Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 241711
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1011 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

OUR LATEST WINTER STORM IS FINALLY ON ITS WAY OUT EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL AZ. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON. IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THERE CONTINUES TO
BE LIGHT SNOW/CLOUDS MOVING UP INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
UT. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT ACTIVITY MAY PICK UP IN FAR SOUTHWEST
CO FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING AS WELL. BUT AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST-
SOUTHEAST...THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE TOP OF IT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER...FOR A DECREASE IN SNOW FOR THIS
AREA TOO. WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL OUR REMAINING WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR THE ABAJO MOUNTAINS AS ANY LINGERING SNOWFALL WILL BE
LIGHT...AND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING.

AS SNOW HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THESE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...FOG AND LOW
STRATUS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT SEVERAL SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE ADDED FOG TO THIS MORNING`S GRIDS...MAINLY TO AREAS THAT
RECEIVED GOOD SNOWFALL IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT THAT FOG
WILL AGAIN FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME GOOD
MELTING TODAY FOR A VERY MOIST SURFACE LAYER.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HALF...WITH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BY THIS EVENING JUST ABOUT ALL SNOW SHOULD HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE
SOUTH. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND BRUSH THE NORTHWEST CORNER ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CO ZONES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK. THIS STORM WILL MOSTLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL DIVIDE...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE SAN
JUANS BY MIDDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

A SECOND LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT SUSTAINING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SNOWFALL OVER THESE AREAS THURSDAY MORNING
...ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
CAUSING SNOW TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LARGELY IMPACTING THE SAME
AREAS AND EVENTUALLY INCORPORATING THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRIDAY AS A MORE
SIZABLE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
DESPITE OFF AND ON SHOWERS DURING THE MID AND LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS MOISTURE DEPTH
AND DYNAMIC LIFT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.

THINGS GET INTERESTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO RESEMBLE THE SETUP FROM THE LAST STORM. THE
BROAD AND STRONGLY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST DIGS FARTHER
SOUTH FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE PACIFIC
MOISTURE TAP IS REESTABLISHED CAUSING 7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY TO
JUMP TO 3.75 TO 4.0 G/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS SUCH...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL EVENT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH
LIFT NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS WITH THE PAST STORM. STILL...THE
GFS40 SUGGESTS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A 2 FEET OF SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS AND TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR HEAVY SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILL AREAS AS WELL. ECMWF WAS SIMILAR...BUT SNOWFALL OUTPUT
NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...BUT THAT APPEARS MORE OF A BIAS THAN SOMETHING
THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN AT FACE VALUE. WAY TOO EARLY TO START
HOISTING WATCHES BUT CERTAINLY WARRANTS KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS EVOLVING WEEKEND STORM.

MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY SNOWFALL DECREASES MONDAY WITH ECMWF
A BIT QUICKER WINDING IT DOWN. A CONVEYER BELT OF WEAK SYSTEMS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT...OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WON/T CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AS
CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW ARE LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY UBIQUITOUS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 947 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

A BANK OF STRATUS THIS MORNING FILLED THE GUNNISON AND
UNCOMPAHGRE VALLEYS...AND THE NORTH FORK OF THE GUNNISON...
AFFECTING KGUC AND KMTJ. SOME PATCHY FOG LIMITED VSBYS AS WELL.
VISIBILITY IMPROVED AS FOG DISSIPATED...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z WHEN THE STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP.

KASE HAS BEEN IFR THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THIS TOO
SHOULD BREAK UP BEFORE 20Z. VISIBILITY SHOULD RISE ABOVE IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS FIRST THEN THE 002-004OVC AGL CIGS WILL LIFT TO
BETWEEN 015-025 AT ABOUT 20Z...AND ABOVE MVFR BY 00Z.

THE FOUR CORNERS WILL EXPERIENCE SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH
00Z AS THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW OVER AZ SLIDES SOUTHEAST TODAY.
CLOUD BASES SHOULD RUN BETWEEN 100-120BKN-OVC MSL. THESE SHOULD
THIN OUT AFTER ABOUT 03Z.

AFTER 06Z PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP AND MAY AFFECT KEGE...
KASE...KGUC AND KDRO WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT THIS FOG WITH AFFECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...CC



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