Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 150956

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
256 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 241 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

High pressure remains in control today though upper level winds
will become more southwesterly as opposed to zonal (or westerly)
like they have been over the last few days. IR satellite shows
plenty of high clouds to our west heading in our direction. Cross
sections do indicate increased high level moisture advecting in
today so we can expect some high clouds to move in. This weather
will be similar to what we`ve seen over the last few days with no
chance for any precipitation as temperatures continue to run on
the warm side for this time of year.

Thursday, a deep trough will finally start digging down the west
coast as a strong jet approaches the area. The first indication of
this jet will be plenty of clouds across almost the entire area.
These clouds will be high based to start and will lower through
the day. We can also expect some breezy conditions as some
stronger winds mix down to the surface as well as the pressure
gradient tightening somewhat. Models are in generally good
agreement to the onset of precipitation which looks to be Thursday
evening for the eastern Uintahs before overspreading to the rest
of the CWA which will be described below.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

...Winter weather returns to the mountains and portions of
northwest Colorado late Thursday night and Friday...

A strengthening Pacific storm and associated strong 140+ kt jet
will be major players in our weather as we close out the work-
week. Models coming into better agreement with this system
arriving after midnight Thursday night and driving southeast
across the forecast area by Friday evening. Quick advisory level
snowfall expected over most of our mountain sites with some snow
dropping down across the lower elevations of northwest Colorado.
System is rather warm to start off with snow levels aoa 8500 feet,
but these will lower by Friday evening down to around 6k. Wind
will also be problematic over the higher passes with blowing snow
expected for several hours. Overall, the storm is fast moving and
will be exiting the range by midnight Friday night.

This storm exits with drier weather expected over the weekend
under a ridge building overhead. Next wave tries to break through
Monday night and Tuesday. Temperatures will be dropping down to
more seasonal norms for this time of season.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 241 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

Some high clouds will move across the area today but will stay
well above ILS breakpoints. Expect these clouds to get somewhat
thicker after 00Z but, again, won`t pose any aviation threats. A
few gusty winds are possible this afternoon but should be between
the 20 to 25kt range.




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