Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 221706
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1106 AM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NUDGING EAST TODAY ALLOWING SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...PEAKING DURING MAX
HEATING. WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION
ALSO EXPECTED...FOCUSING ON OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT DIMINISHES AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE WIND
MACHINE WILL KEEP CRANKING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL
MAKE FOR A TRICKY WIND FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE RAMPED WINDS UP A NOTCH ABOVE FRIDAYS WINDS WITH
SPEEDS REACHING INTO OUR LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE
VALLEYS. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER COULD INHIBIT DEEPEST
MIXING...SQUASHING THE STRONGEST GUSTS. SO FOR NOW...HAVE BUILT
THE GRIDS TO SUPPORT AN ADVISORY BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 12Z
RUNS BEFORE MAKING A CALL ON ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR SATURDAY.
ALSO SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN
UPPER SUPPORT TRAVELS ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING...SO BEST FORCING
AND PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A BIT ON SATURDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WILL MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH LINE OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING IT.
EXPECT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE CONDITIONS SETTLE DOWN LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH DRIVING A FEW OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS INTO THE PARK AND GORE
RANGES IN NORTHERN COLORADO...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
PATTERN IS WIDE OPEN TO ALLOW YET ANOTHER DIGGING SYSTEM TO ROLL
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL DIG A BIT MORE DRIVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY PROMISING A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH TO START OFF...BUT
DROP DOWN TO MOUNTAIN BASES BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS DISPOSE OF
THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
TRANSITORY AND DIRTY RIDGE ROLLING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. WITH YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOMING OFF TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE SPRING ROLLER COASTER THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WITH QUICK JUMPS
OF PLUS OR MINUS 10 TO 15 DEGREES AHEAD OF AND BEHIND SYSTEMS...
RESULTING IN A NEAR NORMAL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF TURBULENCE THROUGH
ABOUT 02Z TODAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...FOCUSED ON THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. NO TAF SITES
AREA EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS. ON SATURDAY A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 438 AM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DUE IN LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FUEL STATUES FROM OUR PARTNERS SUGGEST MANY
AREAS IN GREEN-UP AT THIS TIME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COLORADO
FIRE ZONE 207. GRIDDED FIELDS DRIVING RH VALUES DOWN AROUND 15
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY OVER SECTIONS OF ZONE
207 WITH WINDS EXCEEDING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. AT THIS TIME...LESS
THAN HALF OF THE ZONE WILL BE IMPACTED...SO NO FIRE HIGHLIGHTS
EXPECTED...BUT WE WILL BE MONITORING THE AREA CLOSE. SIMILAR
SITUATION EXISTS ON SATURDAY IN THIS SAME AREA...ALTHOUGH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP RH VALUES UP A BIT MORE VERSUS TODAYS
VALUES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...JDC



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