Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 281636
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1036 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

ASCENT IS INCREASING ALONG WITH INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
CWA LATE THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT STORMS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
FIRE AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LAPS TRENDS SUGGEST A STALLED BOUNDARY
LAYING FROM THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS ACROSS CENTRAL MOFFAT
COUNTY WHICH SHOULD BE FOCUS FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS AND WILL BE
MONITORING THIS AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH SE ID...W WY AND N UT TODAY
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVER NORTHEAST UT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN LINGER OVER WESTERN CO THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE
UPPER CIRCULATION TO OUR NORTH...OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SIT UNDER
A TIGHTER GRADIENT WITH SOME JET SUPPORT DEVELOPING FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS UPPER JET ALSO COINCIDES WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE BEST
FORCING WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
I-70. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
BUT SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

LOOK FOR A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY
AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST FOR A ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION DUE TO DIURNAL AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN UT AND FAR SOUTHWEST
CO WILL BE THE DRIEST...WITH THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA THE WETTEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

BY EARLY FRI EVENING THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND
ITS SURFACE FRONT WILL BE PLUNGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. RIDGING
WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA KEEPING PRECIPITATION CLOSE TO THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE DRAPED DOWN THE FRONT RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ALONG AND EAST ON THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NEXT
WEEK WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.

THE NEXT TROUGH THE AFFECT THE AREA WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA
TUE AND CONTINUE ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH WED. SW WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE BOTH DAYS AND EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO SHOULD
BE UNDER THE DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

INSTABILITY ALONG RIDGE TOPS ALLOWING LATE MORNING CLOUDS TO FORM.
THE FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN UTAH
AND COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT
THE FORECAST TERMINALS AND THIS TREND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. KVEL WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE NEW TAF
FORECAST WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE OTHER
TERMINAL SITES HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE DUE TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. THREATS INCLUDE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS ALONG WITH TEMPORARY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO PASSING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGJT



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