Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 270503
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1103 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BE SHIFTING
FARTHER INLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE TOPPING THE RIDGE WILL RIDE
THIS NW FLOW INTO CO THROUGH EVENING FOR SOME CLOUDINESS FOR NW CO
AND DOWN ALONG THE DIVIDE. BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW WEAK  DISTURBANCES
AT 300 MB CROSSING THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...
THESE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON ANY OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WARMER DAY.

700 MB TEMPS WARM ABOUT 5 DEGS CELSIUS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW TEMPS IN THE FRUIT GROWING
AREAS OF THE GRAND VALLEY AND NORTH FORK VALLEY SHOULD GENERALLY
STAY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT. COULD STILL SEE POCKETS OF FREEZING
TEMPS THOUGH...AS THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AID
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION WILL
FLATTEN ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. BUT IT APPEARS THAT ITS SOUTHERN TAIL WILL BRUSH
OUR FORECAST AREA SAT EVENING. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THIS WAVE
WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA...AND WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTH.

MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL PASS OVER THE WEST
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THEIR
TRACK...TIMING AND STRENGTH...BOTH RUN-TO-RUN AND BETWEEN MODELS.
BUT ALL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THESE WAVES WILL STAY ON THE WEAK
SIDE. THEREFORE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LOW. WINDS
MAY INCREASE AT TIMES AS EACH WAVE APPROACHES.

THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE AREA
REMAINS DOMINATED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN COOL SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE...AND REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT


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