Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 292056
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
256 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

IN SPITE OF ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HEATING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WAS LIMITED.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UTAH RIDGE WAS STRONGEST OVER NW
CO...AND WEAKEST IN THE SOUTHEAST SAN JUAN MTNS. CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH IS LIMITED BUT THE DCAPE VALUE IS AT 1335
J/KG...AN INDICATOR OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND THUS STRONG AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. SOME SAN JUAN MTN STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
VERY STRONG WINDS GUSTS THIS LATE AFTERNOON. NW COLORADO WILL SEE
LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE MOST STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT BASIN...CENTERED OVER UTAH. THEREFORE HOT CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST...WITH CONVECTION AGAIN DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH AN INCH.
STORMS WILL MOSTLY END BY MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
NOCTURNAL STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN REACH INTO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS IN THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS. ALSO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON
THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE HIGHER DEW POINTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

ON WED...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED TO THE WEST
SOMEWHAT AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
COMBINATION WILL ALLOW A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER AN INCH EXPECT AN
UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN LATE IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS DRIER AIR BEGINS SPREAD IN. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN A DOWNTURN TO THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

THE RIDGE AGAIN SHIFTS EAST AND MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS DURING
THE WEEKEND. BY MON THE HIGH CENTER IS PROGGED TO BE JUST TO OUR
EAST. IF THIS COMES TO PASS...IT MAY OPEN THE DOOR A BETTER
MOISTURE TAP FROM THE SOUTH.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST...WITH PLENTY HIGHS
REACHING 100 DEGREES OR BETTER IN THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS.
NIGHTTIME LOWS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER MIDWEEK AND BEYOND AS THE
AIR MASS DRIES OUT.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 02Z MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. KMTJ KTEX KDRO HAVE A 30 PERCENT
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSHOWERS... A 10 PERCENT CHANCE IN KASE KEGE.
THE MAIN THREAT IS OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP 45 KTS. SIMILAR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFT 18Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JOE



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