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000
FXUS65 KGJT 241128
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
528 AM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 314 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

The current satellite water vapor image continues to show a strong
storm system centered over Southwestern Wyoming this morning. This
storm system is still supporting showers over portions of Eastern
Utah and Western Colorado. The current IR satellite image is
showing enhanced cloud activity entering Eastern Utah and
Northwestern Colorado as a portion of the jet stream begins to
pass over the area.

The 0000Z runs of the NAM12, GFS20 and ECMWF have initialized well
with this storm system and slowly slide it to the east northeast
today with the center reaching Southwestern North Dakota by this
evening. High pressure will then begin to build in over the Great
Basin and Rocky Mountain states on Sunday.

In the meantime the lingering storm system will provide showers
across the area this morning with potential thunderstorms this
afternoon as the low ejects to the northeast. Cold air filling
into the area has also lowered snow levels down to between 8000
and 9000 feet which will support high elevation snow. An early
season Winter Weather Advisory is in place for portions of
Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado through this morning.
Additionally, today will be chilly with afternoon high
temperatures only reaching into the mid 60s to lower 70s in the
valleys and low to mid 40s in the mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Dry weather is expected to return to the forecast area Sunday and
Monday. The storm which brought wind, heavy rain, and mountain
snow splits Saturday night with the bulk of the energy moving to
the northeast. However, a portion of the jet digs southward
carving out a closed low over central New Mexico. The moisture
wrapped system to the south will retrograde west-southwestward
across northern Mexico to the Gulf of California by Monday
evening. During this period, a dry northeast flow Sunday will
give way to dry easterlies on Monday. Forecast highs Sunday will
remain below average, though temperate in the valleys with cool,
crisp fall conditions in the mountains. Continued sunshine on
Monday will bring afternoon temperatures back to near normal
levels.

From Monday night into Tuesday the closed low will move from the
northern Baja region to southwest Arizona. Models indicated a
weak lobe of vorticity moving northward along the eastern edge of
the low could bring some light showers to the San Juan Mountains
during the afternoon/early evening. Chances improve Tuesday and
Tuesday night as the low lifts across Arizona and becomes
entrained in the prevailing continental flow. Confidence is very
good up to this point as both the ECMWF and GFS were in solid
agreement. However, Thursday`s weather is less clear as the GFS
becomes more progressive and dryer, in stark contrast to the ECMWF
which indicated showery and cool conditions will persist. Given
model differences am forced to accept the blended solution which
features a little of both. By Friday however, both models were
back in agreement over eastern Utah and western Colorado with
moisture in southwest flow feeding localized moist convection
during the afternoon. Except for some cooling Wednesday resulting
from cloudy/showery conditions in response to the passage of the
low, temperatures are expected to hover right around normal for
the last days of September.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 524 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

A strong storm system remains centered over southern Wyoming this
morning, supporting showers from roughly Montrose and north.
Expect light rain to transition to showers later this morning in
the Vernal area. Less active weather is expected in southern
portions of the forecast area with Canyon lands and Durango
expected to have fair weather all day.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MDT this morning for COZ004-
     013.

UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Larry
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...Larry