Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 262110
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
310 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Thunderstorms developing once again across mainly the higher terrain
this afternoon, with radar at 21z looking fairly similar to 24 hrs
ago as initial storm development has favored the eastern mountains
and Palmer Divide. CAPE along the I-25 corridor running slightly
lower than this time yesterday, as dewpoints have fallen into the
upper 40s, though values remain in the 1000-1800 j/kg range. HRRR
again suggests sct tsra gradually shifting eastward across the area
late this afternoon into the evening, with the potential for some
small clusters of stronger storms producing severe wind gusts and
heavy rain, similar to the past few evenings. Slightly drier air and
lack of much upper support farther west should mean most mountain
convection will die out around sunset with loss of heating. Will
again end most convection by 06z-09z, with convective debris
cloudiness gradually dissipating by early Wed morning.

On Wed, drier air filters into the area from the west as upper ridge
builds northward into the Great Basin, which will at least briefly
suppress mid level monsoon plume south into NM/AZ. Still enough
residual moisture for some weak afternoon convection over the
mountains, and will keep isolated pops in place for most of the
higher peaks. On the plains, cold front drops south toward the
Palmer Divide late in the day and will add some low pops along the
divide and near the KS border late in the afternoon, as low level
moisture convergence near the boundary may force some storms, though
better chances stay north and east of the area. Max temps look to
drift back upward a degf or two most locations as heights build,
though hottest portions of the plains should stay just a shade below
100f.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Little change to the ongoing forecast trends, with above normal
temps and a daily shot of isolated to scattered convection over the
mts, and isolated activity over the plains. Look for a pattern
change over the weekend.

Wednesday night through Saturday...The upper ridge of high pressure
will remain over the Great Basin through Friday, with movement to
the east expected on Saturday. Expect isolated activity across the
forecast area Wed eve, perhaps lingering over the far eastern plains
late Wed night as a cold front drops down eastern CO. This cold
front should drop max temps by about 5 degrees for the plains both
Thu and Fri, as well as helping isolated to scattered storms to
initiate across the plains both days. Further west, recycled
moisture trapped under the high pres ridge will continue to combine
to daily heating for aftn and eve showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain.

Sunday through Tuesday...A low pressure trough drops down across
British Columbia and the Pacific NW on Sunday, while the upper ridge
over the area moves east. The ridge axis is forecast to be right
along the CO/KS border by midday Sunday, once again opening up the
path for monsoon moisture to stream up across the 4 Corners and into
western CO. The trend is for temps to increase across the plains,
along with increased convection over the higher terrain and adjacent
plains. Look for max temps in the 90s to around 100 F for the
plains, and in the 80s for the high valleys. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Little change in the weather pattern today, with sct tsra over the
mountains this afternoon forecast to move slowly across interior
valleys and lower elevations into this evening.  Will keep a VCTS
mention for all tafs until 00z-01z, though with weak outflow
boundary already through KCOS as of 2030z, storms may stay mainly
south and east of the terminal. Activity shifts toward the KS border
this evening, with most storms done by midnight once again. Heavy
rain and gusty outflow winds the main storm threats, with some brief
MVFR/IFR vis under the strongest storms. VFR all areas overnight into
Wed morning, with only some very isolated mtn convection expected Wed
afternoon.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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