Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 151720
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1120 AM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

BLENDED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. ALSO
TWEAKED SKY COVER TO FIT LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...MONSOONAL AIR MASS REMAINS BUT LESS OF A TRIGGER THAN YESTERDAY...

THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION REMAINS PLENTY MOIST...BUT THERE IS NOT
SO MUCH OF TRIGGER TO GET THINGS GOING TODAY AS YESTERDAY.
YESTERDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN
COLORADO...TRIGGERING SOME RATHER INTENSE RAINFALL OVER THE PIKES
PEAK REGION...WITH GENERALLY WEAKER ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.  TODAY...THE
OVERALL AIR MASS IS SIMILAR BUT THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE AS MUCH OF A
DISTURBANCE AVAILABLE TO GET THINGS GOING.

WATER VAPOR PICTURES THIS MORNING DO SHOW A SWIRL IN THE IMAGERY
OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND THE RUC DOES IDENTIFY A WEAK DEPRESSION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWIRL.  HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MODELS DON`T DO
MUCH WITH THE DEPRESSION THROUGH THE DAY.  THE NAM12 DOES HINT AT A
VERY WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS
EVENING.  THIS MIGHT BE A PIECE OF THE ENERGY NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
REGION...OR IT MIGHT JUST BE MODEL FEEDBACK TO CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  IN ANY EVENT...IT DOESN`T LOOK NEARLY AS STRONG
AS YESTERDAY`S SHORTWAVE.  SO...EXPECTING TODAY`S CONVECTION TO BE
MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN...DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

WITH THE MONSOON PLUME REMAINING OVER THE REGION...AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS REMAINING HIGH...THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GIVEN THUNDERSTORM
TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE...NOT ONLY FOR THE
BURN SCARS...BUT FOR ANYWHERE AN INTENSE...SLOW MOVING STORM HAPPENS
TO TRACK.  THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN TODAY...ALONG
WITH LIGHTNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL THUNDERSTORM WIND BURSTS
TO 40 OR 50 MPH. LW

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES...AND HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS
COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP THE MONSOON LIKE PATTERN GOING ACROSS
THE STATE WITH MOISTURE BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR. EXPECT DAILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE MOISTURE MAY BE MORE LIMITED...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ON AREA BURN SCARS
ALONG WITH AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAIN. LESS CERTAINTY
EXISTS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DAILY
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
PLAINS EACH NIGHT. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE LESS EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE PLAINS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS HAVE DECENT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH MAY BE THE DAYS THAT SEE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE PLAINS.

LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LEADS
TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z GFS DROPPED A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A QUICK GLANCE OF THE 06Z RUN DOES
NOT HAVE THIS LOW AT ALL...WITH A MORE BROAD PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH. GIVEN THESE INCONSISTENCIES...HAVE CONTINUED THE LOW POPS
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL NEED
TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AND
THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SOME...BUT SEVERAL HIGH
RES MODELS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON
AND SPREAD THEM OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS AROUND 3 PM. ENOUGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR A FEW EMBEDDED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS...AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. KCOS HAS THE
BEST CHANCE OF THE 3 TERMINALS TO BE AFFECTED...THOUGH ITS STILL
UNCLEAR IF IT WILL TAKE A DIRECT HIT. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS IN THE
KCOS TAF...THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO 15G30KT GROUP TO ACCOUNT
FOR HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS FROM NEARBY
THUNDERSTORMS. KALS COULD ALSO SEE A VCTS...THOUGH PROBABILITY
LOOKS A LITTLE LOWER THAN AT KCOS. KPUB HAS THE LEAST PROBABILITY
OF BEING AFFECTED BY -TSRA...SO WILL LEAVE VCTS OUT FOR NOW...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS HIGH RES MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN 23Z-00Z. BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WILL SEE A BRIEF NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS. SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
APPEARS TO HAVE A LATER START AND EVEN A LESSER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT


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