Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38

000
FXUS65 KGJT 011027
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
427 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MORE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THIS HOUR...RADAR
MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING SOME RETURNS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CO/NM
BORDER WHILE IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
SAME REGION. THE HRRR AND RAP13 ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIP BEGINNING FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
TODAY WITH PRECIP REACHING THE SAN JUANS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM. SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TODAY...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES BUT ONLY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY
SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION BEFORE MELTING AS THE DAY MOVES ON.
TOYED WITH IDEA OF ISSUING SOME ADVISORIES BUT A FEW THINGS
STICKING OUT. THE CORE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS RELATIVELY
WARM AT -20C WHILE H7 TEMPS OF -4C AT 6AM WILL WARM TO -1 TO -2C
BY NOON. ALSO...PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL DURING DAYTIME HOURS SO ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT MOST SNOW THAT FALLS. IF
NOT...SOME SLUSHY PATCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS
ALSO BROUGHT SNOW TO VARIOUS AREAS OF OUR CWA BUT IMPACTS WERE
MINIMAL. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
DAY SHIFT CAN KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE AND ISSUE A
HIGHLIGHT IF NEEDED/REQUIRED.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL HAVE REACHED JUST SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO BE MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW LOOKS TO
END AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM BUT THE GIST REMAINS THE
SAME. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
LEND ITSELF TO FORM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY BUT
BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES. BOTH GFS/NAM PAINT SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE SAN JUANS TUESDAY EVENING BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE POP AND
DROP SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT WON`T POSE MUCH OF A THREAT. AS THIS
OCCURS...YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
TAKES AIM AT OUR CWA. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE DOWN SOUTH BEFORE THE LOW SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND BRINGS MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR KDRO AND KMTJ AND SOME
SNOW SHOWERS FOR KTEX. MVFR TO IFR IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW AS THEY WILL BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO START DROPPING FOR
KASE...KEGE...KRIL AND KGJT TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.