Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 161734

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1134 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 407 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Shortwave passes through the northern and central Rockies today
with a weak surface front pushing across our forecast area. This
will swing winds aloft around to the the west-northwest by mid-
morning and through this afternoon. This allows slightly cooler
conditions to sag through the northern zones, knocking a few
degrees off max temps today. Not seeing a ton of reflection at
the surface with winds running around the diurnal clock today,
although some gustiness expected during peak heating. Winds aloft
will be strengthening with evidence of wave clouds in satellite
imagery to our west, promising for a bumpy ride for those flying
through the region. Cooling today will be most pronounced along
the Wyoming/Colorado border where we could see 5 to 6 degrees
knocked of max temps compared to yesterday, while persistence
favors the southern zones. Expect a few more records to be tied or
broken today over the southern half of the forecast area. Mild
temps anticipated tonight with an increase in cloud cover before
the ridge pumps back up on Friday allowing temps to start climbing
back to record levels over the entire forecast area as we head
into the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 407 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

High pressure building over the region will bring mostly clear
skies and well above normal high temperatures into the weekend,
potentially setting some record highs again on Saturday. High
pressure looks to breakdown Saturday night as a disturbance to
our north brushes northern Utah and Colorado. This weather system
is the first possibility of accumulating precipitation, most
likely on Monday, and will likely stay north of the San Juans. A
much larger trough will pump moisture in from the southwest and
looks to hold together for an arrival around next Wednesday. This
system will increase the general winds on Tuesday and bring much
colder air and moisture to eastern Utah and western Colorado on
Wednesday. This will include mountain snow for a fresh layer at
high elevations. There are major differences on the temperatures
aloft with this trough/cold front next Wednesday, so the rain/snow
line will have to be diagnosed at a later time when better model
agreement comes into play. Cooler and unsettled weather will
remain in place for the latter half of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

A upper level trough will continue to work through the region this
afternoon, shifting winds to the northwest. This will result in
some mid and high-level clouds streaming across the area and also
periods of gusty winds this afternoon...mainly between 20Z-02Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites.


Issued at 407 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Increasing surface winds combined with near record high
temperatures and low humidity values may result in heightened
fire weather this weekend. The potential will be greatest on
Sunday at and below 8000 feet.


Issued at 407 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Very warm temperatures are expected across much of eastern Utah
and western Colorado through this weekend. This will accelerate
snowmelt resulting in increased flows on area waterways and slow
but steady rises in river levels. Temperatures are expected to
cool early next week, which will help to slow the snowmelt.




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