Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 291636

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1036 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM MDT Sun May 29 2016

A pair of troughs organizing over the western NOAM in British
Columbia and just off the central California coast. Shortwave
ridging extends across the southern Rockies and 4 Corners region
where it will persist through the day. The stronger northern
stream wave will begin to swing westward and dig into the northern
Rockies states through the short term period...which will help
drag the southern system off the coast and into the Desert
Southwest. This split pattern is not favorable for strong ascent
to move over our CWA and this will keep afternoon showers and
thunderstorms isolated to scattered the next few days. Some weak
ascent is moving across our southern tier of zones this morning as
the sub-trop jet is lifting across the Baja into the Southern
Plains. Feel forecast is in good shape with no major changes at
this time. Temperatures should warm very close to normal both
today and Monday afternoon. There could be a small uptick in
convection on Monday as the two system briefly phase...but for the
most part models trends have been for a downturn in precipitation
coverage for Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM MDT Sun May 29 2016

The persistent southwest flow will continue to carry modest
moisture into the region through Tuesday. Behind these features, a
ridge of high pressure will develop along the west coast early in
the work week and then move into the Great Basin by midweek. This
high pressure center will continue to strengthen and will remain
to our west through the end of the period. As a result,
temperatures will top out a few degrees above normal late in the
week. Less, but sufficient moisture will remain over the region
for a slight chance of mainly mountain showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1036 MDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at airports across eastern Utah and
western Colorado through the next 24 hours. However, daytime
warming and residual moisture will combine to generate scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain from 18Z through
03Z this evening. The strongest cells will be capable producing
outflow winds to 35 MPH and will briefly obscure mountains.
Otherwise, winds will be relatively light and terrain driven.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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