Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 121730
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1130 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
PUSH DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY OVER NE UT AND NW CO. THE MODELS SHOW A DECREASE
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL...AS THE DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW
ALOFT PUSH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME SOUTHEAST...BUT MESOSCALE
PROCESSES THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT SHOULD RUN COUNTER TO THAT
TREND. SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN CO
AND NW NEW MEXICO SPREAD OVER ALL OF SW CO AND ACROSS MOST OF SE
UT. BELIEVE THE RESULT WILL BE MORE OF A PIVOT OF THE MONSOON
PLUME WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS CUTTING THE FORECAST AREA DIAGONALLY
FROM SE UT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CO. SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SW CO AND SOUTHEAST UT WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHER
MOISTURE AND STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH NE UT...NW CO...AND WEST-
CENTRAL CO WILL BE DRIER. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE SOUTH AS A
RESULT AND KEPT MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES AND RE-CENTERS OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS AN UNUSUALLY COOL CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT DRIER NW FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...
CONFINING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM INDICATES STILL SOME MOISTURE IN THE 700-500
LAYER FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN
UT AND NWRN CO...BUT MOST OF THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
HOT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
WITH THE UPPER HIGH FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH
DRIER NW FLOW ACROSS ERN UT AND WRN CO. DAYTIME HEATING MAY STILL
TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS...MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS STILL QUITE WARM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH LIGHT DRY NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAKE AND
UPTURN TUE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE AREA. THE WAVE WILL BE EMBEDDING IN THE CONTINUE NW FLOW
ALOFT BUT THERE IS A DECENT JET SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND
SOME DYNAMIC LIFT AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING BACK INTO NW CO AND
NE UT WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY WETTER WITH BETTER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE
TRAILING EDGE OF THE TROUGH LINGERS THERE. TUE AND WED MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO THE DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM EARLY IN THE WEEK SHOULD PUSH THE MONSOON
PLUME FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

STORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE JUST STARTED FIRING ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN THIS MORNING WITH COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. MTN
TAF SITES HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR VCTS AND TS THOUGH SOME
DRIFTING STORMS LATER IN THE DAY MAY BRING SOME CONVECTION TO
VALLEY LOCATIONS. SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL DROP VIS BRIEFLY UNDER
STRONGER STORMS THOUGH FLT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER 03Z...MOST CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN
THOUGH SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/JAD
LONG TERM...CC/JAD
AVIATION...TGR



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