Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 190244

944 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

Issued at 944 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Clouds have proven to be much more stubborn than expected. Noticed
that the 850mb and 925mb winds from the KVWX VAD wind profile are
now out of the north northeast, which could push the clouds back
to the south and west a bit late this evening. Beginning to wonder
if the clearing isn`t going to more from north to south rather
than the west to east that is currently advertised. The RAP seems
to have a decent clue with the cloud and temperature trends, so used it
as a guide for this update, which has the clouds eventually
clearing the east very late tonight.

Most places still likely to drop to near 40 by morning. Patchy
frost will be possible over a lot of the area, but the most likely
areas will be in a zone from Cape Girardeau to Carbondale, where
temperatures will be in the upper 30s the longest. Still don`t
feel like this will be a significant or widespread frost even in
that area.

UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Wvapor loop showed a fairly energetic mid level low over wcntrl IN
moving SE. Area of showers with this fast moving feature over IN
should stay east of our SW IN counties this afternoon. Meanwhile an
expansive area of cu/strato-cu continues to move SSE across our
CWFA. Clouds up across IA quickly dissipated. That gives us a
better indication of how to track the west edge, and what to do
with the progression of the clouds the rest of the day. The cloud
bank moving south across central sections of IL appears more than
diurnally driven. So it may take some time through the late
afternoon and evening to completely rid the clouds, especially east
of the Mississippi.

Otherwise, overnight, once it clears, and with calm winds, cannot
rule out patchy late night frost portions of southern IL, into
southwest IN. This is based on the possibility of reaching coolest
MET guidance numbers, which is what we went with. Even with that,
given soil temps, and marginal conditions, if it does form, it`d be
spotty, and most likely on elevated surfaces that can radiate
"heat" most efficiently. Could be more in the way of dew. No
products will be issued, but a patchy mention will be in the
grid/public forecast in the aforementioned areas. Could be patchy
ground type fog too some areas.

High pressure will move east of the area Sunday. Dry air mass means
little in the way of cloud cover. Sunday night should be dry for
the most part too. However between about 08z-12z Monday, the models
bring a band of moisture into our northern counties (SRN IL, SW
IN), ahead of a mid level trof and embedded PVA, that could result
in isolated light showers. Will carry that slight chance across
the rest of the CWFA through the morning, then end chances Monday
afternoon, though a few sprinkles may linger SE sections (WRN KY)
before the left over dwindling moisture departs. In most cases,
would probably trend dry (been flip flopping a bit on these slight
chances), but given the degree of forcing the models have shown in
the omega and QG fields, slights are warranted. Most areas will
not see much if anything. Dry weather Monday night with high
pressure returning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Beyond Monday night`s cold frontal passage, an extremely uneventful
weather pattern is shaping up through the remainder of the week. To
start the period, an upper level ridge will be centered over the
Plains with a trough over the eastern U.S. Some lingering low
level moisture may result in scattered to broken stratocumulus on
Tuesday, especially in the northeastern 1/3 of our forecast area.

Beyond that, the upper level ridge is forecast to build east into
the Mississippi Valley through Thursday as the core of surface high
pressure gradually shifts south from the Great Lakes. Late in the
week, an approaching shortwave trough will be deflected to the south
as it runs into the ridge overhead. The resultant cut-off low that
parks itself over the Gulf Coast States next weekend will act to
keep any precipitation potential south of the immediate area.

Temperatures through the period will be near seasonable. Highs will
range through the 60s each day, but may close in on the 70 degree
mark by the weekend. Lows through the period will be in the 40s.
Guidance would suggest little concern for frost formation during
this time. However, Wednesday night may be an exception as we
currently have lows forecast near 40. If this proves to be a few
degrees too warm, then we may need to consider the addition of at
least patchy frost in later forecasts.


Issued at 640 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

All guidance in agreement in pushing 4-5kft overcast deck east of
KEVV and KOWB around 03Z. Meanwhile, winds are expected to taper
off to light and variable throughout the region by late evening.
Cannot rule out some patchy fog development at all sites
overnight, especially toward morning. As is typically the case,
hit it the hardest at KCGI. A light south southwest wind will
eventually mix down at all sites by midday Sunday. Some increase
in high clouds is expected by the end of the period.

The visibility sensor at KCGI is malfunctioning and consistently
reporting significant reduction to visibility when there is none.
With the tower being unmanned until sometime Sunday, will attempt
to have the sensor report processing turned off. No data is better
than misleading data.




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