Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 130112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
612 PM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

Issued at 612 PM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

Moist NW flow continues to produce light orographic snow this
evening. Dendritic zone humidity suggests some downturn late this
evening and maybe another push toward morning so some snow up high
probably possible through then especially on the higher peaks.
However looking at webcams CDOT doing a great job keeping up with
snow and do not anticipate significant accums so let the
advisories end on time.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 251 PM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

A weak disturbance which impacted the northern and central
Colorado mountains today will allow a few isolated snow showers to
continue this evening before tapering off by midnight. High
pressure remains anchored over the Great Basin through the weekend
with weak pulses of energy bringing some high clouds in and out of
Utah and Colorado. Forecast models seem to be too warm with
temperatures in the mountains for the next few days, so have lowered
temps for spots above 10,000 ft. There will be some fluctuations
with temperatures as clouds move in and out of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

A disturbance dropping southward out of a parent low over the
Great Lakes looks to bring some energy and moisture to the
northcentral Colorado mountains on Monday, but more stable
conditions to the west and south will keep the Four Corners dry
early next week.

A closed low is expected to develop off of the coast of Oregon,
split off, and track northward across the eastern Pacific towards
British Columbia on Monday and Tuesday. The southern portion of
this associated trough will move onshore the Pac NW Monday,
allowing the ridge over the Great Basin to shift eastward toward
the Rockies. Forecast models diverge by Tuesday afternoon with
that southern trough moving into eastern Utah and western
Colorado. The GFS/EC/CMC models are in agreement about the trough
moving in, but differ on the extent of moisture reaching the UT/CO
border and how cold the air with this weather system will be. The
euro threw in a 500mb low Wednesday morning which seems suspect
given that is an outlier in the ensemble members. At this time,
forecast models in good agreement for a dry day next Thursday
before a notable weather system moves in at the end of the work
week and into the early weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 431 PM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

Light, generally orographic snow showers over northern and
central Colorado are quickly diminishing and should dissipate by
07Z as high pressure rebuilds over the western US. This will allow
cigs to increase and for widespread VFR conditions to prevail
through the TAF period.




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