Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 231729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1129 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Energy rotating around upper-level low centered off the coast of
the Pacific Northwest is expected to deepen the longwave trough
to its south and carry its axis toward land. In response, flow
aloft over the forecast area will shift more to the southwest.
Cirrus moving out ahead of the West Coast trough now over the
northeast Utah and northwest Colorado will overspread the
remainder of the forecast area during the day. However, filtered
sunshine and the dry, mild airmass over the area will result in
another unseasonably mild fall day.

A surge of subtropical moisture begins to push across western Utah
into northeast Utah during the night as sheared vorticity rotates
northeastward from the base of the trough. Models suggest lift and
moisture sufficient to generate scattered showers over the eastern
Uinta Mountains later tonight. The uptick in clouds and moisture
should result in more moderate overnight lows.

Moisture continues to increase Monday as the longwave trough off
the west coast continues pushing eastward toward land. High based
moisture and modest dynamic lift suggests best chances for
precipitation over the higher terrain since instability will play
a significant role in generating showers. Increased clouds and
diabatic cooling associated with showers will result in cooler
temperatures, but readings should remain above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

As the trough system described in the Short Term discussion moves
east precipitation should spread across the entire forecast area
late Monday night. Have increased the chance of rain across the
board Monday night and Tue.

The trough is projected to move out of the area quickly Tuesday
afternoon. Right now it looks like late Monday night and Tuesday
morning provide the best chance of precipitation across much of
the area. Tuesday night a broad ridge will build over the area
with NW winds aloft and drier conditions.

High pressure will dominate Wednesday through Thursday night.
Friday another shortwave trough will ride over the area affecting
mainly the northern half of the forecast area. Saturday will see
drier conditions under high pressure.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Increasing high cloudiness will create cigs aoa 120kft agl through
the next 24 hours with VFR dominating the forecast TAFs. Gusty
winds at ridgetop level could create a bit of bumpiness but
otherwise should not play a major role at area airports.




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