Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 290446
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

PWATS HAVE RISEN A LITTLE THIS MORNING AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING
NOW WORKING ON DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAVE FIRED. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH 3PM AND PERSIST
THROUGH 9PM OR SO BEFORE DYING DOWN AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS. AS
ANTICIPATED...COVERAGE IS A LITTLE GREATER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
MORE CELLS FIRING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL INDICATOR...CAPE...SHORT-RANGE MODELS ALL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE SAN JUANS FOR CONVECTION AND THIS LOOKS TO HOLD TRUE
WITH RADAR SHOWING INCREASING BUILD-UPS THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
CONVECTION DIES DOWN...A QUITE NIGHT IS IN STORE AS CLOUDS
DISSIPATE.

ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AREA...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER UT. LOOK FOR
A WEAK UPTICK IN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WORK IN UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS WITH MOST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE UNDER THE RIDGE
THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS. A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL LAY OVER
SOMEWHAT STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TYPICALLY THIS FLOW WOULD BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE FORECAST
AREA...AND THE 12Z GFS DOES HINT AT THIS HAPPENING BY NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DAY TO-DAY MOISTURE
FLUCTUATIONS REMAIN SUBTLE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THEREFORE
DAILY DIFFERENCES IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE LARGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
CONTINUE PROVIDING FUEL FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW WINDS...THERE IS LESS THAN A 10%
CHANCE THESE STORMS WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT AIRPORTS WITHIN THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRO AND KPSO WHICH
FACE A 30 TO 40 PERCENT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSHOWERS BETWEEN 1400
AND 0200.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC


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