Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 250006 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTEDD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
606 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 606 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 AND
SOUTH OF THE MESA-DELTA COUNTY LINE. THIS EXTENDS AS FAR BACK AS
SE UTAH TOWARDS BLANDING. CLOUD COVER IS BROKEN TO OVERCAST ACROSS
THIS REGION AND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE SHOWERS. THE 18Z GFS IS PICKING UP
ON THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION BETTER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS
AT THIS TIME SO LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR THE REST OF THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. INCREASED POPS AND CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING AND EXPANDED THE COVERAGE AREA FURTHER NORTHWEST TO
BETTER ENCOMPASS CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REFLECT GFS FORECAST
TRENDS. EXPECTING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CO MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
DIVIDE BY MIDNIGHT. LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY
WITH THESE SHOWERS SO KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS.
WINDS WERE ALSO INCREASED THROUGH THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS UNDER AND MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THESE SHOWERS. MESO
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PASS
AND WILL HELP KEEP WINDS FAIRLY BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS THE GRAND FLATT AND GRAND VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

AN ELOGATED VORT MAX ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS IS STREAMING MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL COLORADO. AN AXIS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING FROM THE MONTICELLO AREA
NORTHEAST INTO THE VAIL PASS REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 IN AREAS AND EAST OF AVON THIS EVENING AND
WILL DWINDLE IN COVERAGE AFTER 7PM. THE CLOUD SHIELD IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE PAC
NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE MOVES ENOUGH TO BRING MORE WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT WHICH WILL SHIFT THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE EAST AND BRING
IN A DRYER AIRMASS FOR SATURDAY. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY PW
VALUES DROP BELOW HALF AN INCH MOST PLACES EXCEPT ALONG THE NM
BORDER. SATURDAY NIGHT THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN SHIFT MORE SOUTHWEST
AND THE MOISTURE STARTS TO SURGE NORTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE FARTHER NORTHWARD THAN ON SATURDAY AS
THE WINDS ALOFT ARE MORE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN CO. THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CO MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE UPPER ROCKIES ON MONDAY A DRYER
AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN ENTERS EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. THE UPPER
LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY MID WEEK THE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND THE RIDGE
IS REORGANIZING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND GREAT BASIN. DRY AIR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OF THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND DAY TIME HEATING
COULD HELP WITH ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ARC ACROSS SW COLORADO LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THROUGH 03Z...SCT SHRA AND MAY AFFECT KDRO KMTJ KEGE
WITH LIKELY -SHRA/SHRA EXPECTED AT KTEX KASE WHERE ILS BREAK
POINTS BRIEFLY REACHED. THEN VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED -SHRA 03Z-09Z. AFT 18Z SATURDAY SCT -TSRA WILL FORM OVER
THE SAN JUAN MTNS WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF -SHRA AT KTEX KDRO.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...JAM/AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JOE



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