Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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499
FXUS65 KGJT 291729
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1129 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING FROM THE GUNNISON VALLEY
NORTHWARD INTO THE ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND WILL SPREAD NORTH AND
WESTWARD TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS IN WESTERN COLORADO WILL SEE AT
LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION...WITH THE RAIN-SNOW LINE AROUND 7000 TO
7500 FEET TODAY. A RECENT CALL FROM VAIL PASS REPORTED NO
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE ROADS...SO SNOW IMPACTS WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITY MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. THE PRECIPITATION FOCUS IS
STILL EXPECTED TO DWINDLE TONIGHT AS DYNAMICAL FORCING SHIFTS
EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE BRINGING WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN
AND HIGH MT SNOW TO THE AREA WILL RIDE ALONG THE CO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER TODAY. ITS 500 MB CENTER SHOULD BE OVER SE CO BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS STATES BY THIS EVENING.
WHILE THIS OCCURS THE BAND OF BEST UPLIFT WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL
CO TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO
LESSEN...BECOMING DOMINATED BY FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WITH
SOME NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHICS THROWN IN. THIS WILL PUT THE FOCUS
OF PRECIP EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT HAYDEN TO EAGLE TO PAGOSA
SPRINGS TONIGHT.

THE NEXT LOW WILL COME OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH NEVADA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CAUGHT IN THE COL BETWEEN THE
TWO LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS...THE
SECOND LOW DIGS TO SOUTHERN CA AND STRENGTHENS. BECAUSE OF THE
STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE U.S. THIS LOW TURNS BRIEFLY EAST
AND MOVES INTO AZ SAT...THEN IS FORCED NORTH INTO UT SUNDAY. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF
THE LOW CENTER SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SO EXPECT A WET WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE SECOND LOW BREAKS UP AND MOISTURE ERODES
TO THE EAST. A STRONG RIDGE TAKES OVER TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BRINGING WELCOME DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING FROM THE GUNNISON VALLEY
NORTHWARD INTO THE ROARING FORK VALLEY...AND WILL SPREAD NORTH AND
WESTWARD TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS IN WESTERN COLORADO WILL SEE
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS AT TIMES DUE TO PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
RAIN-SNOW LINE AROUND 7000 TO 7500 FEET TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
OFF TOWARD SUNSET...WHEN A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-
     009-010-012-013-017>019.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023-
     028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JAM



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