Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 260457

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1057 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

High pressure centered over the Four Corners will gradually move
west toward the Great Basin over the next few days. Forecast
models have consistently been increasing moisture over the Four
Corners late tonight and into Tuesday morning with weak energy moving
into the Four Corners. Not seeing good consistency on location of
this shortwave or much structure but expecting a few showers and
thunderstorms will continue overnight and potentially even
increase in coverage across extreme southwestern Colorado and
southeastern Utah. This will continue into Tuesday
afternoon...mainly over higher terrain and near the Four Corners before
tapering off Tuesday evening. CAPE values of 700+ J/kg across
eastern Utah and western Colorado with a bullseye of 1500 J/kg in
the NAM 12z run is indicative of wider spread convection Tuesday
afternoon. Kept a slight chance in from the Tavaputs and south
which should work with the expected coverage of precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Conditions will begin to really dry out on Wednesday as the
westward retreating high pressure cuts off our moisture source.
Temperatures will increase to near 10 degrees above normal with
the lack of cloud cover and high pressure strengthening over the
Great Basin.

Clouds and convection will return over the weekend when the high
pressure in place shifts eastward again. By Monday, deep
monsoonal moisture looks to return with more seasonal temps.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1057 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Thunderstorms have gone to bed for the night but will reform again
tomorrow with the best coverage at peak heating. Conditions will
be favorable for storms to produce outflow winds. This will be a
threat to airfields due the their strong and erratic nature and
these boundaries may collide with terrain or other boundaries to
help aid storms moving into the valleys. Overall VFR conditions
will dominate the forecast in the 06z issuance as the probability
of storms at an airfield is still quite low. Later forecasts may
change quickly due to the nature of the storms.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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