Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 230054
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
654 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 423 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

A storm system is pushing onto the California coast this afternoon
placing the forecast area in warm moist southerly flow and
overcast sky conditions. The current visible satellite image is
showing plenty of convective clouds over Utah with numerous
lightning strikes near Salt Lake City.

The 1800Z GFS20 and 1200Z ECMWF have initialized well with this
storm system and slide it east into the Great Basin overnight
tonight, maintaining moist southerly flow over our forecast area.
As the storm continues to move east we can expect snow to develop
over the higher terrain with rain in the lower elevations. The
atmosphere will be quite buoyant ahead of the storm system with
enough vertical motion to support isolated thunderstorms and
greater snowfall rates on Thursday. Although the snow levels will
start out upwards of 9500 to 10000 feet they will slowly drop to
between 6500 and 7000 feet early Friday morning.

Snow amounts for the mountains will range between 4 to 8 inches
with locally higher amounts, therefore have issued numerous Winter
Weather Advisories which begin tonight. For additional information
please see the Winter Weather Advisory DENWSWGJT or check it out
online at www.weather.gov/gjt

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 424 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Showers will linger around Friday morning as the storm system
exits to the east. Both the 1800Z GFS and 1200Z ECMWF show a ridge
over the area on Saturday, providing us with a dry weather day.
However, we are headed into a progressive/active weather pattern.
A trough of low pressure is forecast to quickly pass over Utah and
Colorado Saturday night Sunday morning bringing the possibility
of additional precipitation with a quick ridge Sunday afternoon.
Model continuity breaks down on Monday, however both models are
forecasting a low pressure system to more or less stall out over
the Great Basin and Intermountain West for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 640 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

VFR conditions will persist across eastern UT and western CO this
evening with a few high-based showers here and there and ceilings
locally down to about 6000 feet MSL. After about 06Z tonight
lower clouds and showers associated with the upper trough should
begin to spread into eastern UT with areas of MVFR
ceilings/visibilities over mountains. Increasing precipitation and
lowering clouds from the west can be expected across the area.
Snow level should initially be above 10K feet MSL, then gradually
lower from the west as mentioned above in the SHORT TERM section.
Areas of MVFR and brief IFR in low clouds, rain/snow, and fog can
be expected to develop post-frontal on Thursday at mountain TAF
sites such as TEX and ASE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday
     for COZ009-010-012-013.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 9 AM MDT Friday
     for COZ018-019.

UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Friday for UTZ023.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday
     for UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Larry
LONG TERM...Larry
AVIATION...JRP


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