Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 162333

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
433 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 312 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Dry and warm weather continues as high pressure remains overhead.
Some high clouds are streaming over western and central Utah at
this our thanks to a very weak upper level trough. This trough
will move into our area after midnight and bring some high clouds
for the morning drive to work. Upstream obs not reporting any
precip from this little band so do not expect any changes as it
moves into our area. Once the morning clouds dissipate, more
sunshine and warm temperatures expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

A transitory ridge will move through on Thursday ahead of the next
system bringing another day of sun and some high clouds and warm
temperatures continuing. Out west, an elongated trough will be
ejected from a closed low over the Gulf of Alaska and be coming
ashore over the Pacific Northwest. This is the trough everyone
will be keeping an eye on.

By Friday morning, the trough axis will be just off the
California coast while precip will be well ahead of it. Also ahead
of the trough, models indicate a tightening pressure gradient
which should bring some gusty winds to the area. Nothing too
strong, mind you, but it should be noticeable Friday afternoon. As
is almost always the case, winds will be from the southwest and
will usher in warmer temperatures...some valleys may see high
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

The surface cold front looks to enter our CWA early Saturday
morning and push through by Saturday evening. The heaviest precip
will fall from daybreak Saturday through 6PM, give or take a few
hours. H7 temps (~ 10,000 feet) look to be in the -3C range so
snow levels will likely start in the 9K to 9.5K range. The good
news is that they will start plummeting once the front moves
through. In fact, by Saturday morning H7 temps in the northern
valleys/mountains will drop to -10C while temps in the San Juans
will drop to -8C by late Saturday afternoon. Some valley snow is
possible but amounts should be on the low side. The good news is
that models are in very good agreement with the evolution of this
storm. Some minor timing differences can be seen but no major
discrepancies noticed...yet. This can always change though so keep
an eye on the forecast over the coming days.

Some lingering snowshowers will continue over the Divide Sunday
morning but the good news (yes, there`s more!) is that another
system looks to drop down and give us another shot of precip early
Monday morning through early Tuesday. Stay tuned.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 425 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Expect light winds, VFR conditions with CIGS above ILS breakpoints
at all TAF sites through the next 24 hours. Some concern regarding
stratus development over the Gunnison Basin late tonight and
Wednesday morning. However, with highs only reaching 30 today as
compared to 42 degrees yesterday, expect the influx of low level
moisture from melting snow hasn`t occurred today. Believe this was
a factor in the formation of stratus last night/this morning. That
said, not entirely certain stratus won`t form as NAM BUFR data
suggests it could, but believe this is less likely though will
monitor closely through the night for possible updates.






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