Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 042255
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

THE SPLITTING TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL IS COMING TO FRUITION. FORECASTS WERE UPDATED TO MOVE
CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION /GREATER THAN AN 80% CHANCE/ ACROSS
WESTERN CO THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

WEAK SPLITTING WAVE WILL PASS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT
LACKS MUCH MOISTURE...FORCING...EVEN MUCH COLD ADVECTION BELOW
500MB. WHAT IT DOES HAVE IS SNOW EFFICIENT TEMPERATURES FROM 700MB
DOWN INTO THE COLD VALLEYS. THE WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SPLIT WORKS INTO NE UTAH THIS LATE
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NW CO THIS EARLY EVENING ELONGATING DOWN THE
COLORADO SPINE THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS STILL LOOK SUB-
ADVISORY BUT HAVE RAISED POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BY MIDNIGHT IT
BECOMES MAINLY AN OROGRAPHIC NW FLOW EVENT WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE MAY HELP TO ERODE VALLEY INVERSIONS
A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ANY TEMPERATURE
MODIFICATION WILL BE SHORT LIVED. AS COLD AIR POOLS AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT UNDER WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

SATURDAY...THE RIDGE SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST AS A WAVE DROPS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE NW CO MTNS
INTO SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE EASTERN
VALLEYS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES UNDER CLOUDS AND
GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT.

THE NEW WEEK LOOKS DRY AND STAGNANT AS AN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST THEN SLOWLY PROGRESSES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SLOPE TEMPERATURES WILL ENJOY A
NICE WARMING TREND WHILE THE VALLEYS WILL HOLD ONTO THEIR
INVERSIONS. WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER...THE GUIDANCE VALLEY
WARMING TREND WAS SLOWED THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD SNOW AND LOW CIGS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. MTS IN CO WILL BE FQTLY OBSCURED
WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AND BRIEF IFR AT KASE...KEGE...KRIL AND
KGJT.AND CIGS BELOW ILS CUTOFFS AT KMTJ...KTEX AND KDRO.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT 08Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING AFTER 15Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...CC



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