Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 281720
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1020 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

A line of very heavy snow has developed over the eastern Paradox
valley and will impact the US 550 corridor from Montrose to Colona
over the next couple of hours. Visibility has dropped to one
quarter mile in heavy snow at MTJ airport and these conditions
will persist at least through noon if not through the early
afternoon. Decided to issue a short winter weather advisory for
this line so the visibility gets out there for quickly
deteriorating conditions. Snow has ended in eastern Utah and
extreme NW CO so did cancel these advisories a bit early.

UPDATE Issued at 905 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

Allowed winter weather advisories to expire in zones 2 and 5
(Craig to Steamboat corridor). The snow is ending across the
southwestern Colorado valleys, but still anticipating the
possibility of up to an inch of snow over the next couple of
hours and a convective shower or two this afternoon as well.

UPDATE Issued at 515 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

Thin band of heavier snowfall has dropped down to the I-70
corridor this morning bringing about an inch of snowfall to some
areas of the Grand Valley. Debated on issuing an advisory but once
the sun comes up, any snow will melt very quickly just leaving wet
roads. Also, many areas not showing any snowy roads whatsoever.
Decided on a Special Weather Statement to highlight these
conditions for the next hour or so. Will keep an eye on how this
band evolves and if snow keeps coming, may have to go with
advisory just the same. Upped pops for I-70 corridor. No other
changes at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

Plenty of snowfall is being reported across the forecast area this
morning from the northern mountains down to our southern valleys.
The cold front is currently along the I-70 corridor and is the
focus for some heavier snowfall and will need to be watched as
some snow is accumulating on I-70 near Loma and Mack and also
Debeque and areas east. Models are doing a pretty good job with
placement of the front and snowfall. All models highlight the
heaviest snowfall over the central mountains southward from now
through mid-morning so expect more accumulating snow for the next
several hours. Thickness values indicate the cold front will have
moved through just about our entire CWA by noon with the upper
level trough moving through a few hours later. Northwesterly flow
will keep some snowfall going over the Divide but this precip
looks to be more showery in nature. The current highlights look
good and will remain in place. Expect clouds to slowly start
lifting from the northwest to southeast with noticeable
improvement mid- afternoon onwards.

By daybreak Wednesday, all but a few showers will have ended as
flow becomes generally zonal in nature. Expect mostly sunny skies
except for the northern mountains where more clouds are expected.
High temperatures will run about 10 degrees below normal but this
will be short-lived as a warm-up begins on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

The long term period looks fairly benign as the jet stream sets up
to our north. The jet will keep any precipitation well to our
north during the period. We can expect plenty of sunshine with
some clouds from time to time, a bit more north. Temperatures will
slowly warmup through the period and once winds become
southwesterly on Saturday, expect high temperatures to reach a few
degrees above normal.  All in all, a nice 5 days coming up.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 240 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

Periods of MVFR and IFR will be common today for all TAF sites
except KVEL and KCNY as a cold front drops through the area
bringing snowfall and accompanying low ceilings and visibilities.
Conditions may improve slightly after 18Z but impacts will still
be felt for the aviation community. Noticeable improvements are
anticipated towards the evening hours as the cold front exits the
forecast area. Mountains will be obscured with some blowing snow
also possible at the highest elevations.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ009-
     010-017.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST tonight for COZ012-018-
     019.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ020-
     021.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ014.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for COZ011.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST today for COZ004-013.

     Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ022-
     023.

UT...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR



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