Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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672
FXUS65 KPUB 211021
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
421 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016

...Warm and windy with storms possible across the far SE Plains...

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating
weak to moderate south to southwest flow aloft across the region
with a large upper low spinning across the northern Great Basin and
upper level ridging building into the High Plains. At the surface, a
weak low near La Junta is keeping breezy and moist east to southeast
winds in place across the eastern plains, with satellite fog product
and observations indicating stratus across northeastern Colorado and
portions of El Paso county through northern portions of Crowley and
Kiowa counties, as well as eastern portions of Prowers and Baca
counties.

This stratus remains a problem for early this morning, as should see
stratus advecting south and west across El Paso county and and into
Pueblo county through sunrise, before mixing out by 14Z with drier
air within the south to southwest flow aloft.

For the rest of today and tonight, southwest flow aloft will
continue to increase as Great Basin upper low slowly lifts out into
the northern Rockies overnight. Increasing southwest flow will
develop and strengthen lee trough across the eastern plains, owning
to gusty south to southwest winds of 20 to 40 MPH mixing down across
the area this afternoon. This warm downslope flow will also help
boost highs to well above seasonal averages in the upper 70s to
lower 90s across the lower elevations with mainly 50s to lower 70s
across the higher terrain.

Models continue to indicate low level moisture mixing out with a dry
line developing around the western Kansas border later this
afternoon. With that said, have added pops across the far southeast
plains for late this afternoon through the early evening. Storms
which can develop along the dry line could be on the strong side,
with large hail, strong winds and locally heavy rain the main
threats. Dryline and storms push east into Kansas through the
evening with overnight lows expected to be at and above seasonal
averages area wide.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Western upper low begins to lift into Canada Sunday, which will
keep brisk southwest flow in place across srn Colorado through the
day. At the surface, dryline will back into ern CO early Sunday
morning before mixing eastward into extreme wrn KS by afternoon.
Again appears deeper moisture/instability and any chance for tsra
will stay east of the KS border Sun, and will keep plains forecast
dry through the day. Mid-levels over the mountains will moisten
slightly Sun afternoon with some weak, high-based convection
possible, though dry surface layer would suggest very little
precip will reach the ground with any storms. Max temps Sun will
drift downward a few degf most locations as heights and mid level
temps fall slightly. Weak cold front drops south through the
plains Sun night, which will turn surface winds back easterly
for a time Mon until lee trough begins to reform in the afternoon,
leading to a return of drier wly flow by Mon evening. Given lack
of moisture most locations again Mon, expect only very isolated
afternoon convection over the mountains, with perhaps a weak storm
or two along the Palmer Divide late in the day. Max temps will
cool slightly as 700 mb temps continue a slow downward drift.

Upper trough over the western U.S. begins to deepen again on Tue
as next upper wave drops southward along the Pacific coast.
Mountains might see a small upturn in convection Tue afternoon as
mid level moisture increases, though dry low levels will keep
precip light once again. Eastern mountains and plains will remain
dry as strong sw flow aloft keeps lee surface trough/dryline near
the KS border with moisture and instability remaining to our
east. Upper low turns the corner and begins to come east on Wed,
though main circulation will still be too far west to aid in
convection across the region. Thus expect a replay of Tue most
locations, with dry/breezy conditions and only some isolated
mountain convection. Better chance for more widespread tsra and
perhaps some stronger storms then arrives Thu/Fri as low ejects
eastward through the southern Rockies and surface front sags far
enough south to allow some low level moisture to push back
westward into CO. Max temps Mon-Wed will remain slightly above
average most areas...then cool back to near or slightly below
average beginning Thu as cold front drops south through the
state.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016

IFR to LIFR stratus to develop and expand across COS and PUB
through sunrise, with stratus lifting/mixing out between 14Z-15Z
as drier air mixes across the area. VFR conditions are then
expected to prevail at COS, PUB and ALS through the rest of the
taf period, with gusty south to southwest of 25-35KTs expected at
taf sites from the late morning through the early evening.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW



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