Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 262144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
344 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 344 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

Satellite imagery indicates the next disturbance upstream of
Colorado beginning to elongate over eastern Utah, southern Montana,
and Wyoming. Short term forecast models bringing elongated area of
500mb energy into NE Utah and NW Colorado overnight and into
Saturday morning...but conditions looking quite dry in the lower
levels along this front. The NAM and GFS are showing a line of
showers along this boundary...but the short term convective models
are not which may be because of their more frequent updates and
potentially picking up later initiation of showers with the system
still well north of the area. Still kept small snow accumulations
above 9 to 10kt in the northcentral Colorado mountains for
tonight, but thinking that any accumulations which do occur will
be rather spotty. The trough swings through eastern Utah and
western Colorado throughout the day Saturday and ought to bring
showers or at least virga along its WSW to ENE axis as it pushes
southward. Thinking we could have a few dry storms develop since
there have been a few storms not producing precipitation today
ahead of the system. Much drier air will filter in behind this
system, so the threat for precipitation will be low across the
region. Did keep low shower/storm probabilities in the forecast
across NE Utah and NW Colorado and moving southward throughout the
day Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 344 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

Large amplitude high pressure on track to develop over the western
US on Sunday with a closed low developing by Wednesday and Thursday
over SoCal and Baja CA. The timing and progression of this closed
low has been changing a lot so confidence is low to moderate on
timing of this playing out. Forecast models are still indicating
diurnally induced showers and thunderstorms each afternoon next
week, though available moisture looks too low Sunday through Tuesday
for much activity. Starting Wednesday with that closed low southwest
of the Four Corners developing, moisture is expected to begin
increasing from the south and provide support for more widespread
afternoon convection.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1057 AM MDT Fri May 26 2017

Yet another cold front will drop into the area from the Great
Basin this evening and into Saturday. This front will bring
another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the
northern two-thirds of eastern Utah and western Colorado with
gusty outflow winds and brief heavy precipitation being the
primary threats with stronger storms. Expect occasional ILS cigs
and brief MVFR cigs near showers, with these conditions persisting
through tonight. Away from the showers, expected VFR conditions
to prevail at all sites.


Issued at 344 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

Very dry and windy conditions are ongoing across much of eastern
Utah and western Colorado this afternoon. Red Flag Warning
continues for Colorado Fire Weather zones 203, 290 and 292.
Portions of Colorado Fire Weather zone 207 will all see brief
periods of critical fire weather conditions today as well.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will also occur
across the region today, mainly in central and northeastern Utah
and southwest Colorado, with gusty outflow winds to 45 mph, brief
heavy precipitation and small hail all a possibly. Red Flag
conditions are NOT expected over the next few days as conditions
become less windy with high pressure building across the western


CO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ203-290-292.



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