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000
FXUS65 KGJT 021705
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1005 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

UPDATED TO ADD AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE GUNNISON BASIN AND
PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS FROM KDRO TO KPSO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP AND
CLOUD COVER CONTINUING FOR THE SAN JUANS DOWN INTO PAGOSA SPRINGS
WHILE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE POISED TO SEE SOME
CLEARING VERY SHORTLY. WHILE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO HAVE ENDED SO CANCELLED THE ADVISORY AND
WARNINGS FOR THOSE AREAS. WILL KEEP HIGHLIGHTS GOING FOR SAN
JUANS AND PAGOSA SPRINGS AREAS THOUGH MODELS AND SATELLITE ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD END AROUND NOON. EXPECT SKIES TO
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IS CAPTURED WELL IN
CURRENT FORECAST SO NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

THIS SECOND STORM TURNED INTO A TWO-PARTER WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY
SLOT IN BETWEEN ON SATURDAY. THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS (THE SECOND
PART) WAS NOW WORKING ACROSS AZ EARLY THIS MORNING AND GENERATING
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SW CO UP INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS. RE-ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA UNTIL NOON FOR
2-4 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW. CURRENT SNOWFALL IN MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW PLUS RAP13 MODEL SHOWING A SMALL SURFACE LOW CIRCULATION IN THE
WIND FIELD LIFTING NE ACROSS WESTERN ARCHULETA COUNTY LED TO THAT
DECISION. LOOKED LIKE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR DURANGO/SRN LA PLATA
COUNTY WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND FREEZING SO LEFT THAT AREA OUT. A
WEAK WAVE RIDING ALONG A STATIONARY COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WY WAS KEEPING
CLOUDS AND LIKELY ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.

BOTH LINEAR INTERPOLATION FROM SATELLITE LOOPS AND THE MODELS
ESTIMATE THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING SWRN CO BETWEEN 15Z-19Z THIS
MORNING. BEST Q-G UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY REMAINS ACROSS AZ AND
NM HOWEVER. SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A RATHER
SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE CLOUDS/PRECIP BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS.
MODELS SHOW RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING ALOFT BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL...ALSO POINTING TOWARD A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES.
DAY SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS EARLY AND
HAVE SKEWED THE POP GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THAT
DIRECTION. BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY HIGHLIGHT CHANGES WITH
CDOT WEBCAMS AND GRAND JCT RADAR STILL INDICATING SOME SNOW OVER
THE HIGH COUNTRY.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK AND RATHER
ILL-DEFINED EMBEDDED WAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH
ON MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BRING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION WITH RATHER SHALLOW WAVES CAUSING SOME PRECIP FROM TIME TO
TIME. THE FIRST WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH BEST MOISTURE STAYING TO THE N...LIGHT AMTS
OF PRECIP EXPECTED ALONG THE DIVIDE.

A STRONGER WAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND NRN UTAH TUESDAY
EVENING AND THROUGH WRN COLORADO EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY
MOVING TO THE PLAINS THOUGH SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER
THE HIGH COUNTRY. THIS WAVE DOES MANAGE TO TAP INTO SOME MOISTURE
INCREASING PRECIP AMTS WITH GFS FAVORING THE NRN...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT...CENT MTNS OVERNIGHT. SNOW AMTS LOOK RATHER IMPRESSIVE BUT
WITH SUCH A QUICK MOVING WAVE...BELIEVE AMTS OVERDONE BUT WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

BY NOON THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEFORE QUICKLY BREAKING
DOWN AS ANOTHER WAVE TAKES AIM AT OUR CWA. THIS WAVE TAKES ALMOST
EXACT SAME TRACK AS WEDNESDAYS WITH SIMILAR PRECIP CHARACTERISTICS
TO INCLUDE LOCATION AND AMTS...THAT BEING MAINLY NRN AND CENT MTNS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE PREVIOUS WAVES SHOW SOME WEAK
CAA...THIS WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE MORE SUPPORT AND COULD SAY AN
ASSOD SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE SPINE OF THE
ROCKIES BRINGING LGT PRECIP TO THE DIVIDE YET AGAIN. BY
SATURDAY...HGT RISES INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH
PLENTY OF SUN AND WARM TEMPS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

LOW TO MID CIGS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH KRIL...KMTJ...KTEX...AND KDRO BREAKING OUT
FROM AROUND 18 TO 20Z.  ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
END AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING COZ018-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY COZ023.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT