Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 240553
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1153 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BREEZE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED ON SATELLITE...THOUGH POCKETS OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER PVA AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
WERE PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN UT. WILL EXPECT A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...MOST OF IT BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z...WITH
THE HIGHEST LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF ZONE
4.

ON TUESDAY A TRANSITORY RIDGE BUILDS IN AND JUST AS QUICKLY WILL
BE PUSHED OUT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND MINOR COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT`S SHORTWAVE...THOUGH ITS TRAJECTORY IS MORE FROM THE NW
AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING PASSAGE. WILL
EXPECT SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS THAT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
ANOTHER FRONT IS FORCED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN BY A PASSING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THE GUIDANCE TREND HAS BEEN DOWNWARD FOR
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS AND SO WENT PUSHED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES. HIGHS LOOK TO END UP SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE WARM LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING
PERIOD OF WEEK/S PAST. WE WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE WAVE
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHICS THE MAIN PLAYERS FOR
FORCING. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS STILL LOOK TO BE FAVORED
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND CURRENT FORECAST TREND ON
TRACK. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET WEDNESDAY AND
SHOULD NOT MAKE A RE-APPEARANCE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. UNTIL
THEN STRONG RIDGING IN THE WEST WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THURSDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY TO START THE WARMUP
WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE COOLEST
OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND COULD BRING NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO
MANY AREAS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

QUITE A WINDY EVENING OUT THERE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. SFC GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
AT NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE A BREAK TUESDAY MORNING. MTN SNOW IS OCCURRING AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING KASE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
12Z TUES AND 00Z TUES EVENING BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH TUES NIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JAM


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