Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 270218
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
818 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MOISTURE WORKING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. THIS ACTIVITY SENDING SOME ENHANCED
DRAINAGE/OUTFLOW WINDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...BUT RETURN IN
FORCE BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS A DRY FRONT WORKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO...DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL BELOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHIFTING
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE DRY FRONT WORKS IN...SENDING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH IT. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE FOCUS
OVER AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...WHERE THE NAM12 AND RAP HOLDING ON TO DEEPER MOISTURE A
BIT LONGER. SFC MOISTURE ALSO DEPARTS WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN MANY AREAS. TEMPS WILL
BE UP SLIGHTLY IN MANY AREAS...WITH MOS NUMBERS IN THE BALLPARK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ENERGETIC NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL BE LIFTING ENE INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA TUESDAY...DRIVING THE ABOVE MENTIONED DRY FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP FOR A COUPLE
DAYS. THE RIDGE STARTS REBUILDING TO THE WEST BY LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
MOISTURE TO WORK BACK NORTH...BUT CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE TO
OUR WEST AND IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE MOISTURE TO FILL BACK
INTO OUR REGION. THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND RECENTERS OVER WESTERN
COLORADO BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
WORK BACK INTO EASTERN UTAH AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SENDING THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FETCH BACK IN. TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ON THE NEAR NORMAL TO START OFF THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD
AVERAGE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA/ISOLATED -TSRA WILL FAVOR AREAS EAST OF A LINE
FROM KCAG- KRIL-KGJT-KCEZ THROUGH 03Z...THEN BECOME ISOLATED AND
CIRCUMNAVIGABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. BRIEF SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
LOCAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF G30-40KTS WITH AREAS OF MODERATE
TURBULENCE WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
KTEX MAY SEE CIGS DROP BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FROM PASSING
-SHRA/-TSRA. ELSEWHERE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY DEVELOP 09Z-15Z
WITH WINDS AT 10000-14000 FT MSL AT INCREASING TO SW 40KTS AFT
12Z. THESE GUSTY SW WINDS WILL MIX INTO TAF SITES BETWEEN 15-18Z
MONDAY. ISOLATED STORMS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY HAS EXPIRED AT 8PM....

TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
REGION WILL BRING INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 30 HOURS. WITH FUELS AT CRITICAL LEVELS BASED ON LATEST
INPUT FROM PARTNERS...EXPECTED HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT AND WINDS
GUSTING OVER 25 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO...INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200...201...202 AND 203.
THE GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ200>203.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JOE
FIRE WEATHER...MPM



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