Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 132311
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
511 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SOMEWHAT NON DESCRIPT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV
WILL BE OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW AND WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN PRECIP
WATER FROM THE SOUTH BACK INTO THE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE...WILL
HAVE A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE OFF THE LOWS OF THE
PAST TWO NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

EXPECT BASICALLY THE SAME WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AS SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLIFICATION
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE
RELATIVELY DRIER DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST...INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER PRECIP WATER VALUES
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN TEMPS RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE INTERESTING BUT
ALSO LESS CERTAIN...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ON
THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WILL BE SOMEWHERE OFF
THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST. IT APPEARS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INITIALLY OVER UT WEDNESDAY WILL BE OVER CO ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD
HOLD COVERAGE OF PRECIP AT BAY...WITH BEST SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE VICINITY OF ODILE BEING PULLED NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THERE IS AGREEMENT IN TRANSLATING THIS PLUME EASTWARD
OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY...SO HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE ENSEMBLE BLEND
FOR THIS PERIOD. THEN THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE GFS SHOWS NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH LEAVING ODILE BEHIND IN THE PACIFIC AND CLEARING THE
ROCKIES BY SATURDAY MORNING...USHERING IN DRIER NW FLOW FOR
SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF CUTS OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CA
COAST FRI NIGHT...ABSORBS THE MOISTURE FROM ODILE AND KEEPS OUR
REGION IN A MOIST...UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONSENSUS RIGHT NOW IS TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WHICH FAVORS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND A DRIER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 510 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL FOLLOW NORMAL
DIURNAL CYCLE. ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN
JUAN MTNS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE SHOULD
NOT IMPACT TAF SITES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...BEN/JOE



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