Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 140552
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1052 PM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 317 PM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

Visible satellite imagery showing some high clouds over much of
the area while the Steamboat Springs/Northern Mountains have much
lower clouds thanks to favorable northwest flow. This flow is also
causing some orographic lift and while no snow can be seen on
webcams at the moment, a few showers/flurries are possible through
midnight. Forecast follows suit with slight chances for snow in
that area. A few clouds should persist overnight and will keep
overnight lows a few degrees warmer than seen this morning but
nothing too great.

Tomorrow, the deep trough over the east coast remains while a high
amplitude ridge remains over the west coast. The jet stream is
dropping down this ridge, moving over Montana, Wyoming, and the
high plains and will provide enough support for some showers over
that area. We will remain dry with only some clouds to contend
with along the Continental Divide. All in all, a nice day in
store.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

Another shot of energy will round the trough on Monday and looks
to bring some light precipitation to the Front Range. Previous
model runs also clipped our northern and central mountains with
some light precipitation though latest model runs are trending
away from that solution keeping us dry. Even so, kept slight
chances in forecast for the northern and central mountains but
this may need to be removed if models continue their downward
trend.

Monday and Tuesday will be in-between days as the ridging to our
west moves overhead. By Wednesday, models differ significantly.
The GFS wants to bring an area of low pressure over the area with
precipitation starting over eastern Utah early Wednesday morning
and reaching the Western Slope by daybreak. From daybreak through
sunset, the GFS is highlighting .25 to .50 inches of liquid
precipitation for most of our mountainous terrain. This would
equate to some decent snowfall while rain would stay in the
valleys. Unfortunately, the ECMWF also brings in this low pressure
but by the time it reaches us, very minimal precipitation is
expected. Will be very interesting to see which models wins out,
expect some sort of happy medium.

Another ridge for Thursday before the next system sets its sights
on our area. GFS showing a fairly significant cold front to drop
down from the northwest bringing much cooler temperatures to the
region with precip from Friday evening through midday Saturday.
This all needs to be taken with a grain of salt as models this far
out have a tendency to flip flop which we`ve seen A LOT of
recently. Keep your hopes up though...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1052 PM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

Low level clouds will remain across the northern and central
Colorado mountains and adjacent valleys through the morning before
slowly eroding thanks to dry air moving in aloft. Aside from that,
VFR conditions will prevail with light terrain-driven winds and
mostly clear skies.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...MDA



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