Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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407
FXUS65 KGJT 111132
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
432 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL GET UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ENTRAINED INTO IT THANKS TO A TROUGH OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
PUSHING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FLATTEN
BY LATE FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH UPSTREAM REACHES THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. BROUGHT MAX TEMPS DOWN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
PERSISTENCE EXPECTED AND MOS GUIDANCE STILL RUNNING TOO HIGH WITH
THE CURRENT SNOWPACK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

FLAT RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A
PACNW SHRTWV TRACKS SE ACROSS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. SYSTEM
DIGS WITH GRADIENTS TIGHTENING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BULK OF UPPER SUPPORT WILL DRIVE NORTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE AND IMPROVED
OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG WITH A SHOT OF CAA WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SQUEEZE OUT A ROUND OF SNOW FOR OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME
SOUTHERN PUSH ANTICIPATED INTO OUR CENTRAL ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS HEIGHTS START BUILDING BACK UP ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS HELPS TO STAND THINGS UP AND SEND A SHOT OF BETTER
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CENTRAL ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
EXPECTED FOR THE SAN JUANS...WITH MAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. VALLEYS WILL SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WESTERN RIDGING REGAINS CONTROL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR A WETTER MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRINGING A LONGWAVE
TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WITH RIDGING SHIFTING EAST OUT INTO
THE PLAINS. THAT REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MILD CONDITIONS START OFF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT COOL DOWN A
BIT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...BEFORE REBOUNDING EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VSBY
DUE TO FOG OR HAZE IN A FEW AREAS WHERE VALLEY INVERSIONS PERSIST.
THE UINTA BASIN WILL CONTINUE SEE THE MOST WIDESPREAD HAZE.
VISIBILITY AT KVEL WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 4-6SM THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW THAT RANGE. OTHER AIRPORTS
THAT MAY AGAIN SEE PERIODS OF FOG OR HAZE THROUGH MID MORNING INCLUDE
KEGE...KCNY AND KCAG.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



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