Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 142044
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
244 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A SHARP RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. THE RIDGELINE WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS SUPPRESSED A BIT
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FEEDING MOISTURE INTO TEXAS
AND WESTERN MEXICO. THE OTHER KEY PLAYER IN FUTURE WEATHER IS
CAT 4 HURRICANE ODILE WHICH WAS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA AND MOVING NORTHWEST. THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE
WESTERN RIDGE WILL PRODUCE DRY AND WARM WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. MORNING LOWS WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL BUT MAX TEMPS WILL
RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER EASTERN UTAH ON TUESDAY
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY. A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING.

THE VARIABLES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE A PAC NW TROUGH WHICH
LOOKS TO MOVE ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND HURRICANE ODILE
WHICH IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS THE PAC NW TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE...THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
CHANGE THE REGION/S GENERAL FLOW TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ODILE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH ABOUT ONE INCH BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER. LATEST
12Z MODELS HAVE PUSHED THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE BACK A DAY COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN CONTIGUOUS US STATES TOWARD THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL ULTIMATELY DECIDE ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WE WILL HAVE IN
THE REGION. THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE FOR A WET WEEKEND...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THRU 02Z THIS
EVENING ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE
BOOKCLIFFS...FLATTOPS AND THE MOUNTAINS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
NORTH OVER MONARCH PASS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO ABOUT 35 MPH...WITH KASE...KSBS...
KEGE...AND KRIL HAVING ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY
THIS WINDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...CC



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