Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 181750
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1150 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
CONSIDERING FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EL PASO/EASTERN TELLER COUNTIES
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  DETAILS ON THAT COMING OUT IN NEXT
COUPLE HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

...HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW LIKELY TONIGHT...

CURRENTLY...A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH NE CO...WITH NE
WINDS SPREADING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NM BORDER. ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE ERN MTS AND SURROUNDING
AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WETS AND RAMPARTS. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS MORNING.

NEXT BIG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CA AND WILL
TRACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD PRECIP SHIELD IN AN
AREA OF STRONG QG ASCENT E OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE ERN MTS BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT EWD ON THROUGH THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE I- 25 CORRIDOR AND THEN THE ERN PLAINS. HEAVE INCREASED
POPS THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT TO NR CATEGORICAL FOR THESE AREAS.
WIDESPREAD QPF OF .5 TO 1 INCH OR MORE WILL BE LIKELY BY MORNING.

INITIAL CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE
IN SPOTS. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPING
OVER THE RATON MESA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FLOODING
POTENTIAL. HEAVIEST QPF WILL LIKELY BE OVERNIGHT WHEN EMBEDDED
CELLS SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY INTENSE...SO FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED. MAIN CAVEAT WOULD BE IF CELLS TRAIN FROM
N TO S OVER A SMALLER AREA. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE BURN
SCARS...PARTICULARLY SPANISH PEAKS...AND WALD CANYON AREAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE QPF
MAXES...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY...AND WITH INCREASING S-SW FLOW
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEY MAY ACTUALLY RISE RATHER THAN FALL
WITH TIME. SO...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS BELOW
10000 FEET...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE HEAVIER PRECIP DRIVE DOWN SNOW
LEVELS LOCALLY. SINCE MUCH OF THE TELLER COUNTY AND NRN FREMONT
ZONES THAT WERE IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH ARE BELOW 10000
FEET...WILL CANCEL THOSE PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THESE AREAS COULD SEE SOME HEAVY SNOW...BUT
PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A WARNING ATTM. ON THE
OTHER HAND...PIKES PEAK AND THE OTHER MTN ZONES ABOVE 11000 FEET
COULD SEE BIG SNOW TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM...POSSIBLY A FOOT OR
MORE BY TUE MORNING. SO...HAVE CONVERTED THESE ZONES TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING. IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY ACTIVE AND DYNAMIC DAY OF WX
AHEAD...SO PLEASE PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

...HIGH IMPACT WEATHER CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW (TUESDAY)...

TUESDAY...

THE WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF QUITE
ACTIVE. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST AS TOMORROW MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH THE
ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE MAY SEE SOME
ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE (HAIL) CONVECTION EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. HOWEVER...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED SEVERE
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE CO/NM-OK BORDER BY
AFTERNOON AS 50+ DEWPOINTS ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITHIN A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. AT THIS TIME THE BEST THREAT OF SFC BASED
ROTATING CONVECTION WILL BE OVER E LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND BACA
COUNTY....WHILE AREAS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST MAY SEE ELEVATED
ROTATING CONVECTION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. IF SFC BASED
CONVECTION DEVELOPS...THEN WE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
TORNADO ACTIVITY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND VERY LOW
LCLS. ATTM...SPC HAS PARTS OF THE SE PLAINS IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
TUESDAY.

HPC HAS ALL OF SE COLO IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE BEST THREAT WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
AND POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS.
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY DECREASING
LATER IN THE MORNING.

FOR WED AND THU...

WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MARGINAL SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE WILL ALLOW FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION TO FIRE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...

ANOTHER PACIFIC WX SYSTEM COMING IN ON THE SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. ALL MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE...ALBEIT SOME
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MORE OF A DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE THAN OTHERS. PATTERN WITH THESE SYSTEMS HAS BEEN WETTER THAN
WHAT THE GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED...SO EXPECT WE WILL SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WX. A LEAD SHORT WAVE FROM THIS 2ND
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THU NIGHT/FRI AND KEPT POPS
RELATIVELY HIGH THU NIGHT FOR THE AREA. WX FRIDAY THROUGH SAT WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH WE GET DRY-SLOTTED. IF WE DO GET THE DRY
AIR IN THEN THE PRECIP WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE (AND POSSIBLY
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SAT) WHILE IF WE CAN KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE PRECIP COULD BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE. WE WILL ALSO
LIKELY SEE MORE HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS WITH THIS SYSTEM. BY SUNDAY
THE WAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH COOLER NW FLOW ALOFT
AFFECTING THE REGION. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

MOIST PACIFIC STORM MOVING INTO FLIGHT AREA AT THIS TIME. SOME
SHOWERS ALREADY ONGOING...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SNOW ABOVE 10000
FEET WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FLIGHT AREA TONIGHT
CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...WITH AREAS OF LIFR.

KALS WILL SEE THE LEAST IMPACT FROM THIS STORM. IT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY VFR TODAY...BUT COULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR TO EVEN
BRIEFLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVES THROUGH. KCOS IS ALREADY DOWN TO IFR DUE TO
PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE TERMINAL HOLDING
MOISTURE IN AND CEILINGS DOWN. COULD CATCH A BREAK FOR A WHILE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE GOING DOWN AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. FOR KPUB...CURRENTLY VFR...BUT COULD SEE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN SHOWERS AND STORMS AS EARLY AS
22Z. AFTER 00Z...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR AND OCCASIONALLY LIFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT TUESDAY
FOR COZ058-060-063-073-075-080-082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
TUESDAY FOR COZ059-061-066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW


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