


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
624 FXUS65 KGJT 290342 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 942 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm temperatures remain in place through early next week. - Afternoon storm chances return to the high terrain tomorrow with coverage increasing as the week progresses. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 157 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Warm and dry conditions will continue through the weekend as high pressure builds. Once again, observations are showing relative humidity values in the single digits for some areas, and these values will continue to drop as we warm through the afternoon. Relative humidity tomorrow looks to be slightly higher than today, particularly in the northern half of our CWA, as moisture begins to make its way into our area. With the dry air in place, localized red flag conditions are possible today where gusts exceed 25 mph, which looks to be most likely near the Four Corners region. Above average temperatures are expected through the weekend, with a slight increase in temperature between today and tomorrow. Weak moisture advection is providing moderately elevated PWAT values to the Uinta Mountains. The moisture there this weekend is not substantial, but CAMs do show precipitation in the Uinta Mountains this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. As such, afternoon PoPs are elevated in the Uintas through the weekend. Satellite and radar imagery shows precipitation has begun in the region this afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 157 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 High pressure will still be overhead Monday as a deep area of low pressure spins off the California Coast. Models have been fairly consistent in this regard. During the day Monday, PWATs slowly increase across the area and with this increased moisture, chances (30 to 40%) also increase for a few showers or storms to form, mainly along the Continental Divide. The low pressure will drift eastward some on Tuesday, just enough to start advecting some deeper moisture into the region under broad southwesterly flow. PWATs by Tuesday afternoon/evening will reach anywhere from 150 to 170% of normal early July values. As of now, the best chances (still 30 to 40%) exist over the San Juans for showers and storms. By Wednesday, the low opens up and becomes an upper level trough. Minor pieces of energy will also be rotating up from the south. PWATs Wednesday afternoon will reach 200% of normal and as these 2 features interact with the moisture, an increase in showers and storms is anticipated. The deterministic GFS and EC are on board with this scenario while the NBM is still not as aggressive. Not surprised as there is still plenty of time to nail down the specifics. That being said, the trough pushes through on Thursday bringing another round of precipitation to the eastern UT and the Western Slope. PWATs remain well above normal at 200% but it appears the deepest moisture may shift to the central and northern portions of the CWA. A rather weak, transitory ridge then builds in for Friday and Saturday. Some lingering moisture will allow some convection to fire in the afternoon and evening and we`ll be back to the Divide for favored locations. As mentioned, some discrepancies remain with this forecast but confidence does continue to increase for a period of unsettled weather for midweek. Temperatures through Tuesday will remain above normal and then drop to near normal Wednesday onwards thanks to increased cloud cover and precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 938 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Some leftover cloud cover on the terrain will continue to thin and winds will subside back to light and terrain influenced for the overnight hours. VFR conditions are expected to hold on across the region through this TAF period thanks to the ample dry air and additional high pressure building back overhead Sunday. Winds will run west to northwest Sunday afternoon with some afternoon gusts to around 20 mph. Clouds will sprout on the terrain. A non zero precipitation chance will continue on the terrain of northeast Utah and northwest Colorado Sunday afternoon. Showers will drift off terrain and quickly dissipate, with gusty outflow winds the main concern for airfields in adjacent valleys. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GF LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...TGJT