Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 221757

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1157 AM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Issued at 1157 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Current satellite looks an awful lot like 24 hours ago, but
shifted slightly east. Showers and some isolated thunderstorms
possible over northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado this
afternoon, but otherwise a pretty mellow overcast breezy day as


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016

The large low pressure system over the NW U.S. responsible for
the windy conditions of the last few days moved from Oregon to NW
Montana with its center cross into Canada as of about 3 am. The
system`s surface cold front was moving across the CO and UT
border over NW CO and stretching back to the SW. The frontal band
clouds were over NE UT and NW CO showed decreasing enhancement as
the best dynamics move north. Throughout today this band of clouds
with isolated to low-end scattered precipitation will move slowly
east. Aside from wave clouds over ridges the southern half of the
forecast area will remain nearly cloudless.

Tonight and Monday will see little change with southwest flow
continuing and low areal coverage precipitation over northern
areas. Temperatures should remain near to a few degrees below

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Additional low pressure energy over the Pacific Northwest will
keep a mean long wave trough over the western CONUS through the
period. The flow will remain from the southwest through midweek,
with typical springtime afternoon breezes. One embedded shortwave
passing on Tue will increase winds somewhat, and may bring a
slight chance of showers/afternoon thunderstorms mainly to the
northern portion.

Then a better defined low pressure system will break off from the
mean trough during the second half of the week. While forecast
details are still uncertain, this will result in a better chance
of showers and late day thunderstorms on Thu and Fri. Models
indicate conditions may remain unsettled into the weekend.

Look for a warming trend early in the work week, however temps are
still expected to stay below normal. Then temps should cool
midweek through Fri, with a possible rebound on Sat.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours, but winds will
remain elevated as the front remains stalled over western
Colorado. A cold front will very slowly drag through the area
today and tonight, but clouds will help prevent surface winds from
increasing as much as they did on Saturday. Upper level jet exits
the region after winds will subside and LLWS should not
be a threat tonight.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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