Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 272141
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
341 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 212 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

In spite of a transient ridge of high pressure moving over the
area today...temperatures aloft have remained on the cool side.
With some warming in the lower levels instability has
increased...aided by daytime heating. This combined with
lingering moisture has resulted in isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms in the valleys...with better coverage in the
mountains. Some of these storms may produce small hail and gusty
outflow winds. Once daytime heating wanes...expect this activity
will taper off through the evening...with little activity beyond
midnight. Nighttime temperatures will remain cool...a little below
normal for late May.

The next low pressure system will develop along the California
coast on Sat. Another weak ridge will develop upstream of this
low across our area into the Great Basin. Northern branch energy
will help suppress this ridge...with a relatively flat flow.
Enough moisture will remain entrenched over the region for
another round of late day showers and thunderstorms...but possibly
with a little less coverage. Again look for a downturn through the
evening with little activity beyond midnight.

Highs will warm on Sat...but will remain a little below normal.
Nighttime lows Sat night will be near normal.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

The western low moves over southern California on Sun then
approaches the forecast area on Mon. As a result...the southwest
flow will persist. But this flow is not expected to be overly
strong as this slow moving wave nears. Moisture will remain
sufficient for a chance of late day convection each afternoon.
The southern wave will phase with a northern branch trough which
will pass over the area on Tue. Look for increased winds and a
better chance of showers and thunderstorms.

A more substantial ridge of high pressure will build over the west
for the remainder of the week. This will result in drier and
warmer conditions with highs possibly topping normal values by the
end of the work week. Scant moisture will keep a few afternoon
showers/thunderstorms possible over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Expect low stratus resulting in MVFR CIGS over KTEX to lift by, or
shortly after 18Z. Elsewhere, the period will begin with VFR
conditions, though latest KGJX radar showed small shower cells
already developing over the higher terrain. As temperatures
continue to warm toward afternoon highs, shower/thunderstorm
activity will increase in coverage and intensity. This activity
will result in localized mountain obscuration and outflow winds to
35-45 MPH. A few cells may impact airports from 20Z through
02Z/Sat resulting in brief MVFR CIGS and CIGS below ILS
breakpoints. Showers and thunderstorms diminish during the night
with VFR conditions returning region wide.


&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for COZ007-009.

UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL



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