Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 100927
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
327 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 326 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

The main topic of concern continues to be the ice and snow later
Thursday night into Friday night. There will be an impact on travel
across the region. The types and amounts of the various precipitation
types still remain in flux due to a persistent large spread in the
models. The potential for heavy ice or snow accumulations is still a
consideration.

As far as the individual model trends, the gfs has become one of the
most consistent models. It remains rather progressive with the 500
mb shortwave that ejects northeast from the lower Mississippi Valley
Friday. The 00z ecmwf has departed from its slower solution, and this
00z run is quite similar to the gfs. As a result, the forecast will
show a faster changeover to mixed precipitation from west to east on
Thursday night and Friday. The transition zone will include some
freezing rain, but the band of ice should be quite narrow behind the
fast-moving cold front. Bufkit precip type guidance indicates sleet
will be more dominant in the transition zone. Snow will eventually
become the dominant precip type.

The timing of the ending of the precip from west to east is critical
to amounts. The 00z gfs and ecmwf are relatively quick to end the
precip on Friday due to their faster progression of the 500 mb
shortwave. However, the 00z gfs ensemble mean (gefs) is notably
slower with its 500 mb shortwave as it ejects northeast across the
Tennessee Valley. There is also the potential for banded heavy precip
in a mid-level deformation zone on the northwest side of a closed
500 mb low, if it develops. The 00z model runs are in poor agreement
on whether a closed low will develop. Recent models that developed a
closed low painted heavy qpf across western Kentucky, southwest
Indiana, and se Illinois. The upshot of all this is that winter
precip will impact our region. Differences in model timing and qpf
preclude a detailed estimate of precip amounts. However, the
potential for a high impact winter storm does exist.

The only other impactful weather of note in the short term is dense
fog this morning. Much like yesterday, low stratus and fog will be
trapped under a low level inversion. There will be some diurnal
improvement today. As low level winds increase and veer more
southerly tonight, the models forecast the inversion to eventually
break. This will result in diminishing fog potential tonight. Areas
of light drizzle or very light rain will persist in the warm
advection pattern today and tonight. Rain will become widespread
Thursday ahead of the cold front. Despite a dense overcast, temps
will climb to around 60 today and Thursday due to the sheer strength
of the warm advection.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

The main story this weekend will continue to be the return of much
colder air to the region. Highs will be mainly in the 20s both days,
with early morning wind chills near zero early Sunday morning. The
models continue to indicate 850 mb temps will drop as low as the
minus teens this weekend. It should be noted that temps will likely
be even colder if we end up with snow/ice field across portions of
the region.

Sunday night and Monday, the models indicate a 500 mb shortwave will
rotate southeast across the upper Mississippi Valley. This feature
will be preceded by an arctic cold front that will be trailing
southeast of a clipper system diving southeast into the northern
half of IN. Highest chances of getting any light snows with this
feature will be over climo-favored regions of southeast IL/sw IN/nw
KY. Does not look to be too significant if this does occur. The main
effect of the frontal passage will be to usher in another arctic
blast later Monday/Tuesday time frame. Could once again see wind
chills 0 to minus 10 by Tuesday morning. Brrr...

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Jan 9 2018

Flight restricted cigs/vsbys continue as low level moisture is
going nowhere fast. Cigs will continue to be below 500 ft at most
of the terminals overnight into the early morning hours. Areas of
drizzle and/or light rain will be around as well. Vsbys will at
least be MVFR to IFR but could see vsbys dropping beyond that at
times but it will be hard to predict. Winds will be light and
variable but then pick up out of the south Wednesday morning and
afternoon and become gusty. We could see cigs rise to the 1500 ft
range by late afternoon, similar to today but then come back down
during the evening hours. Winds will stay up through the evening
hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...None.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KYZ001>010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...CW



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