Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 111808
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1108 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 419 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2017

Stratus and fog remain in place early this morning over the eastern
plains, with patchy fog along the Arkansas River as far west as
Pueblo County. Drier air was already making an appearance over the
mountains and across areas west of I-25, where clear skies and light
wly flow prevailed. For today, weak surface low over the southeast
plains will drop southward in the TX panhandle today, as upper wave
ejects into the high plains and n-nw surface flow strengthens across
the ern half of CO. Should see enough mixing and downslope flow to
erode stratus and fog on the plains by midday, with slowest clearing
near the KS border. Despite the nly flow and weak mid-level cold
advection across the region, max temps will end up warmer than
yesterday at many locations as mixing and increased sun boost
readings. Overnight, surface gradient on the plains looks to remain
n-nw, which should prevent any stratus and fog formation. Min temps
will end up seasonably cold at most locations under clear skies,
with occasionally breezy conditions limited to the higher peaks of
the central mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 419 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2017

Sunday and Monday...A broad upper ridge of high pressure centered
over Mexico builds into the southern tier of the US, keeping
conditions dry across the forecast area. Sunday is expected to be a
cooler day in the wake of the cold front from the previous day.
Highs on Sun will only warm into the 50s for most spots. Westerly
flow aloft on Monday will help push the cooler air to the east, and
temps will warm into the 60s for the high valleys, and 60s to lower
70s for the plains.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The ridge flattens out and the flow aloft
becomes zonal as another shortwave passes by to the north on
Tuesday. It will; remain dry across the forecast area, and temps
will once again warm nicely into the 60s for the high valleys, and
mid 60s to lower 70s for the plains. This shortwave will push
another weak cold front south into eastern Colorado Tue evening,
which will produce a cooler day on Wednesday. Look for maximum temps
in the 50s to around 60F for all locations Wed, which for the plains
will be close to a 10 to 15 degree drop from the previous day.

Thursday and Friday...A stronger system crosses the Pacific NW
Thursday, shifting the flow aloft across the Four Corners region to
a more southwest direction. This will draw some moisture up into
western Colorado very late Wed through Thursday, then as the system
crosses the Great Basin and northern Rockies Thu night through
Friday, another cold front is forced south into Colorado.
Therefore...look for snow showers along the Continental Divide late
Wed night and through the day Thu, then tapering off Fri morning
across the central mts as the system passes and continues to the
east. As for temps, look for highs in the 50s for the high valleys
and 60s for the plains on Thu, then for Fri 50s to near 60F for all
areas. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1049 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2017

Low clouds almost entirely out of flight area at this time, just
lingering over portions of eastern Kiowa and northeastern Prowers
Counties.  Dry westerly flow across flight area for balance of
today. Tonight, light easterly flow will return to the plains
east of Pueblo, bringing the return of some low clouds and fog to
portions of the lower Arkansas River plains. However, coverage
looks much more patchy than previous nights so not all areas will
be impacted. Sunday, a weak front will drop south through the
plains and back up to the mountains. No precipitation and few
clouds with the front, mainly just a shift to low level
southeasterly winds across the plains Sunday afternoon. The KCOS,
KPUB and KALS terminals should all remain VFR next 24 hours.
However, KPUB may be just on the edge of some shallow low clouds
or ground fog for a brief period early Sunday.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



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