Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 280604
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1104 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

Updated forecast grids for expiration of the winter weather
highlights, and to incorporate latest obs data. Had to adjust wind
speeds and gusts upward a bit overnight, as winds have been
hesitant to wane. Moore

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

Generally improving meteorological conditions anticipated during the
near/short term with main issues being winds, qpf/snow amounts and
temperatures.

CWA currently experiencing continued gusty winds(as can be seen
recent wind gusts of 55 MPH at Monarch Pass and 52 MPH at La Veta
Pass respectively as well as many southeastern Colorado plains
locations noting wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range this
afternoon).  In addition, mostly sunny conditions noted over eastern
portions, while mostly cloudy skies prevail over western sections in
combination with mountain snow at times. Also, generally above
seasonal afternoon temperatures observed at eastern locations with
below seasonal afternoon temperatures occuring over western
sections.

Latest PV analysis, real-time data, computer simulations and
forecast model soundings suggest that conditions favorable for snow
at times to continue over the Continental Divide, especially over
the central mountains during the next 24 hours, with the highest
potential for snow anticipated until around midnight tonight and
then again by later Monday.

Due to the potential for a few additional inches of snow and gusty
winds into this evening, will allow existing winter weather
highlights to continue over western mountain locations.  Over the
remainder of the forecast district, have depicted basically dry
conditions in combination with decreasing winds into Monday morning
with some increase in wind speeds over many locations by later
Monday.

Generally above seasonal temperatures are expected to be noted over
eastern sections during the next 24 hours, while near to below
seasonal temperatures should prevail over western locations into
Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

...Colder Temperatures Ahead...

A large upper trough over the Rockies will keep a pool of cold air
over Colorado next week.  Starting Tuesday, temperatures will be
below average each day of the week through Saturday.  On Sunday,
they will just start to climb back toward average again.

Precipitation chances do not look real good for the lower elevations
through the period.  However, the mountains should continue to
see snowfall at times, especially along the Continental Divide.
The bulk of the precipitation through the period should come
primarily during 2 windows.  The first window will be Monday night
and Tuesday when a Pacific shortwave swings southeast through
Colorado. This disturbance should bring several inches of new snow
to the Continental Divide, with scattered light amounts to the
eastern mountain ranges.  It may even bring some flurries or spotty
light snow to parts of the I-25 corridor and plains on Tuesday as
the cold front with the system moves south through the area.

Wednesday looks pretty dry as a temporary ridge moves across the
state.  It will still be cold, however, with temperatures remaining
below average.

Thursday and Friday, a massive new system will dig south through the
western United States.  Unfortunately, it will remain too far west
of Colorado to be a major snowfall producer for the state. However,
it should spread a new round of snow showers into the mountain areas
lasting from Thursday afternoon through Friday. The latest medium
range forecast even suggests a few snow showers reaching as far east
as the I-25 corridor Thursday night and Friday. We will see.

By Saturday and Sunday, the storm system digs way far south into
Mexico, dragging the northern edge of the precipitation shield way
far south of Colorado.  So, the weekend is looking dry at this point
with temps still below average on Saturday but then moderating to
near average levels on Sunday.

It`s too early to be certain how the weekend storm will track. Some
runs have had it closer to Colorado. The European model continues to
have it passing closer to Colorado.  So, a guarantee of dry weather
for the weekend is just not possible at this time.  Keep checking
back.  We`ll try to keep up.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1026 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

KCOS and KPUB should have VFR conditions thru the next 24 hrs.
Breezy west to northwest winds are expected to continue at KPUB
and KCOS tonight through Monday, although there may be a lull in
the early morning for a few hours. KALS may see some low clouds
develop later tonight and into the early morning hours, otherwise
VFR conditions are expected. Breezy westerly winds are expected at
KALS from about the late morning hours through the afternoon.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28


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