Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 242111
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
311 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 311 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016

The moderate southwest flow over the Four Corners will slowly
diffuse over the next few days. A large amplitude trough is slowly
making its way across the western US.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016

A closed low part of this system will move over the Four Corners on
Thursday bringing a more concentrated piece of energy to the region.
Moisture will increase slightly on Thursday, which will team up with
the unstable closed low airmass to produce moderate to high coverage
of showers and thunderstorms across eastern Utah and western
Colorado. Convective indices are supportive of scattered
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, but there is very
little divergence aloft with no jet support. Will expect slow
moving storms Thursday because of this. Friday still looks
unstable in the afternoon as the closed low moves to the Front
Range.

Moisture will remain elevated (3+ g/kg spec humidity) through the
weekend and the western US will remain in a troughy unstable
regime. Temperatures will remain near or a few degrees below
normal due to the enhanced cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1057 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Mid and high level cloud cover at or above 120kft agl is keeping
VFR conditions in place at forecast terminals late this morning.
This flight level rule will persist over the next 24 hours.
Afternoon instability will lead to another round of isolated
thunderstorm development through sunset. Probabilities of a storm
impacting the TAF sites is too low to place in forecast attm.
General wind gusts exceeding 25 mph will also be possible through
the mid to late afternoon hours which could enhance outflow winds
from thunderstorms with gusts reaching up to 50 mph near some
storms.


&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT



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