Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 020027
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
627 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODEST MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JETLET PASSAGE SUPPORTING
CURRENT CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER THE
STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WILL SEE THE TYPICAL DOWNTURN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A
LITTLE LESS MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. WILL GO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS TOMORROW MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CO MTNS
WHERE THE NOSE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL JETLET WILL BE PROVIDING
ADDED LIFT LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET SETS UP OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND HELPS PULL PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTH OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL INCLUDE MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM
THE CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E. GFS AND SREF MOST
AGGRESSIVE...BUT ALSO MOST REASONABLE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH...HIGHEST OVER
SOUTHEAST UT AND FOUR CORNERS...THURSDAY AND CONTINUE AT THIS
LEVEL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...BUT AT THIS TIME...PRECIP WATER VALUES NOT
EXCESSIVE.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY AND THEN PASSES NORTH
OF THE REGION SUNDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME GETS SHUNTED TO THE
EAST AND WILL RETURN THE AREA TO THE NORMAL DIURNAL...MAINLY
TERRAIN-FOCUSED...CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GFS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
ANOTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WITH ISOLATED STRONG CELLS (CONTAINING SMALL
HAIL) WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 02Z THIS EVENING. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO
25-30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGJT AND KRIL FROM THE CURRENT LINE
OF -SHRA/-TSRA MOVING INTO WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH BETWEEN 02Z- 06Z.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z BUT A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA
WILL FORM OVER WRN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...PF


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