west Texas, while European has a track into north
central New Mexico by midday Sunday. Of course, the track makes
all the difference between very little precip for the area to more
coverage and intensity. Current deterministic forecast has
highest pops across southern mountains and southeast plains.

Next week, depending on which model solution is closest, it will
either be a dry and cool Monday, or precip chances will continue
across a portion of the area. After that, a ridge builds in
providing quiet weather, and mild to seasonal temperatures. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1049 AM MST Tue Jan 10 2017

VFR at all terminals next 24 hours. After a lull in winds this
morning, strong westerly flow will redevelop at KCOS and KPUB this
afternoon and evening, with gusts of 35-45 knots possible 17z-
02z. May have some low level wind shear at both terminals after
02z as surface winds diminish by winds aloft remain strong. Over
the mountains, areas of snow showers will persist through
midafternoon, with most locations along the Continental Divide
seeing IFR conditions through 21z. Maybe some brief improvement
in cigs/vis for a time after 21z, especially south of KMYP,
before snow returns again tonight 03-06z with IFR conditions
redeveloping along the divide.

Winds will be on the increase overnight into Tuesday morning as
another Pacific jet stream crosses the flight area.  This will
bring an increasing high wind threat to areas in and near the
eastern mountains tonight, with the greatest threat developing
along and west of the I-25 corridor after 06z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from 2 PM MST this afternoon through late
tonight for COZ072>075-079>082-087-088.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for COZ058>060-
066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW



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