Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 070533
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1033 PM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

...Cold with Areas of Light Snow...

An upper level disturbance is dropping south across Colorado this
afternoon.  Disturbance is pretty moisture-starved but because the
air in the precipitating layer is cold enough (-12 to -13C), it is
able to squeeze out a few snow showers.  Webcams around the Pikes
Peak Region have shown snow showers here and there, including up
US24 around Cascade and also up around Cripple Creek and Pikes Peak.
Cripple Creek cams were showing a bit of accumulation and there`s
been a dusting on top of Pikes Peak but no accumulation noted
elsewhere.  This disturbance will continue spreading areas of light
snow southward tonight, impacting the Sawatch Range,  Pikes Peak
Region, Wets, Sangres and adjacent areas.  Also, models show some
potential over the San Luis Valley and southwest mountains.  The
Wets and southern Sangres probably have the best accumulation
potential with 3 to 6 inches possible above 10,000 feet and 1 to 3
possible below.  The top of Pikes Peak could maybe see 1 to 3.  For
everyplace else, generally no accumulation is expected but there
could be some local light accumulations less than an inch under the
right snow band.

By morning, the current system should be just about all the way
south of Colorado.  This will bring a reprieve in the snowfall early
Thursday but then a new system will approach from the north during
the afternoon.  Once again, this system will have just enough
moisture for a few snow showers developing mainly in and near the
mountains in the afternoon.  Through 6 pm, those showers are only
expected to get as far south at the central mountains and Pikes Peak
Region.

Temperatures will remain colder than average for the next 24 hours.
Lows tonight and highs on Thursday will be very similar to those
over the past 24 hours.  A little more winter to withstand before we
warm up again.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

Thursday night-Friday...Strong northerly flow aloft across the
region Thursday night slowly diminishes from west to east through
the day Friday, as embedded jet core across the Rockies continues to
translate east into Upper Midwest and Northern High Plains. Latest
models continue to indicate enough moisture and lift associated with
the passing jet to support isolated to scattered snow showers to
areas over and near the central and eastern mountains, including the
Palmer Dvd and Raton Mesa, Thursday night into early Friday morning,
with any accumulations expected to be very light and spotty.
Latest models also remain consistent with a strong pressure
gradient developing on Friday, with gusty north to northwest winds
of 25 to 45 mph expected across the area through the day Friday,
strongest across the far southeast plains. Warming temperatures
aloft and mixing associated with the gusty winds will help
temperatures warm back to around seasonal levels on Friday. The
gusty winds, combined with dry conditions will bring elevated fire
danger across the eastern plains, however, humidity levels are
looking to stay above 15 percent, precluding any fire weather
highlights. Needless to say, however, care should be taken to
avoid any fire starts on Friday.

Saturday-Wednesday...No big changes in the ongoing long range
forecast, as Northerly flow aloft continues to weaken as Omega
blocking pattern breaks down and flat upper level ridging builds
into the region. Pattern suggests dry weather with temperatures
warming back to above seasonal levels in the 50s to lower 60s
across the lower elevations and mainly in the 30s and 40s across
the higher terrain through at least the weekend. Models continue
to hint of a possible backdoor front moving across the high
plains brining only slightly cooler temperatures to eastern
Colorado early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1021 PM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

KCOS and KPUB are expected to have VFR conditions the next 24 hrs.
Thu afternoon both locations will see gusty northerly winds with
gusts between 20 and 30 kts. Thu evening there could be a few
showers in the vicinity of KCOS and possibly near KPUB, however
chances of this occurring are too low to include in the forecast
at this time.

KALS could see some showers in the vicinity through about 09z
tonight, along with some gusty winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected. Northerly winds are expected on Thu with wind speeds
mostly under 12 kts, but the winds could increase a little in the
evening hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



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