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000
FXUS65 KGJT 310742
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1242 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE UINTAH BASIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. A CALL TO VERNAL DISPATCH VERIFIES THAT THE FOG IS QUITE
WIDESPREAD. AS A RESULT HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE BASIN UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAIN WILL KEEP THE SURFACE LEVEL SATURATED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH ASPEN AND
EAGLE NOW REPORTING LIGHT SNOW. DURANGO AIRPORT HAS JUST SWITCHED
OVER TO RAIN WHILE SNOW IS ONGOING FOR THE HESPERUS AREA AND
PAGOSA SPRINGS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE HOVERED NEAR FREEZING
ALL DAY AND THIS HAS BORNE OUT WITH SNOW SHOWING ON WEBCAMS BUT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVEMENTS AND ROADS ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...GO UP IN ELEVATION A FEW HUNDRED
FEET AND ROADS ARE EITHER SLUSHY OR SNOW-PACKED. A TRICKY STORM TO
SAY THE LEAST. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRYING DOWN SOUTH
BEFORE THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT
3 TO 6 HOURS. AFTER THAT...MODELS SHOW A VERY MODEST AREA OF MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE 4 CORNERS AT DAYBREAK LIFTING TO THE NE
THROUGH THE DAY AND AS THIS OCCURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  THESE FEATURES BECOME THE FOCUS OF
PRECIP WHICH SHIFTS TO THE GRAND MESA AND NRN/CENT MTNS AND THE
SAN JUANS TO A LESSER EXTENT...BUT AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AS MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE SAN JUANS. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURES
THIS WELL SO NO CHANGES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

ONGOING MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA IS CREATING FORECASTING
CHALLENGES TODAY. DESPITE FREEZING OR ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AND
DWPTS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...SNOW CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE ON
NON-ROAD SURFACES AT PAGOSA SPRINGS AND THE DURANGO AREA. STARTING
TO SEE ROAD ACCUMULATIONS ON THE WEBCAMS AT PAGOSA AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS NEAR DURANGO DESPITE WARMING TEMPS...SO CONSIDERING
TEMPERATURES IN ALL GUIDANCE WILL BE COOLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT WE DECIDED TO ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR ABOVE 6500 FEET TO
INCLUDE THESE SOUTHERN VALLEYS ON IMPACT BASED CRITERIA. EXPECTING
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THESE AREAS AND ROADS DETERIORATING
AS TEMPERATURES COOL TONIGHT. SNOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO ACCUMULATE IN
THE MOUNTAINS AT SNOTELS TODAY...THOUGH SWES ARE BEGINNING TO
PICK UP AFTER A LULL THIS MORNING. THE MOUNTAIN ADVISORIES LOOK ON
TRACK...SO NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE PREVIOUS HAZARDS.
GUNNISON IS AN AREA OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WET SNOW
CONTINUING TO FALL INTERMITTENTLY THERE...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL FALL AND CREATE IMPACTS THERE
TONIGHT.

A DRY SLOT IN NEW MEXICO WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO SW COLORADO
LATER THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE
SHOWERY. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION
TO REACH THE FOUR CORNERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ANOTHER SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION TO HEAD NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT GRADUALLY MOVES EAST TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL CHANGE TO NORTHERLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT WITH
STABLE AIR MOVING IN...MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT BY SATURDAY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AS THE CURRENT UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SINK SOUTH ALONG MEXICO`S WEST COAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO
REBUILD OVER THE FAR WEST. A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF WRN
CANADA SKIMS BY NE CO AS IT DROPS INTO THE PLAINS. IT MAY TRIGGER
A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELKHEAD AND PARK MTNS ON
SUNDAY...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXTENT OF ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE SUNDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST NEXT
WEEK...WITH A LITTLE LESS AMPLITUDE EARLY ON AND THEN PERHAPS A
SLIGHT SHIFT EASTWARD LATE. ANY COLD AIR INCURSION LOOKS UNLIKELY IN
THIS PATTERN...WITH TEMPS REMAINING SEASONABLE OR WARMER. PACIFIC
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY TOP THE RIDGE AND KEEP A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION PRESENT FOR THE NRN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL MTNS
AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A BREAK ON
THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MOST TAF SITES. SNOW AND RAINFALL WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH...KEEPING
LOW FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. ALL MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HAVING SAID
THAT...SOME LULLS IN PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...AND AS THIS OCCURS FOG MAY THEN CAUSE LOW CIGS/VIS.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW FROM THE NW. BY
SATURDAY EVENING PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED OVER THE MOST OF
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. BUT AREAS OF SNOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN COLORADO VALLEYS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ021>023.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ028.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR UTZ024.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...EH