Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 062122
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
322 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACRS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPR LOW THAT IS SITTING OVER CA.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAIN AND HIGH VALLEY
AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OVER THE SERN PLAINS.
PCPN CHANCES ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO END BY LATE NIGHT ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE MAY CONTINUE TO BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER SOME OF THE HYR TRRN. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WL DECREASE SOME LATER
THIS EVENING IN MOST LOCATIONS...THERE WL STILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS
IN MANY AREAS THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE UPR LOW OVR CA WL MOVE INTO SRN UT/NRN AZ BY 12Z SAT.  THEN
DURING THE DAY ON SAT...IT IS FORECAST THAT THERE WL BE TWO UPR LOW
CENTERS BY AFTERNOON...ONE OVR NORTH CENTRAL CO AND THE OTHER OVR
NWRN AZ.  AS A RESULT...IT LOOKS LIKE BY MID TO LATE MORNING THE
CHANCES FOR PCPN WL INCREASE ALONG THE CONTDVD WITH MOST OF THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEING DRY THRU THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE
GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG
THE ERN CO BORDER WHERE DEW POINTS IN THE MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING DRIER DEW POINTS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PUSHING PCPN CHANCES OUT OF THE SERN PLAINS.  IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EASTWARD ACRS THE MTN AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW TO SPREAD TO THE ADJACENT ERN PLAINS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

AS IT IS...LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SAY THE FUELS ARE NOT DRY AND
THEREFORE NOT FAVORABLE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH...THUS THERE WL NOT BE
ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN EFFECT ON SAT.  HOWEVER THE MIN RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 PERCENT ACRS MOST OF THE SERN
PLAINS SAT AFTERNOON AND IT WL BE QUITE WINDY.  THEREFORE...IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES BE DELAYED UNTIL IT IS
NOT SO DRY AND WINDY.

HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...RANGING FROM THE UPR 50S
IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO AROUND 80 OVER THE FAR SERN PLAINS.  THESE
READINGS ARE A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AROUND
AVERAGE FOR KCOS AND KPUB AND A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE HORIZON...BUT A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES WILL KEEP US IN A
SEASONALLY AVERAGE PATTERN OF MAY SHOWERS.

SAT NIGHT...MAIN UPPER LOW AT H5 WILL MOVE INTO NE CO AND THEN SE
WY/WRN NE SUN MORNING. A WEAKER CIRCULATION WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN
CO ON SUNDAY. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE DVD BY SUN MORNING. SUN STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...AS THE COLD
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A BIT
WIDER COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUE THAN THE GFS. H7 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM...IN THE PLUS 2-4 DEGREE RANGE...SO
SNOWFALL WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS...WHERE A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF SNOW WILL POSSIBLY FALL BY THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

MONDAY...A NW FLOW PATTERN SET UP BEHIND THE FIRST DEPARTING
SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE CONTDVD
AND ERN MTS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

NEXT SHORTWAVE LATE TUE-TUE NIGHT WILL PASS WELL TO OUR
NORTH...THROUGH MT AND THE DAKOTAS...AND SO WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
AFFECT US. IT WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE MTS TUE AFTERNOON-EVE. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUE INTO WED MORNING. ON
WED...THE MODELS DIVERGE AS THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPING THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH. 12Z GFS HAS H7 TEMPS
AROUND ZERO DEGREES WED...WHEREAS THE EC SHOWS A POCKET OF MINUS 6
DEGREE AIR DAMMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WOULD MEAN THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SNOW POTENTIALLY ABOVE 8000 FEET...OR SNOW DOWN
TO 6000 FEET. SUSPECT THE MIDDLE ROAD HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
VERIFYING...H7 TEMPS OF AROUND MINUS 2-4 DEG...WHICH WOULD PUT AT
LEAST SOME THREAT OF SPRING SNOW FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DVD.
REGARDLESS...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE AMOUNT OF QPF...BUT COULD
POSSIBLY HAVE SOME LOCAL IMPACTS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING
HOURS AND WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY SAT AFTERNOON.  THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF KCOS AND KALS EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF KALS SAT AFTERNOON...AND
COULD IMPACT KCOS AFTER 21Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28



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