Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 260554
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1154 PM MDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 342 PM MDT Wed May 25 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northern mountains,
more numerous over the eastern Uinta range, will continue through
sunset then dissipate by midnight. Showers and thunderstorms will
be more isolated over higher terrain in east-central Utah and
west-central Colorado during this time frame. Drier air south of
the I-70 corridor precludes moist convection for the remainder of
the forecast area late this afternoon and early this evening.
However, as the low center over southern California shifts to
central Arizona moisture will increase over the south while
divergence/difluence aloft provides lift and the potential for
nocturnal showers toward sunrise.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage Thursday as
the low pressure system shifts to near the Pikes Peak region late
in the day. Moisture increase associated with this disturbance
isn`t profound at 0.40 to 0.45 of an inch precipitable water
according to latest model data. Consequently, expect storms will
be relatively high based and incapable of generating much more
than moderate showers. Meanwhile, precipitation will fall in the
form of snow above 9500 feet with accumulations at or above tree
line. Do not anticipate more than wet roads in the high passes so
will not issue advisory for snow. Expect winds to be reduced
relative to the past several days as the gradient relaxes across
the region.

Showers are expected to diminish Thursday evening except along the
Continental Divide due to their proximity to the low exiting over
Colorado`s east-central plains.

Low temperatures tonight and Thursday night will continue to hover
near normal while increased clouds and showers bring some cooling
to the area and lower than normal highs Thursday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM MDT Wed May 25 2016

A shortwave ridge builds over the area Friday, but residual
moisture will fuel scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening. In fact, this trend
plays out during the weekend and into the first half of the coming
week as mean troughing persists over the western U.S. Temperatures
will recover to near normal Saturday and will remain at, or a
little above normal through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 1150 PM MDT Wed May 25 2016

VFR conditions continue through 16z Thursday. Isolated showers
are possible across portions of the San Juan Mountains and
adjacent lower elevations of the Four Corners region after 09z.
After 16Z, scattered TSRA will form over the mountains along and
south of the I-70 corridor. There is a 40% chance of impacting
KTEX KASE possibly with CIGS above ILS breakpoints. There is a 30%
chance of -TSRA at KDRO KMTJ KGJT KEGE but CIGS above ILS
breakpoints. Strong erratic winds are likely near storms and
showers through the afternoon and evening.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...Joe



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