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000
FXUS65 KGJT 290443
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1043 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONVECTION FIRED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THAT COVERED SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UTAH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. NOW THAT THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATED...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO FIRE WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND STORMS WILL
ADVECT NORTH FROM NEW MEXICO AND AZ...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING NORTH WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE
RIDGE. BELIEVE FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM THIS
EVENING/S STORMS...WITH 1 INCH PLUS PW STILL IN PLACE IN MANY
AREAS AND SATURATION SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION
OVER SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UTAH TO PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
05Z THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT BELIEVE THE RESIDUAL STORMS WILL
DIMINISH TO MONSOON-TYPE NIGHTTIME RAINERS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT APPEAR MORE INTERESTING. THE MOISTURE
AXIS RIDING NORTH ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE TEXAS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SLIDE NORTH AND A BIT EAST. HIGH PW AND CAPE AREA PROJECTED
OVER CENTRAL AND NW CO AND NE UTAH. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCLUDING UT PUBLIC ZONES 22
AND 29 AND CO ZONE 21.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RIDGE TEMPORARILY DEFLATED ON WEDNESDAY BY PASSAGE OF THE SHEARING
SHORTWAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL NEAR 1 INCH ON WED AND RESULTANT
300 MB DEFORMATION AXIS ROUGHLY FROM NW CO TO SE CO SHOULD SERVE A
FOCUS FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL CO MTNS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/
STORMS ELSEWHERE...WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN SE UT.

RIDGE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST THU-SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL AS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
MONSOONAL PLUME DISRUPTED. RESIDUAL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WILL GET
RECYCLED THROUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME HINT OF A WEAK WAVE BRUSHING THE NORTH
ABOUT FRIDAY...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MODELS FLOAT RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE EAST SUN-MON...WHICH WOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES TO ROTATE BACK
INTO OUR AREA. WILL BEGIN TO TREND POPS BACK UP BY MONDAY AS RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING CONTINUE THIS EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE
DROPPING VSBY DOWN TO 2 MILES AT TIMES. AT THIS TIME ONLY LOOKS
LIKE KMTJ WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AS RADAR INDICATING HEAVIER
SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THAT TAF SITE. REMAINING SITES WILL SEE
MID LEVEL CIGS WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A QUICK SHOWER THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER DAY OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS BEING THE CONCERN. HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL DROP FLT
CATEGORIES TO IFR AT TIMES WITH ALL TAF SITES UNDER THE GUN.
CONVECTION WILL START AROUND 17 TO 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN
THE MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SW CO AND SE
UTAH...AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND NW
CO AND NE UTAH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ001>014-017>020-022-023.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ006-009-011-
     012-014-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ023>025-027-028.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR
HYDROLOGY...CC