Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 260451
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1051 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WINDS HAVE LESSENED ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO BELOW THE 25 MPH
THRESHOLD WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NO LONGER EXPECTED SO HAVE
ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES DEVELOPED LATER TODAY AROUND 4 PM OVER THE
EASTERN SAN JUANS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

ATYPICAL JULY AFTERNOON IN A COUPLE OF WAYS...NO CONVECTIVE STORMS
AS OF 19Z. HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT A STORM OR TWO WILL POP OVER
THE SAN JUANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PROMPTLY MOVE EAST.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DOMINATED THIS JULY...SO THE LACK OF
STORMS SEEMS OUT OF PLACE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE PREVAILS TODAY BUT
HARDLY A SCORCHER. OUTSIDE OF MONUMENT VALLEY...NO TEMP SENSOR
HAVE REACHED 90F BY 1 PM. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS HAS PROVIDED OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A COMFORTABLE AND QUIET SUMMER DAY.

MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING
IN CLOUD COVER INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY NOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS 500 MB VORTICITY STREAMS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS AN AREA FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
BUT THE MOISTURE SHIELD REACHING FURTHER NORTH. THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY
EVENING AS DRIER AIR PROTRUDES INTO WESTERN COLORADO FROM THE
GREAT BASIN. NORTHWEST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY
AND BREEZY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND A 60 KT JET
OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A BURLY PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND BRUSH ALONG THE
WY/UT/CO BORDER MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL BE ENHANCED WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN UT/CO BOUNDARIES THANKS TO THE INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND A 60 KT JET ALOFT. ASSUMING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CAN DRY
OUT ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
FOR DAYS...WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS DO LOOK PROBABLE IN NE UTAH
AND NW COLORADO. MOISTURE ON MONDAY WILL HUG THE SAN JUANS AND
SOUTHERN COLORADO DIVIDE MOUNTAINS SO SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE NAM IS BRINGING A SOLID ELONGATED VORT MAX TO THE WY/UT/CO
BORDER ON TUESDAY LINED UP WITH THE ULJ WHILE THE GFS AND EC ARE
KEEPING THIS ENERGY A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THIS ENERGY STAYS IN
WYOMING BUT MAY KEEP CONDITIONS BREEZY ALONG THE WY/UT/CO BORDER.
500 MB HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY AND
THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB ISOBARS SHOW CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THAT LEVEL OVER WESTERN KS...WESTERN OK...AND THE PANHANDLE OF TX
WHICH WOULD STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS FROM THE GULF.
SIGNAL LOOKS SLIGHTLY MONSOONAL AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS
HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AREA FORECAST TERMINALS THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND IN INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IMPACTING
FLIGHT OPERATIONS. LOWERED FLIGHT CRITERIA PROBABILITY IS QUITE
LOW ATTM BUT PASSING STORMS MY IMPACT ILS BREAK POINTS AT
KEGE...KASE AND KRIL TEMPORARILY AFTER 26/20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 820 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY FOR FIRE ZONE 200 REMAINS IN
EFFECT DUE TO 60 KT UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT IN PLACE AND DRY AIR
REMAINING OVER NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO WHILE MAINLY STRATIFORM
RAIN IS EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY GUSTY WINDS MAY BE
ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW ORIGINATING FROM WELL SOUTH OF MOFFAT COUNTY.
ALSO THE WATCH FOR MONDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 200 201 202 AND 203
REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCIES ON
FORECAST WINDS AND LOW RH FOR MONDAY AS A TROUGH BRUSHES BY THE
WY/UT/CO BORDER. ON MONDAY CERTAIN PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA MAY
POTENTIALLY BE BATTLING WITH TOO MUCH MOISTURE FROM SUNDAYS
SHOWERS BUT FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND THIS SHOULD DRY CONDITIONS OUT PRETTY QUICKLY.
SINCE ITS JUST A WATCH DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION WITH
SUCH A DEFINED FEATURE AFFECTING THE AREA.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ200>203.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ200.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...MDA/JAM


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