Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 221130
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED PACIFIC LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN -1 C AND +2 C WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FEET. TODAY WILL START OFF
WITH A DRY SLOT SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
AFTER SURFACE HEATING REMOVES THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN...SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IT APPEARS IN
THE MODELS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WON`T RETURN UNTIL SATURDAY. AT
THAT TIME THE LOW CENTER WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT.
THIS STORM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND THE CIRCULATION AND UPLIFT
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...PRODUCING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY AND
RAINY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND
REACHES THE NRN PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY... KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED. SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WRN
CO MOUNTAINS.

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO ON MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS MAY
MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES AS MORE SUNBREAKS WILL BE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SPINNING LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS THAT SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SHUT DOWN THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS...BUT LIMITS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND MOST VALLEYS WOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I70 WILL TRACK NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING. THE BREAK ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE BRIEF AS CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 17Z AND MOVE NORTHWARD. AFTER
20Z...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE -SHRA/-TSRA WITH PASSING
SHOWERS/STORMS LOWERING CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS OVER SKI
COUNTRY TAF SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS COMPARED TO THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ010-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF


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