Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 152235
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
335 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

ONE SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING
WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK IN LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
SHRTWV RIDGING NOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH BETWEEN 0300 AND 0600
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BRING SUB-
ADVISORY AMOUNT SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ANTICIPATED.
SOME SHOWERS SNEAK INTO THE SAN JUANS AS WELL...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT. THIS WAVE DEPARTS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER SURGE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEST COAST TROUGH EVENTUALLY MOVES INLAND
AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ABOUT THU. THE PREFERRED
NAM AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROUGH SPLITTING AND HANGING BACK MORE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT BASIN WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY
TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS APPEARED FASTER AND A LITTLE
MORE CONSOLIDATED. A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE SRN
MTNS WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE LEAST CHANCE IN NE UT/NW CO.
HOWEVER...NAM (AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF) SHOWS A PERIOD OF LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AGAIN AS IT FORECAST
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 700 MB LOW CIRCULATION. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN
LATER RUNS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW PER MODEL DIFFERENCES TO LATCH ON
THIS FEATURE RIGHT NOW IN THE POPS GRIDS.

FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BEHIND THE TROUGH...THOUGH NW FLOW COULD
KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS. ANOTHER PACIFIC WAVE
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS TIME COMING IN MORE FROM
THE NORTHWEST THEN THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS LOW
AT THE MOMENT DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTIES. DRIER WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 20Z...BEFORE IMPROVING WEATHER ARRIVES UNDER
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE. TERMINAL SITES THAT WILL BE MOST
IMPACTED BY THIS CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE KHDN...KSBS
AND KHDN. KEGE AND KASE WILL SEE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 20Z...THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DROP EACH HOUR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC


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