Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 251108
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
408 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE INDICATES DEEP PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE DIVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND AS OF 3AM VERY LIGHT RETURNS
ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE RADAR. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC
OVERRUNNING EVENT...PACKED WITH MOISTURE BUT FAST MOVING AND QUITE
DEPENDENT ON OROGRAPHICS FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW. THE VALLEYS OF
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO WILL SEE SUB-ADVISORY SNOW THIS MORNING BUT
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WILL SHIFT EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOCUS ON THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO.
ADDED STEAMBOAT AREA TO ADVISORY FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY MOIST AND IN FAVORABLE WEST FLOW FOR THE TOWN
AND SURROUNDINGS.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BUT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

RISING HEIGHTS WILL SHIFT DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
LINGERING. WARMING ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN VALLEY INVERSIONS...
ALTHOUGH LACK OF SNOW COVER IN LOWER VALLEYS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
CLIMB EACH AFTERNOON BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS. FLAT RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STORM TRACK SHIFTED
NORTH. THIS KEEPS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS STARTING TO DIVERGE A BIT
WITH WITH THE EVOLUTIONS OF A DIGGING SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. ECMWG COMING IN DEEPER AND SLOWER CLOSING A LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE GFS DRAGGING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE LOW
POPS LATE IN THE EXTENDED...WITH BEST POTENTIAL LOOKING TO BE JUST
OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SNOW WILL OVERTAKE EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND NORTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL-KRIL-KGUC WITH CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING BELOW
IFR CONDS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCD. THIS ACTIVITY PEAKS BETWEEN 18Z
AND 03Z TODAY...WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXCEEDING 45
KTS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE COMMON NEAR
KSBS AND KHDN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005-010-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



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