Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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869
FXUS65 KGJT 290014
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
614 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

WELL-ORGANIZED CLOSED LOW HAS BEEN PUMPING MOISTURE UP INTO EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TODAY...WITH SNOW LEVEL INITIALLY
AROUND 6200 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING HAVING RISEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TO NEAR 8500 FEET. WE ARE EXPECTING THE SNOW LEVEL TO DROP
TONIGHT TO 7500 FEET AND POTENTIALLY 7000 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 INCHES OR GREATER ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
CONTINUE. A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DECREASES AROUND SUNSET. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT A GENERAL
AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN SLUNG ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AT MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW MOVES OUT OF WESTERN COLORADO...BUT SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER RABBIT EARS AND VAIL PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

THE NEXT CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH THAN WE WERE
SEEING ON FORECAST MODELS 24 HOURS AGO...NOW INTO ARIZONA LATE
SATURDAY. THE CLOSED LOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE FOUR
CORNERS ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING A RAINY DAY TO THE FOUR CORNERS
SPREADING AS FAR NORTH AS EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO AS WELL. THE STEADY RAIN SHOULD END BY LATE SUNDAY BUT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL INITIATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS AS
THE REGION REMAINS IN AN UNSTABLE PATTERN.

HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY RETURNS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SWEEP SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH 06Z. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS/VSBY IN SHOWERS WITH BELOW ILS CIGS POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF TIMES.
MEANWHILE...SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RESULT IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SHOWERS DECREASE OVER ALL BUT THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS NEAR MOUNTAIN BASES WILL LOWER TO
THE HIGHER VALLEY FLOORS BY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ004-009-010-
     012-013-017>019.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ023-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...NL



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