Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 212335
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
535 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Some lingering clouds and light snow continued into the early
afternoon behind the latest cold front and trough passage along
the northern and central divide mountains, with not much impact.
Skies were mostly clear aside from that with much cooler
temperatures this afternoon than 24 hours ago, on the order of 20
degrees cooler. Expect these clouds and light snow showers to
dissipate late this afternoon as high pressure builds to the west
and the trough shifts further eastward. This will keep a northwest
flow over the region on Sunday with temperatures a bit milder but
still cool. Dry conditions are expected with mostly sunny skies.
Some mid and high clouds will increase Sunday evening across the
north as a disturbance moves through the northern Rockies, but
other than a few flurries over the Elkheads and Park Range, not
much else is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Northwest flow will remain over the region through Wednesday as
high pressure continues to build to the west, with a gradual
warming trend back towards above normal levels. Dry conditions
expected as well with mostly sunny skies and some cirrus passing
from time to time.

The next potential for colder air and precipitation looks to
occur on Thursday as a trough of low pressure drops in from the
northwest across our area. The latest 12Z forecast models are much
different in their solutions than 24 hours ago and are
inconsistent on the exact track and depth of cold air. The
timing, however, remains consistent with this storm affecting the
area Thursday morning through Friday morning. The ECMWF is the
furthest west and coldest of the three, taking this system
through much of western Colorado and the Front Range with H7
temps of -7C to -10C by Friday morning. The Canadian is the
furthest east of the three, with this system barely clipping our
northern Colorado mountains and not much cold air infiltrating
our CWA with H7 temps of -1C to +4C by Friday morning. Due to
drastic differences in solutions, kept a down the middle approach
and leaned towards the GFS which seems to be an average between
the two extremes, with snow favoring the northern and central
Colorado mountains with rain showers changing to snow Thursday
night in those higher valleys. This is a quick moving system so
there is some uncertainty on snow accumulations or if there will
be any major impacts at this time. Would like to see better
consistency in the models before making any major changes to the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 523 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

VFR conditions expected at all sites through Sunday evening with
only passing high clouds.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...JDC



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