917
FXUS65 KGJT 111146
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
546 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry conditions continue with chances for afternoon
  showers and thunderstorms today and Saturday on terrain.

- Gusty outflows and dry lightning will continue to pose threats
  to wildfire management today and tomorrow.

- Hot and dry conditions persist into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 318 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A broad area of high pressure anchored over the Southwest will
continue to exert its influence on the region. This will mostly
manifest in the form of hot and dry conditions continuing in the
near term forecast. Temperatures in our low desert valleys will
hover around 100 degrees, with areas of southeast Utah creeping
toward 105 degrees today and Saturday. Afternoon winds relax enough
today and tomorrow to avoid widespread critical fire weather
conditions from developing. Afternoon wind gusts stick around 20 mph
across the region today. There will be some localized fire weather
concerns this afternoon around the Four Corners, but held off on
issuing any headlines due to the marginal wind conditions there.

Several active wildfires continue to burn and produce smoke. The
Gunnision Basin will continue to see wildfire smoke today, as well
as areas east of the La Sals along the state line and portions of
the Grand Valley. A disturbance well out of reach moving along the
Canadian border will drag a weak trough across the Rockies this
afternoon. A non zero shower and thunderstorm chance remains for our
terrain. Dry boundary layer conditions pose some risk for another
dry lightning event, albeit highly isolated in nature. Gusty outflow
winds will remain a threat too, with winds up to 50 mph possible
beneath collapsing showers and storms.

The high builds east Saturday, while some extra-tropical moisture
works northward up the Divide. This will increase shower and storm
chances on Saturday afternoon along the Divide and back east across
the San Juans and Central Mountains. Scarce moisture will make most
of these storms wind bags again...and problematic for wildfire
management.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Expect a series of dry, hot days with convection over the high
terrain each afternoon. Through the long term PWATs fluctuate
around normal. Any moisture advection through Thursday looks to
be weak and primarily focused along the Divide and over the San
Juans. The highest PoPs are in the San Juan mountains each
afternoon. After Sunday, differences in PWATs emerge between
ensembles, with the GFS Ens keeping more moisture in the region
than the ECMWF Ens, although both seem to suggest the
possibility for increased moisture advection towards the end of
the long term. The magnitude of the moisture advection will
depend on where high pressure sets up relative to our CWA, but
current forecasts suggest an increase in precipitation for our
southern mountains on Wednesday and Thursday.

Our CWA will remain hot and dry through the long term. Expect high
temperatures to be 5 to 10 degrees above average through
midweek. Minimum relative humidity values are generally
anticipated to fall below 15% for all but the highest terrain
over the weekend. As moisture increases mid next week so should
minimum relative humidity values, but only by a few percent.
Despite the low relative humidity in the forecast, critical fire
weather conditions are expected to be localized as wind gusts
should stay below thresholds for most areas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions will continue today with some wildfire smoke to
impact terminals downwind of fires as smoke spreads across the
region. Winds will mix up smoke mid morning and visibilities
will improve slightly. Skies remain mostly clear today with
isolated showers and/or thunderstorms possible on terrain.
Included PROB30 in KASE, KEGE, KGUC, and KHDN to account for
afternoon terrain based thunderstorms. Winds will gust to around
20 mph across the region Friday afternoon then subside near
sunset. Gusty outflow winds near collapsing showers/storms could
produce gusts in the vicinity of 50 mph.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT