Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 281513
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
913 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

HAVE ALLOWED FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE...OTHERWISE NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL PASS EAST OF THE DIVIDE
AROUND SUNRISE. FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...WILL STRUGGLE TO
RECOVER FROM COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS SO EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WHATEVER VALLEYS
DO NOT HAVE A HARD FREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE AT RISK FOR
ANOTHER ONE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US AMPLIFIES ON WEDNESDAY AND HELPS
TO BRING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS
MIDDAY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CALM WINDS AT NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEAR
SKIES WILL HELP SET UP SURFACE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS. LOW TEMPS
WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN MANY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY
AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. LIGHT DIURNALLY WINDS WILL BE THE
NORM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

MODELS INDICATED A CHANGE COMING THIS WEEKEND AS A FAIRLY DEEP
PACIFIC TROUGH ROLLS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
AREA WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ENHANCING OUTPUT FROM
THIS STORM. HOWEVER...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES DIFFICULT TO NAIL
DOWN THIS FAR OUT AND MODELS DIFFER WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW BLENDED SOLUTION
UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS REALIZED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
COOL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH SUPERBLEND
DID NOT REPRESENT WELL. THEREFORE...WORKED IN BLEND OF ECMWF AND
GFS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP EASTWARD...MOVING BEYOND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AROUND SUNRISE. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MPM
SHORT TERM...NL/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/NL
AVIATION...NL



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