Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 262359
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
459 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN MANY LOCATIONS
BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. HAVE ALLOW CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS FOR
LOWER VALLEYS TO EXPIRE AT 3PM AND HAVE CANCELLED HIGHLIGHTS FOR
ALL OF UTAH AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF COLORADO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHWEST COLORADO 22/23 WHERE HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE. HAVE
ALSO ALLOWED HIGHLIGHTS TO CONTINUE FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
COLORADO.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. THE BEST ACCUMULATION WILL
BE OVER COLORADO MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WHERE A FEW INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C.
NORTHERLY DRY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN SATURDAY WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

A COMPLICATED STORM SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
SUNDAY INTO THE WORKWEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE CLOSING
OFF OVER NEVADA BY TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
SPREAD PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF COLORADO ON SUNDAY MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME INCONSISTENCIES REGARDING
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...BASED
ON CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY
OVER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WHICH MAY REQUIRE WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. BY MIDWEEK THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECASTED TO EJECT
SLOWLY EAST...SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH SOME POTENTIAL
IMPACT FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS MODEL SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 457 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH WITH MOUNTAINS REMAINING OBSCURED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE
VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL SITES
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ003-
     017-018.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ004-009-
     010-012-013-019-022-023.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...JDC


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