Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 142345
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
545 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts of 45-55 mph are possible across portions of
  northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this evening.

- Moderate to heavy is expected in the southern mountains
  tonight through tomorrow night. Upwards of two feet is
  possible.

- Wind gusts of 45-55 mph are possible across the Four Corners
  area tomorrow morning and afternoon.

- Through early next week there may be several rounds of
  precipitation around the Four Corners region due to a stalled
  out low pressure in the Desert Southwest.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 545 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The end of a sheared out wave and gusty winds continue to
impact the eastern Uintas with snow and blowing snow so have
extended the winter storm warning until midnight.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The deep closed low has settled in over the Mohave Desert with the
upper level low moving overhead through 300mb. By Saturday morning
the low will be vertically stacked through 150mb with no real
inklings to move out. The easterly flow aloft across northern
Colorado and Utah is pushing some of the moisture from the Front
Range over the divide that has kept snow showers going over the
northern mountains this afternoon. For this reason, the Winter Storm
Warning remains in effect through this afternoon over the eastern
Uinta Mountains as some of these showers have been heavy at times.
As these showers are decreasing, this Warning will likely be allowed
to expire on time. If you will be driving in this area, use caution
as the roads continue to be hazardous.

The southerly flow east of the low pressure system is pushing deep
moisture with pwats 200% of normal up into southern Colorado and
Utah tonight through Saturday morning bringing heavy snow to the
southern face of the San Juan Mountains. Orographics will keep
showers going through most of the period, but a couple shortwave
disturbances within the low will kick off particularly heavy showers
in the San Juans overnight tonight and again Friday evening into
Saturday morning. For this reason, a Winter Storm Warning remains in
effect through Friday night for the southern face San Juan Mountains
with a Winter Weather Advisory for the northern side. Additionally,
a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Abajo and La Sal
Mountains above 7000 feet and a Winter Weather Advisory for the
Uncompahgre Plateau through the same period.

This low pressure system is producing strong easterly gradient winds
across northwestern Colorado and the Uinta Basin in Utah this
afternoon that will last through the evening before dropping off. As
the low settles a bit farther south overnight, the stronger winds
will shift south into the Four Corners area by morning. The Wind
Advisory for the Uinta Basin and northwest Colorado continues
through midnight tonight and a second Wind Advisory for the Four
Corners area takes affect at 6 AM Friday and runs through 6PM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Saturday morning still sees the upper level low hanging out over
Arizona, with southerly to southeasterly flow still pumping moisture
into southern portions of Eastern Utah and western Colorado. With
favorable upslope flow over the southeast Utah mountains, the San
Juans, and the Uncompahgre Plateau combined with a lobe of energy
rotating from south to north through the region, an additional 3-6
inches of snow is expected by Saturday night. That lobe of energy
also looks to bring a quick burst of enhanced snowfall to the
central mountains Saturday night into Sunday before rates taper off
across the area. This diminishing in activity from Sunday onward is
due to the upper level cutoff finally starting to fill and weaken,
although it remains over Arizona and will continue to feed light
orographic snow showers across the south. An area of high pressure
to the north will push in across northeast Utah and northwest
Colorado during the early parts of next week, allowing for some
potential warming...but all of that depends on how much cloud cover
sticks around.

Models want to keep this very blocky pattern in place over the
Southwest through at least the middle of next week, with the
weakening low sitting and spinning over western Arizona and southern
Nevada and high pressure across the Pacific Northwest and northern
Great Basin. This will keep southern portions of the CWA cooler and
cloudy, with continued light mountain showers, while the northern
half of the area maybe sees some sun and warmer temperatures. There
is some indication in the models that by the middle of next week the
upper level cutoff low will open into a trough and eventually get
swept up in zonal flow aloft, but model agreement is poor in just
about every aspect save for the low turning into an open wave. This
is also already a highly anomalous pattern, and models notoriously
struggle with highly amplified or very blocky patterns, so until
there`s better model consensus on this low getting kicked east, it`s
safe to say it will stick around and continue to cause headaches.
And, thanks to this low, temperatures will remain generally on the
cooler side and unsettle conditions will prevail at least into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Moisture and energy will constantly be feeding into western
Colorado and eastern Utah over the next 24 hours. This will lead
to varying degrees of precipitation coverage and rates through
this time. Most impacted will be the southern portions of our
area as this moisture encounters the San Juans and the southeast
Utah ranges. Gusty winds will also continue and lead to areas of
LLWS and mountain wave turbulence. KDRO...KTEX have the highest
probability of MVFR or below conditions and this relayed in the
forecast...lesser confidence to the North under this
reverse/easterly flow regime where downslope winds are
inhibiting precipitation and lower clouds.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for COZ001.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for COZ017-018.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Saturday for COZ019.
     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ021.
UT...Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ024.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Saturday for UTZ028.
     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM MDT Friday for UTZ022.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT


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