Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 231016
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
416 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 416 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The monsoonal plume that has been over the forecast area for the
past week will be shifting slowly south today with drier air
working into the northern zones late this afternoon and
overnight. Still plenty of juice to work with today and expect
another round of storms favoring the San Juans. Second favored
area will be along the deeper moisture gradient which looks to
set up along the higher terrain just north of Interstate 70.
Eastward storm motion will be slow across the southern zones, but
expected to pick up a bit the further north you go. NAM hinting at
another weak wave tracking across the north this afternoon, which
appears to be associated with the drier air mass moving in. Have
nudged pops up a bit, especially over the southern and central
mountains in western Colorado. With precipitable water values
continuing to drop and  Heavy rain will be even more localized
and no plans on hoisting any flash flood watches attm. Sunday
looks dry across the northern zones with diurnally driven activity
continuing along and south of Interstate 70.

Temperatures will be on the plus side of normal through Sunday
with many lower valleys making a run at the triple digit heat.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 416 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The upper level ridging over the region will be suppressed as we
start off the new week with the deeper plume dropping south. This
will keep the focus of new convection over our southern zones
with little to no activity expected across the north. Some
recycling of the moisture is expected Monday and Tuesday, leading
to additional diurnally driven convection. The ridge then slides
back over the southern Great Basin and swings drier weather back
over the entire forecast area by mid-week. This will also bump
temps back up a few degrees with more triple digit heat possible
for the lower valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 416 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again occur across the
region through this evening. Expect storms to initially develop
along and over the higher terrain by 18z with activity drifting
over the valleys by 21z this afternoon. Brief heavy rain, gusty
winds and small hail possible with any storm along with local
mountain obscuration. Away from convection, VFR conditions will
persist.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



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