Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 200514

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1114 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A disturbance passing to the north of the area tonight is expected
to send a northerly surge into the southeast plains which may
produce some gusty winds for a little while. The NAM shows the
potential for some isold pcpn ovr northeast CO, but not quite
getting into the southeast quarter of the state. The main concern is
the possibility of low temps falling to around freezing ovr the
southeast plains. It looks like the I-25 corridor will see lows in
the upper 20s to around 30 if the winds drop off toward morning. The
rest of the southeast plains may see temps only drop into the lower
and mid 30s, as there may be enough wind to keep things mixed. Will
issue a freeze warning for the I-25 corridor, ern Fremont county and
eastern Las Animas county, and leave the rest of the plains out of
the highlight, although if the wind does die off toward morning,
there could be some areas of frost. The disturbance moves east of
the area for Thu and an upr ridge wl build into the state. Dry
weather is expected Thu, and winds should be relatively light.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Thursday night-Friday...Moderate to strong west to northwest flow
aloft across the region Thursday night moderates and becomes more
westerly through the day Friday, as an embedded short wave
translates across the Northern Tier of States and into the upper
Great Lakes. System remains too far north to bring anything but
breezy winds to the higher terrain and areas along and west of the I-
25 corridor Thursday night and Friday morning with a lee trough in
place. Winds to keep over night lows up west of the corridor, though
may need freeze highlights for portions of the eastern plains,
especially across the normal cold pockets of the lower Arkansas
River Valley. Lighter and more diurnal winds, along with warming
temperatures aloft will support another a beautiful fall day, with
highs warming back to at and above seasonal levels, in the upper 60s
to upper 70s across the lower elevations and mainly 50s and 60s
across the higher terrain.

Saturday-Sunday...Upper level ridging continues to be progged across
the region, keeping generally light winds and above seasonal
temperatures in place, with highs in the 70s and 80s across the
lower elevations and mainly 60s across the higher terrain, and lows
mainly in the 30s and 40s.

Monday-Wednesday....Southwest flow increases as a broad upper trough
digs into the Great Basin on Monday and across the Rockies on
Tuesday. This will support increasing chances of rain showers and
higher elevation snow showers Monday and Tuesday, with best chances
along and west of the ContDvd. Will also see increasing fire weather
concerns across the lower elevations Monday with increasing winds
ahead of the system. The Passing system sends a front across eastern
plains Tuesday, brining cooler temperatures but only slight chances
of precipitation to the plains. Drier conditions expected area wide
on Wednesday with more westerly flow aloft progged across the


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1114 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Generally VFR conditions are anticipated over the KALS...KCOS and
KPUB taf sites during the next 24 hours as basically dry
northwesterly upper flow impact the region.



Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Thursday for COZ083-085>088-


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