643
FXUS65 KGJT 280445
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1045 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions dominate the forecast through the
  weekend.

- An influx in moisture leads to increasing precipitation
  chances early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Dry and calm conditions are expected to continue through the short
term as high pressure builds. Observations show relative humidity
values in or near the single digits this afternoon, and the same
will occur tomorrow afternoon. Winds are generally expected to
be light. However, localized stronger wind gusts of over 25 mph
may occur. Given how dry we are, red flag conditions are
possible in spots where localized gusts exceed 25 mph. Warmth is
also expected as the building high pressure contributes to
temperatures gradually increasing each day through the weekend.

Weak moisture advection may bring slightly elevated PWATs to the
Uinta mountains tomorrow afternoon. The GFS Ens is showing
greater moisture anomalies than the ECMWF Ens, at around 120%
and 100% of normal, respectively. If this moisture does move in
tomorrow, a weak passing disturbance could support isolated
thunderstorms over the Uinta mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

High pressure will remain centered over central Arizona and New
Mexico at the start of the long term period. On Sunday, a front is
progged to move across our northern neighbors, and may introduce
enough moisture to allow a few stray showers or storms to form
Sunday afternoon. If this occurs, they`ll fire over the northern
half of the CWA but even so, coverage is very isolated. More
isolated convection will be possible again on Monday with the best
chances looking to be along the Divide. As all this occurs, an area
of low pressure will be spinning off the California coast and as it
slowly drifts eastward, deeper moisture will start advecting into
the region. This increase will see an uptick in showers and storms
across the CWA. Latest model runs continue to show the deepest
moisture and widespread showers and storms firing on Wednesday and
again on Thursday as an upper level trough moves through the region.
The NBM is on board with these solutions so the forecast follows
suit for convection Tuesday increasing for Wednesday and Thursday
before decreasing Friday. Plenty of changes are possible between now
and then with regards to the timing of the trough, available
moisture, and coverage so expect some changes to the forecast over
the coming days. Having said that, confidence is continuing to
increase for this widespread precip.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

VFR conditions and mostly light, terrain-driven winds prevail
tonight. Some 20-25 mph gusts are possible again across the
region tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT