Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 240305

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
905 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Issued at 905 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory. Latest radar not picking up
any precipitation over the Colorado mountains and models indicated
little to no additional snowfall is likely during the remainder of
the night.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Closed upper level low over Nevada will slowly move eastward to
NE Utah by noon Sunday. Because of the slow progression of this
closed low, a band of showers picking up moisture from the Gulf
of California will slowly trek eastward across western Colorado
through tonight. With cold air advecting into the region with this
baroclinic zone, snow levels have lowered to near 9000 feet, with
snowfall accumulations this morning on top of the Grand Mesa
above 10,000 feet from 4 to 6 inches. Winter weather advisories
continue for the West Elks, Flattops and Grand Mesa for locations
above 10,000 ft through midnight tonight.

A dry slot behind this swath of moisture will move into most of
western Colorado overnight...with the closed low in Utah producing
rain and snow showers over NE Utah by Sunday morning. Forecast
models indicate development of rain and snow showers in the
Elkhead, Park, and Gore Ranges Sunday afternoon in favorable
northwesterly flow. Accumulations look to be light, and will end
sometime in the evening. Snow in the eastern Uinta mountains
should end by midnight Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

General troughiness continues over the region on Monday, keeping
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.
Long term model models diverge on Wednesday with the development
of a closed low system over the southwestern US, indicating the
next weather system moving into the Four Corners sometime in the
last week. Timing and extent of this system is not well
established at this time, and long term NCEP ensembles not
indicating a particularly strong signal on this feature. That
being said, long range models indicate another multi-day
precipitation producing system moving in by the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 628 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Lingering showers may yet impact KCNY, KRIL, KASE and KVEL early
this evening. CIGS may dip below ILS breakpoints for KRIL, KEGE
and KASE. Meanwhile, drier air filtering over southeast Utah and
southwest Colorado has ended any real threat of rain for TAF
sites to the south. As an upper level low moves over northeast
Utah later tonight and Sunday, there is a good chance for showers
over the eastern Uinta basin affecting KVEL. This activity is
unlikely to reduce CIGS or VSBY below VFR. In fact, VFR conditions
are likely at all TAF sites through the next 24 hours.






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