Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 142353
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
553 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 553 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 125 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Showers will end from west to east this afternoon across the east
1/2 of the CWFA. Somewhat of a lull is expected into the evening,
with a chance of showers back into the east 1/2 of the region
overnight. Just low chance PoPs for some light showers. Activity
should remain scattered to widely scattered Thursday given modest
mid level support and lack of low level features. By late day into
Thursday evening, a cold front will settle south, reaching about
the Ohio River by Midnight Thursday night. Will continue with a
low thunder chance midday Thursday through early Thursday evening.
Shower chances will continue along and behind the front through
early Friday, then end from NW to SE during the afternoon. There
may be a brief wintry mix at the tail end, of no consequence or
impact. Most of Friday night should be dry. Toward daybreak
Saturday, light wintry precipitation chances will move into SEMO,
and far west KY. Overall the models were in good agreement, so a
consensus blend was used.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 125 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

High confidence in a unsettled and very wet extended. Medium
confidence with the timing and possible heavy rains next week.

The front that will move through Friday will try to lift back into
the region Saturday and will phase with a long wave trough rotating
through the region. This will bring another round of precipitation
Saturday and with the colder air in place we could see a wintry mix.
However any snow would be light and as temperatures warm into the
40s during the day it would all change over to liquid...melting any
snow that did accumulate. Little to no impact is expected for any
snow that might fall Saturday morning. Models are in fairly good
agreement that Saturday night and Sunday will be dry with high
pressure over us. By Sunday night a warm front lifts through the
area bringing warm air advection showers back to the region. That
will place in the warm sector late Sunday through at least
Wednesday. The trailing cold front will stall just northwest of the
area Tuesday into Wednesday. With the moist southerly flow we expect
an extended period of rain. Heavy rain will be possible as well with
PW`s around an inch and half at times. The models start to diverge
next week on if the front finally pushes through or stalls over the
region. Either way they place in a great deal of rainfall. Plan to
at least mention a chance of thunder Tuesday as LI,s go negative and
CAPE values around 1k.

Below normal temperatures Saturday will begin a warming trend as
we head through next week. As a matter of fact by Monday we could
be 20 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 553 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

A continuous stream of low-level moisture is expected through this
forecast period. IFR or LIFR ceilings will prevail through the
night. Some drizzle continues this evening over west Kentucky, but
mostly southeast of the TAF sites. However, showers will be
possible mainly at KEVV and KOWB late tonight into Thursday
morning. A better chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms
will spread south into these same locations late Thursday
afternoon. Confidence in TS is too low to mention in the forecast
at this time.

Southwest winds will persist tonight and may be gusty for much of
the night. Where the gusts drop out, LLWS will be a concern
tonight with 40-45kt southwest flow just off the surface. The
winds will increase Thursday and gusts over 25kts will be possible
in the afternoon. Ceilings will improve some Thursday, but only to
MVFR levels.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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