Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 270759

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
159 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 159 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Trends in the 24hr H5 hand analysis indicates the western cell of
subtropical high has slid to the left of the 4 corners
region...centered over southern Nevada. To our north a wave in the
faster westerlies is moving from the northern Rockies into the
high plains and drier air is sweeping in behind on northwest flow.
Models are in agreement the PWAT will plummet from near an inch
this evening at KGJT to near a third of an inch by Thursday
morning. The northwest flow can occasionally be surprising but it
appears a dry forecast is on track for much of the next 24 to 36
hours. The very hot...deeply mixed atmosphere will be able to use
any residual moisture and pops some showers and this seems most
likely over the southern divide mountains attm. Moisture will
begin to be pulled around the upper to our southwest overnight and
PWAT looks to recover to nearly 2/3 of an inch by Thursday
afternoon. Again a strong EML and hence steep lapse rates looks
like it might be able to produce a bit more convection by Thursday
afternoon...but this will still be very isolated in nature. This
mixing will tap into some of the stronger winds aloft and
localized gusts over 25 mph will be possible and could help create
pockets of critical fire weather conditions as humidity will be
low. Temperatures stay above normal with triple digits expanding
across the lower southwest valleys of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

The center of high pressure will meander across the desert
southwest through Sunday and looks to keep convection to a
minimum. A few showers and storms will fire each afternoon but
coverage looks to be isolated at best favoring the San Juans.

On Friday, a trough will move across the eastern half of the
nation and break down a strong area of high pressure off the
Florida coast. This breakdown will allow our high pressure to
start shifting east causing a return to southerly flow which will
draw in moisture to the region. Some spotty precipitation will
start Saturday into Sunday with more widespread convection
expected Monday onwards as monsoonal moisture returns.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 159 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Drier air and minimal cloud cover will bring conditions favorable
for flying VFR. Winds will also generally be light and favor the
typical terrain drainage patterns.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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