Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 231001
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
401 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

Few light showers lingering over the San Juans early this morning,
otherwise drier conditions spreading back over the forecast area.
Flat, transitory ridge slides into the picture this afternoon
with pressure gradients relaxing. This will allow the gusty nature
to the wind fields to ease up a bit today with even lighter winds
anticipated for Wednesday as the ridge slides east into the
plains. Temperatures through the short-term will be climbing back
toward the warm side of normal with Wednesday looking like the
warmest day of the week. Next chance of precipitation will be
arriving late in the day, or more likely into the nocturnal hours
Wednesday night, more on the below.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

Pattern shifting once again into a more active regime with deep
low across southern Canada sending another front southward
Wednesday night. This front will be arriving over our northern
zones by late in the night with showers developing as lapse rates
steepen in response to cooler air moving in aloft. The front will
likely stall along or north of the Bookcliffs (north of Interstate
70) during the day on Thursday, before making another push south
Thursday night. Expect cooler weather across the north on Thursday
with showers persisting for much of the day. While down south, we
could see a brief period of heightened fire weather concerns as
gradients support gusty winds in excess of 25 mph with afternoon
humidity values dipping below 15 percent for a few hours. Still a
little early for any sort of fire highlights, but will be
something to monitor.

The front will eventually dive through the southern half of the
forecast area Thursday night and Friday. This sends showers and a
few storms southward with another system wrapping down the back
side of the upper low to our north. This wave sends another
reinforcing shot of cooler weather along with another round of
showers Friday to the north that shifts south Saturday and Sunday.
Outdoor events, such as the Iron Horse Bicycle Classic running
from Durango to Silverton should see cooler conditions with
scattered showers dancing around. Snow levels remain quite high
with bulk of any accumulations snow generally above the 10k mark.
Stay tuned.

Strong western ridge showing some signs of shifting inland as we
approach the first week of June, which is right on time as we
move into our driest month of the year.

Temperatures will be running near to slightly below normal through
the weekend, with a quick jump up by the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

Patchy low clouds and fog will persist in higher mountain valleys
through 15Z morning with brief mountain obscuration anticipated in
low clouds hugging the higher terrain. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions through tonight as high pressure builds in from the
west.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



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