Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 240631
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
131 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

ISOLATED STORMS MAY POSSIBLY OVERRUN AN OLD WARM FRONTAL (SECTOR)
BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH/WEST OF THE PAH FA. THIS
WILL IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES IN SEMO
TODAY.

OTHERWISE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WILL BE TO
RIDGE THE UPPER HIGH INTO/ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WITH TIME.
RIMFIRE CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...MAY IMPACT
THE AREA...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN SLGT CHANCE MENTIONABLE POPS IS
ANTICIPATED MAINLY FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN OR WESTERN COUNTIES ON
THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. THIS OCCURS AS
NWLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS SOME WEAK RIPPLE/WAVE INFLUENCE TOUCHING
ONE OFF IN THE DAYTIME HEAT/HUMIDITY.

THE BROADER EFFECT OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE DOME ALOFT WILL
BE TO GRADUALLY DRIVE TEMPS/HUMIDITY UPWARDS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CLOSER TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

SUMMER PATTERNS TEND TO STAGNATE...BUT THE ONE WE`RE IN SEEMS A BIT
DIFFERENT AS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INSTEAD OF EMBEDDED IN IT.

TWO NRN STREAM MID LEVEL SHRTWVS ARE PROGGED BY THE MED RANGE MODELS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...ONE DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND A STRONGER ONE ON THU (DAY 7). THE FIRST
SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO DRAG A COLD-TYPE SFC FRONT TO THE NRN FRINGE
OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STALL LATE
SUNDAY...THEN MOVE SLOWLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY MON. THIS
SCENARIO WILL PROVIDE LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR
MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 SUNDAY
THROUGH MON. AS A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW SPINS EWD THROUGH SRN CANADA
TOWARD MID WEEK...THE SRN CONUS RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN BY THE MED RANGE
MODELS TO BUILD FARTHER INTO THE MIDWEST IN RESPONSE. THOUGH THERE
WILL BE A DIURNAL SIGNAL...POPS SHOULD BE ALMOST NIL FOR OUR
AREA...EVEN IN THE NORTH...MON NIGHT-WED AS SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED
TO LIMIT ROBUST DEEP UPDRAFTS.

POPS RAMP UP SOME WED NIGHT/THU WITH THE APPROACH OF HEIGHT FALLS
AND THE SFC COLD FRONT...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF
THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AND MON...DEEPER INTO THE MID/UPPER RIDGE...MORE HEAT AND
POOLING OF MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR WEST OF THE MS RIVER...YIELDING THE
HEAT INDICES AROUND THE 105 MARK. THE THE HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA MID WEEK...WITH FIGURES
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 IN THE AFTERNOONS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 90S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH FOG MAINLY AT KCGI AND KPAH THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. DIURNAL CU AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION MOST LIKELY NEARER KCGI BUT TOO LOW PROBS TO
INCLUDE ITS MENTION.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$



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