Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 110525
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1125 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

SHOWERS HANGING ON ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SPOTTERS REPORTING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF PROBLEMS...SO WILL JUST RAMP
UP POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS CLUSTER MOVES THROUGH. ALSO
SEEING A FEW CELLS FIRE ALONG OLDER OUTFLOWS...NEAR MONTROSE AND
NORTH OF RIFLE...WITH ONE FINAL AREA ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE FIRING NEW STORMS IN EAST CENTRAL UTAH NEAR MOAB. ALL GRIDS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

LATEST RADAR MOSAIC IS LIT UP THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE FORMED AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
PWATS FROM THIS MORNINGS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH .96 INCHES WHICH IS 153 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. STEERING FLOW ALSO REMAINS SLUGGISH AT AROUND 10KT AT 10K
FEET SO THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE ABLE TO PUT DOWN PLENTY OF
PRECIP OVER THE SAME AREA. HAVING SAID THAT...PRECIP REPORTS FROM
YESTERDAY WERE QUITE ANEMIC. COCORAHS REPORTS WERE MOSTLY BETWEEN
.05-.08 INCHES WHILE A SPOTTER REPORT FROM SILVERTON REPORTED
ONLY .08 INCHES. IN CONTRAST...THE RADAR REPORTED SOME PLACES
GETTING OVER AN INCH OF PRECIP BUT WITH NO GAUGES OR SPOTTERS
REPORTING...HARD TO TELL GROUND TRUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL
KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE AND MAY PULL DOWN EARLY TOMORROW
AFTER EXAMINING PRECIP AMOUNTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THEN...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HUG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE VALLEYS. THE
STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. MOST CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BUT AN ODD
SHOWER...OR EVEN WEAK STORM...IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH BUT THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE A
SHORT-WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SRN NV/WRN UT. THIS WAVE
IS CAUSING SOME HEAVY PRECIP ATTM AND MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON
THIS IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOMORROW. THE NAM80
DOES SHOW A STRONG VORT MAX GETTING SHEARED OUT AS IT ENTERS OUR
CWA SO WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH THIS SHORT-WAVE AFFECTS THE
WX. DID BUMP UP POPS N OF I-70 TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS SUPPORT. ANOTHER STORMY DAY IN STORE FOR THE SAN JUANS AND
ALL HIGHER TERRAIN MUCH LIKE TODAY.

TEMPS WILL HOVER AROUND NORMAL WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER WHERE
CONVECTION...AND THUS CLOUDS...SET UP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

THIS WEEKEND...WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A LESSER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...THE PERSISTENT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
RETROGRADES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE ERODES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. STILL PW VALUES ARE
AROUND 0.9 INCH ON SATURDAY...DOWN ON SUNDAY TO 0.75 INCH FOR ALL
BUT THE SOUTHERN-MOST ZONES. STORM MOTION SATURDAY IS TO THE EAST
5 MPH VEERING TO THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH SUNDAY.

THIS LOWER GRADE MONSOON PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH DIURNAL STORMS AND SHOWERS FAVORING EASTERN UTAH AND THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. STORM MOTION INCREASES
MONDAY-TUESDAY TO THE SE AT 15-25 MPH. SO A THREAT OF ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN ON SATURDAY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND
THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
BY TUESDAY AS FUELS ARE CRITICALLY DRY THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THE WEST COAST TROUGH HAS CLIMBED OVER THE RIDGE...
PHASES WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF DEEPER LOW NOW STRETCHED FROM
HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL DIVE DOWN THE PLAINS.
THIS BRINGS SOME FORCING INTO THIS CWA INCLUDING WEAK JET SUPPORT.
AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE THURSDAY DRIER AIR WORKS OVER THE REGION.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY
BECOME NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH 09Z THIS
MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. AFTER 18Z
FRIDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ACTIVITY DRIFTING INTO THE VALLEYS AFTER 21Z.
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINAL
SITES...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL SEE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COZ003-006-007-009-
     011-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR UTZ022-025-027>029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JDC



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