Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 241114
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
414 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

OUR LATEST WINTER STORM IS FINALLY ON ITS WAY OUT EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL AZ. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON. IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THERE CONTINUES TO
BE LIGHT SNOW/CLOUDS MOVING UP INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
UT. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT ACTIVITY MAY PICK UP IN FAR SOUTHWEST
CO FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING AS WELL. BUT AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST-
SOUTHEAST...THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE TOP OF IT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER...FOR A DECREASE IN SNOW FOR THIS
AREA TOO. WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL OUR REMAINING WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR THE ABAJO MOUNTAINS AS ANY LINGERING SNOWFALL WILL BE
LIGHT...AND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING.

AS SNOW HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THESE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...FOG AND LOW
STRATUS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT SEVERAL SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE ADDED FOG TO THIS MORNING`S GRIDS...MAINLY TO AREAS THAT
RECEIVED GOOD SNOWFALL IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT THAT FOG
WILL AGAIN FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME GOOD
MELTING TODAY FOR A VERY MOIST SURFACE LAYER.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HALF...WITH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BY THIS EVENING JUST ABOUT ALL SNOW SHOULD HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE
SOUTH. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND BRUSH THE NORTHWEST CORNER ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CO ZONES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK. THIS STORM WILL MOSTLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL DIVIDE...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE SAN
JUANS BY MIDDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

A SECOND LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ZIPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT SUSTAINING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SNOWFALL OVER THESE AREAS THURSDAY MORNING
...ANOTHER WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
CAUSING SNOW TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LARGELY IMPACTING THE SAME
AREAS AND EVENTUALLY INCORPORATING THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRIDAY AS A MORE
SIZABLE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
DESPITE OFF AND ON SHOWERS DURING THE MID AND LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS MOISTURE DEPTH
AND DYNAMIC LIFT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.

THINGS GET INTERESTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO RESEMBLE THE SETUP FROM THE LAST STORM. THE
BROAD AND STRONGLY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST DIGS FARTHER
SOUTH FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE PACIFIC
MOISTURE TAP IS REESTABLISHED CAUSING 7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY TO
JUMP TO 3.75 TO 4.0 G/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS SUCH...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL EVENT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH
LIFT NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS WITH THE PAST STORM. STILL...THE
GFS40 SUGGESTS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A 2 FEET OF SNOW IN THE
SAN JUANS AND TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR HEAVY SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILL AREAS AS WELL. ECMWF WAS SIMILAR...BUT SNOWFALL OUTPUT
NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...BUT THAT APPEARS MORE OF A BIAS THAN SOMETHING
THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN AT FACE VALUE. WAY TOO EARLY TO START
HOISTING WATCHES BUT CERTAINLY WARRANTS KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS EVOLVING WEEKEND STORM.

MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY SNOWFALL DECREASES MONDAY WITH ECMWF
A BIT QUICKER WINDING IT DOWN. A CONVEYER BELT OF WEAK SYSTEMS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT...OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WON/T CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AS
CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW ARE LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY UBIQUITOUS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE REMNANTS OF THE STORM WHICH DUMPED HEAVY SNOW OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
THIS WEEK WAS SPINNING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD...
MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO LATE IN THE DAY. UNTIL THIS
OCCURS...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AIRFIELDS SOUTH OF
THE ABAJO AND LA SAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH 19Z. THEREFORE...KBDG...
KCEZ...KDRO AND KPSO CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN
SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT FOR
AIRPORTS SOUTH OF A KU64 TO KAIB TO KAJZ TO KGUC LINE THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN AND
ABAJO MOUNTAINS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
NORM.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DOMINATE REGIONWIDE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z/WED. DEVELOPING SNOW WILL RESULT IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF COLORADO. THERE IS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT KHDN OR KSBS COULD SEE BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AT KCAG...KEEO...KEGE...AND KASE LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
HERE...SUPERSATURATED AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF FOG RESULTING POSSIBLY YIELDING MVFR/IFR VSBY AND CIGS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



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