Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 221033
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
333 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NW CORNER OF
NM AT 09Z WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING COUNTERCLOCKWISE BACK OVER THE SWRN
SAN JUAN MTNS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WRN NM TODAY WITH A SUBSEQUENT DIMINISHING OF SNOW
AND CLOUDS ACROSS SWRN CO EARLY THIS MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE SWRN SAN JUAN MTNS UNTIL 600 AM.

CLEAR SKIES WERE DOMINANT ACROSS ERN UT AND NW CO EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRIER AND COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY FOR A SUNNY AND STABLE AFTERNOON...
AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST EXPANDS OVER OUR AREA. WIND OVER SE
UT/SW CO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH MOVES IN AND THE
GRADIENT LESSENS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT IN ON NORTHERLY FLOW
TONIGHT. A SPLITTING PACIFIC TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST WILL FIGHT ITS WAY THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT...WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE NORTHERN SECTION DROPPING SE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA ON FRI. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FRIDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW SETS
UP OFF THE BAJA COAST CAUSING A REX BLOCK TO FORM. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SERIES OF WAVES WILL COME ASHORE OVER THE PACNW. THESE
WAVES WILL HIT THE APEX OF THE RIDGE AND THEN DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOWING NO PRECIP UNDER
THIS FLOW FOR THE NRN MTNS UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW HOWEVER SO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS FOR THE NRN
MTNS...MAYBE REACHING THE FLATTOPS...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
ACCUMULATION.

THE RELATIVELY STATIONARY LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL START MOVING
NWRD MONDAY AS A WEAK JET STREAK KICKS IT INTO GEAR ACCORDING TO
THE GFS. THE EC HAS THE SAME IDEA BUT OPENS THE LOW UP AND PUSHES
IT OFF THE WEST COAST AS IT MOVES NORTH. THE GFS ALSO OPENS THE
LOW AND BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION TUESDAY WHILE THE EC KEEPS US
DRY UNTIL THURSDAY. THE BLENDED SOLN BRINGS SOME PRECIP TO THE
REGION BUT NOT TOO MUCH ATTM. WITH SUCH DIFFERING SOLNS...WOULDN`T
HANG MY HAT ON EITHER FORECAST.

THAT BEING SAID...MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUN AND WARM TEMPS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING AFTER THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MST THU JAN 22 2015

THE DEPARTING SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT MVFR AND OCCNL IFR TO THE SAN
JUANS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTH BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR FOR
ALL TAF SITES AFTER 12Z THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE
REMAINS FOR SRN VALLEYS...INCLUDING KDRO...TO SEE SOME LOW
STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF
ATTM.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR


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