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329
FXUS65 KGJT 220915
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
315 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

The ridge over the SW U.S. has receded further to the southwest as
a shortwave and weak cold front drop down the front range of the
northern and central rockies. The excessive heat will continue, as
will the heat advisory over southwest and west-central Colorado
and southeast Utah. The passing trough will increase the pressure
gradient and resulting winds aloft and at the surface. The
stronger winds will combine with very hot temperatures and low
humidity to produce critical fire weather conditions over much of
eastern Utah and portions of west-central and southwest Colorado
this afternoon and evening. A modicum of moisture will accompany
the trough which should result in isolated high-based and dry
thunderstorms over mainly the northern half of the area.

The flow aloft will turn more northwesterly Friday with remnants
of the surface front stretching along the front range.
Temperatures will lower and winds will decrease, alleviating some
of the fire weather concerns.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

The dry NW flow aloft will continue through the weekend as the
ridge reestablishes over the Great Basin. Monday night and
Tuesday another weak trough will flatten the ridge causing west
winds to increase from Tuesday through Wednesday. There will be a
very slight chance of high-based thunderstorms again and fire
weather concerns will be elevated as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 247 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours at all TAF
sites. After 18z through about 03z high-based showers and
thunderstorms are again expected with gusty outflow winds being
the primary threat and little or no rain expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Fire Weather conditions are expected to exceed critical levels
for much of eastern Utah and southwest and west-central Colorado
this afternoon and evening. Some stronger winds aloft will move
by this morning. As mixing commences during the afternoon hours,
frequent gusts of 25 mph or more are expected in the areas
previously mentioned. Isolated dry lightning is possible again
this afternoon and early evening, with the with best chance over
the higher peaks along the Continental Divide. Precipitation
chances will drop to near 0 during the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 247 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

A flood advisory has been issued for the Roaring Fork River in
Aspen as snowmelt and tunnel closures upstream have caused the
river to reach bankfull. This advisory will run through Friday
evening.

A number of streams and creeks also continue to run strong, cold,
and high and will continue to do so through the week. Where water
is running high, river banks may become saturated and unstable.
Lowlands along the rivers may also become inundated with water.
Remember if you are going to raft, kayak or tube on the rivers be
sure to always wear a life jacket.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for
     COZ203-207-290-292.

     Heat Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ006.

UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for
     UTZ486-487-490-491.

     Heat Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ022-027-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...CC
HYDROLOGY...CC