Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 252040
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
240 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

High pressure centered over the Four Corners will gradually move
west toward the Great Basin over the next few days. Forecast
models have consistently been increasing moisture over the Four
Corners late tonight and into Tuesday morning with weak energy moving
into the Four Corners. Not seeing good consistency on location of
this shortwave or much structure but expecting a few showers and
thunderstorms will continue overnight and potentially even
increase in coverage across extreme southwestern Colorado and
southeastern Utah. This will continue into Tuesday
afternoon...mainly over higher terrain and near the Four Corners before
tapering off Tuesday evening. CAPE values of 700+ J/kg across
eastern Utah and western Colorado with a bullseye of 1500 J/kg in
the NAM 12z run is indicative of wider spread convection Tuesday
afternoon. Kept a slight chance in from the Tavaputs and south
which should work with the expected coverage of precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Conditions will begin to really dry out on Wednesday as the
westward retreating high pressure cuts off our moisture source.
Temperatures will increase to near 10 degrees above normal with
the lack of cloud cover and high pressure strengthening over the
Great Basin.

Clouds and convection will return over the weekend when the high
pressure in place shifts eastward again. By Monday, deep
monsoonal moisture looks to return with more seasonal temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites this
afternoon but if a heavier thunderstorm does pass through cigs may
decrease quickly but temporarily. Outflow winds to 30 mph or
greater will be possible with thunderstorms. The thunderstorm
threat will persist during the overnight and morning hours at KTEX
and KDRO as moisture increases from the south tonight. After
18z...showers and thunderstorms will be possible across much of
the forecast area with the main focus remaining SW Colorado and SE
Utah.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT



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