Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 112331 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
631 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

The band of showers extending across southeast Missouri is
producing very efficient rainfall. One very reliable spotter
report to the northwest of KPOF has received over an inch from
this band since 16Z. No short range guidance has a clue, so just
had to force it in the grids. It is expanding eastward at around
20kts, so took it eastward along the Ohio through sunset and then
killed it off. Most of the area should only see a passing light
shower or period of drizzle tonight.

The cold front has basically stalled out just to our south over
west Tennessee, and would expect it to remain stationary until the
next mid/upper-level storm system passes by to the north of the
region Friday night. Persistence should be a good forecast
tonight and Friday, with overcast skies, a modest northerly breeze
and widely scattered mainly light showers across the Arkansas and
Tennessee border regions. With this in mind, played a lower diurnal
range compared to guidance, as much as possible with temperatures
through Friday night. Guidance should be much closer for highs
Saturday and lows Saturday night, after that next system moves by
and the surface high really surges through the area.

As for that next storm system, even the ECMWF has now dried out
Friday night, while the GFS and NAM remain dry. Decided to keep a
slight chance of showers going in the far southeast and across
much of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois Friday evening.
The forecast is now dry after 06Z Saturday. Rapid clearing is
expected Saturday, but a stiff northerly breeze and cool air will
make for a rather brisk day. Saturday night will be quite cool, with
portions of southern Illinois dropping into the middle 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

Another quiet day is on tap for Sunday as high pressure remains over
the region. However, late in the day on Sunday and into Sunday
night, high pressure will be shifting eastward and moisture will be
increasing over the region.

Models are still having a problem resolving the incoming front for
Monday and Monday night. Yesterdays runs hinted at the best timing
for any potential precip would be on Monday night. The 00Z ECMWF is
faster with bringing the front on through, thanks to a more
pronounced shortwave swinging southeast across the Midwest. However,
the 12Z run has slowed things back down yet again, even with the
more pronounced upper wave. Plans are to keep just a sliver of
slight chance pops in the far NW for Monday. Precipitation chances
look to continue into Monday night though, with the 12Z GFS still
indicating that to be the better time frame. The front weakens as it
approaches so coverage of showers and possibly a few storms is not
looking too widespread at this point. In addition, with the 00Z/12Z
ECMWF indicating a faster FROPA, will keep POPS in the slight chance
category for now.

The next problem is to figure out how long the moisture lingers in
the CWA on Tuesday. Models were fighting this same challenge
yesterday as well. Models essentially flip flopped and now the 12Z
GFS wants to linger the moisture/precip with the 00Z/12Z ECMWF
scouring things out with high pressure dominating the rest of the
week. The 12Z GFS wait until Tuesday night or Wednesday before
dry air finally filters into the region. But once the dry air
arrives, it does look tranquil for the rest of the week. The last
few runs of the GFS (00/06Z) show the chance for lingering showers
at least in the south for Tuesday with this lingering moisture. Even
though the 12Z GEM looks like the 00Z ECMWF, a few of the 12Z GFS
ensemble members hint at lingering precip on Tuesday, mainly in
SEMO, so will try to confine any small POPS to just in the west.

With the upper flow starting out zonal and then eventually becoming
more northwesterly with time, do not expect any huge fluctuations in
temperatures this upcoming week. Highs should be in the 70s with
lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 631 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

Low level moisture trapped under an inversion will continue to
produce IFR/MVFR cigs and/or vsbys through most of the period. My
see VFR conditions after 20-22Z. Northerly winds AOB 10 knots will
veer slightly to the north northeast around 15Z, then back to
north by the end of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP





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