Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 271728

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1128 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Warm and dry conditions will be in place today under a building
ridge of high pressure. The ridge will be shifting east tonight
with increasing southwest flow on Friday. Plenty of high level
moisture working through the ridge will send thin blanket of
cirrus overhead, helping to knock a degree or two off what
otherwise will be record or near record warmth. Several sites
will be within striking distance or will break records this
afternoon. Similar temps are expected on Friday as well although
cloud cover should be a bit denser with mid level moisture working
in. Also expect a few high based showers to break out late in the
day, so will keep Friday temps just below those expected this
afternoon. Winds will also be cranking up with breezy to windy
conditions beginning late this afternoon and persisting into the
weekend. Our normal wind zone from the Grand Flat (or near
Canyonlands Airport) northeast to Craig will be the windiest

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

A tight pressure gradient over the Great Basin persists through
the weekend with a slight break in the winds early in the day on
Saturday. Moisture from the remains of Hurricane Seymour look to
entrain into the approaching trough on Friday which leaves a bit
of an variable on the moisture content of the approaching trough
as it reaches the Four Corners. Winds will be strongest on Sunday
as a cold front approaches. Clouds will also accompany the
increasing winds by Saturday so may play a role in the mixing of
winds at lower elevations. Consensus on the long range models is
much better in the 12z runs today as compared to yesterday. Not
seeing the large 700 mb temp spread post-frontal anymore which
gives heightened confidence on the solution. Frontal passage
timing still on track for sometime late Sunday through early
Monday. The GFS solution is a bit faster and stronger than the EC
and CMC. These runs all show precipitation associated with the
front mainly occurring north of the Four Corners, but confidence
on timing is still questionable with differing forecast solutions.
Diverging model solutions appear again on Wednesday with the next
trough approaching, so not confident on details but the region is
expected to remain in an unsettled period next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Increasing winds will be the story of the day as the pressure
gradient tightens with an approaching trough. Southwest winds of
20-30 mph have already surfaced at higher elevations of
northwestern CO and will strengthen throughout the day today.
Expecting enhanced downvalley flow this evening which will turn
into enhanced upvalley flow on Friday morning. Not expecting any
low or mid level cloud cover today but by 18z Friday clouds will
begin to thicken and lower slightly. ILS breakpoints are not
expected to be reached throuhg 18z Friday.


Issued at 400 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

...Near Record High Temperatures Possible Around The Area...

A strong ridge of high pressure building over the Central Rockies
will bring warm temperatures to eastern Utah and western Colorado
over the next few days. A few record or near record high
temperatures look likely as the ridge positions overhead. Here is
a list of record high temperatures and the forecast high
temperature on Thursday at several locations around our forecast
area. Note: some locations will not reach their record high

Location                Thurs Record  Year      Forecast High
                          High Temp

Arches Natl Park              79      1999           76
Aspen                         68      1950           67
Cortez                        75      1950           73
Craig                         73      1937           71
Grand Junction                74      1966           74
Montrose                      79      1960           73
Ridgway                       75      2008           71
Rifle                         78      1952           73




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