Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 252139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
339 PM MDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 318 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

After a busy end to last week, this week starts off very pleasant
as high pressure builds in bringing a return to sunny skies and
warmer temperatures. While we experience this weather today, a
weak upper level disturbance will carve out a closed low over the
Arizona, New Mexico, and old Mexico border. This low won`t pose
any threat to us in the short-term but will mid-week onwards. For
the remainder of today and tomorrow then, plenty of sunshine on
tap, cool overnights with daytime temperatures slowly warming up.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Tuesday will bring one more day of sunny skies and warm
temperatures to the region as the area of low pressure slowly
moves northward. By Wednesday, some model differences begin to
arise. The NAM wants to keep the closed low closed while the GFS
opens up the low and replaces it with an open wave. The other
differences are that the NAM keeps the low and attendant moisture
further to our west and also speeds up the northward movement. The
GFS, on the other hand, takes the open wave and moves it directly
over our area bringing isolated precipitation Wednesday night
overspreading much of the CWA by daybreak. Quite the difference in
output so we`ll keep an eye on the next few model runs to see
which one wins out.

As far as precipitation is concerned, most rainfall looks to end
early Friday morning but by Friday afternoon another wave looks to
move over the region bringing another round of showers and storms.
By Saturday morning, the wave will have shifted well to our east
though some residual showers are possible favoring the higher
terrain. Snow levels look to be around 12,500 feet so only the
highest peaks should see any snowfall with little accumulation

Temperatures will run warm at the start of the long-term period
and drop to normal values as the system moves through.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 318 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

VFR conditions continue under high pressure. Normal diurnally
driven winds expected.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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