Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 190844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
244 AM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 231 AM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

KGJX Doppler Radar continues to show some echos over Eagle and
Pitkin counties this morning as a cold front slowly moves out of
the forecast area. These echos are resulting in some light snow
fall over the Flat Tops and Elk Mountains. The front is moving
quickly so expect this light snow to end by sunrise. The current
satellite water vapor image is showing some dry air filling in
behind the front while a ridge of high pressure is developing over
the west coast.

The 0000Z GFS20 and ECMWF have initialized well with the current
synoptic weather pattern and remain in good agreement through the
weekend. Both models are showing this mornings cold front quickly
exiting the area with upper level high pressure building in
behind it along with cold dry northerly flow at the surface. This
will result in mostly sunny skies at most locations today. Clear
skies tonight combined with the cold dry airmass will allow for
widespread freezing temperatures tonight into Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A large and broad ridge will then build across the western states
to end the week...moving eastward early next week as the next
trough digs along the left coast. Warm and dry conditions set up
during this period with high pushing back above normal. Breezy
southwest conditions return with the ridge pushing east on Monday
with some moisture being picked up in the flow. Showers look to
stay in the forecast through mid-week in the pattern with high
snow levels as cold air is cut off well to north.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1155 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

The upper trough moving eastward across the area will continue to
produce showers through about 14Z across northwest and portions of
w-central Colorado with snow level near 7000 ft MSL. Expect areas
of MVFR and local IFR ceilings and visibilities in snow showers.
Mostly clear skies will persist across eastern UT and southwest
CO, while a dry northwest flow will follow the upper trough and
persist across the area through the remainder of the day.




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