Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KGJT 291018
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE CAUSING TEMPS TO WARM
SLIGHTLY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE OVER THE MTNS
THIS AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS...WHILE MOST OF THE CWA WILL
SEE SOME AFTN CUMULUS. MOISTURE DOESN/T LOOK TO INCREASE TOO MUCH
BUT THIS WILL CHANGE SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ORIGINATING FROM THE PACNW STORM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MOSTLY NRN
PORTIONS OF THE INTERMTN WEST. AS IT APPROACHES OUR CWA FROM THE
WEST...THE DISTURBANCE WILL PHASE IN WITH MOISTURE STREAMING UP
FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA. BEST COVERAGE FOR THIS CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FROM
MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY MAINLY DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

50 KT SUBTROPICAL JET PHASING WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING FROM THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PASS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE...WORKING WITH THE SURGE OF
MONSOON MOISTURE DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...SHOULD
SUSTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS SEEMED A BIT QUICKER
TO INTRODUCE DRYING BEHIND SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT/S SYSTEM. EXPECT
THIS WILL REDUCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS OVER EASTERN UTAH THOUGH
BELIEVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER
WESTERN COLORADO/S HIGH COUNTRY MONDAY AFTERNOON. JET PERSISTS
OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PERSISTENT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED JUST FAR ENOUGH
EASTWARD TO KEEP THE PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT THE
REGION WILL REVERT TO A REGIME OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FAVORING THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. MOISTURE DELIVERED
TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAY FUEL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME WARMING WITH THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS FAVORED FOR REASONS DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY. STORMS
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
AIRPORTS ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE RAINFALL FROM TODAY/S ACTIVITY AS
STORMS WILL LARGELY BE ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS
IN THE VICINITY COULD GENERATE UNPREDICTABLE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH. EXPECT STORMS TO GO TO BED BY...OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.