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000
FXUS65 KGJT 082108
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
208 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

A FEW LIGHT CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL HANG ON NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND
SUNSET. THIS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY ENDS...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS PLACES EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

THE NEXT STORM TIMED FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS LOOKING VERY
SIMILAR TO STORM THAT JUST PASSED.

MONDAY...THE W-E RIDGE FLATTENS TO THE SOUTH AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH
WORKS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FAST ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS WITH
GUSTY WINDS MIXING INTO MOST VALLEYS BY THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEW WEEK. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE NE UTAH WITH
THICKENING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE UINTA MTNS AS THE
115KT JET INVADES.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WORKS OVER THE REGION AND SPLITS
WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION RETROGRADING. JET SAGS THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN- CENTRAL
ZONES OVERNIGHT THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVEL DROPS TO VALLEY BOTTOMS NORTH...8000FT SOUTH. SNOW TO
FAVOR THE NW CO MTNS...THE GFS CAPTURES GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OVER THE FLATTOPS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SAGGING THROUGH THE ELKS
TO WEST ELKS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 700MB WINDS SHIFT TO NE AT
30KTS NORTH WHICH WILL SHUT DOWN MOST SNOWFALL EXCEPT POSSIBLY
ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE UINTA MTNS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
OVER THE SOUTH MAY YIELD ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...DEFORMATION REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH WITH
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLIT TROUGH LANGUISHING ALONG THE
UT/AZ BORDER. THIS WEAK LOW PROGRESSES ON THURSDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH DIVES DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER UNTIL 02Z ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN VALLEYS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 30 MPH MAY
OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF DISSIPATING SHOWERS. TERMINAL SITES
POSSIBLY IMPACTED BY THESE SHOWERS INCLUDE KDRO AND KTEX. THIS
ACTIVITY ENDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JDC