Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 281742
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1142 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

HAVE INCREASES POPS AND PRECIP AMTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
AS AN UPPER DIVERGENT AREA BLOSSOMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL CO AND
EXTREME EASTERN UT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM WAS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF MID CLOUD WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
SHOWERS THAT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVED
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THEN CENTRAL CO AND UT EARLY THIS MORNING.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION REGISTERING MAINLY AS A TRACE FELL AT A FEW
SITES IN SE UT AND SW AND CENTRAL CO. MOAB-CANYONLANDS SEEMED TO
RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIP AND RECEIVE MODERATE RAIN FOR ABOUT AN
HOUR...BUT NO RAINFALL MEASUREMENT WAS AVAILABLE DUE TO MECHANICAL
PROBLEMS WITH THE RAIN GAGE AT CANYONLANDS AIRPORT. SHORTRANGE
MODELS ARE OVER PREDICTING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE STORM...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE. HAVE KEPT AREAL
COVERAGE HIGH BUT DECREASED THE QPF A BIT. THE WARM SECTOR PRECIP
WILL GIVE WAY TO A PSEUDO-DRY SLOT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
BRING A BIT OF A LULL AND DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION. THEN AS THE
STORM CENTER MOVES ALONG THE CO AND NM BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...PRECIP SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN...INITIALLY OVER THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MOST MOUNTAINS ABOVE
9000 FEET CONTINUE INTO FRI EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

FRIDAY NIGHT THE LOW CENTER WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW AND NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS DOMINATING
PRECIPITATIONPRODUCTION AND LOCATION. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BECOME CAUGHT BENEATH A COL BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS DAYS` LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PLAINS AND A CLOSE LOW THAT DROPS INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE A BIT OF A
DOWNTURN IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE SECOND LOW WILL CONTINUE DRIVING SOUTH TO ARIZONA
SAT NIGHT AND BY SUNRISE SUNDAY PRECIP WILL INCREASE OVER SW CO
AND SE UTAH AS THIS UPPER LOW TREKS ACROSS AZ.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP GOING IN THE CO AND UT
MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE STORM FILLS AND SLIDES EAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A WARMER AND DRIER TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. EXPECT MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CIGS/VISY IN STRONGER SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7500 FEET
FREQUENTLY OBSCURING MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ004-009-010-
     012-013-017>019.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ023-028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...MPM


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